WrestleStat Rankings - Week 9

[andegre]

Events missing from this weeks rankings:
- Southern Scuffle

Wrestler Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

Dual Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament

Statistical Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/statistical

Hodge Watch: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/hodge

(Create your own rankings) Tournament Projection Tool: https://www.wrestlestat.com/tourney/projection

[Big Bird]

Andegre,

Did you incorporate a change in your formula? Seems that after this last week, a much greater emphasis is found on head to head matches and recent results.

I know CKLV, Midlands, and South Beach duals are all now in the results, which helps a ton, but that isn't all.

I think the rankings are even better now, but something drastic happened.

Since this is an NDSU board, I'll use 2 NDSU examples.

1. 165- Anthony Valencia has been in the top 7 of your rankings at 165 since week 5 of last season. Now, he suddenly dropped 16 spots this past week and slots in right behind NDSU's Andrew Fogarty, who beat him at CKLV. I think his current ranking of 23 is more accurate than his old ranking of #7 based off of his results (talent and reputation wise, he's probably still top 7).

2. 174- NDSU's Charley Popp jumped from #241 all the way up to #67 this week, despite his results not changing significantly. He has gotten more opportunities against D1 competition of late, but he hasn't lit the world on fire with those results (his best win in recent weeks is Max Elling of Columbia, who just so happens to be ranked #67 at 165 too). With the exception of being added to the database as a freshman and the first couple weeks of that year, Popp has been exclusively ranked in the 200's and even 300's.

[andegre]

Yes, they did. I posted on another forum (don't remeber which one) that a "bug" was found [again]. Ugh.

This time, I accidentally REMOVED the process that "fixes" the head-to-head results, my "outliers" process.

I re-implemented that into the algorithm and it's back to normal.

I was getting frustrated with the rankings as well since they weren't aligning like they should have been, like last season. I received a HUGE amount of [negative] feedback about the rankings the first 8 weeks...finally clicked in my head that I should dig a little deeper to see why.

[Gladiator Dad]

Yes, they did. I posted on another forum (don't remeber which one) that a "bug" was found [again]. Ugh.

This time, I accidentally REMOVED the process that "fixes" the head-to-head results, my "outliers" process.

I re-implemented that into the algorithm and it's back to normal.

I was getting frustrated with the rankings as well since they weren't aligning like they should have been, like last season. I received a HUGE amount of [negative] feedback about the rankings the first 8 weeks...finally clicked in my head that I should dig a little deeper to see why.

Andergre, did the bug also effect the dual predictions? they seem to be a bit out of wack from what they previously were.

[andegre]

Not directly, no.

The dual comparison page utilizes the prediction engine to "predict" the match result for each of the ten matches. The prediction engine only uses the rankings process to determine which RANGE of rankings should be used to determine anticipated points for and points against.

If you have some examples of ones that look off, post a link here and I'll check them out.

Thank you!

[Gladiator Dad]

Not directly, no.

The dual comparison page utilizes the prediction engine to "predict" the match result for each of the ten matches. The prediction engine only uses the rankings process to determine which RANGE of rankings should be used to determine anticipated points for and points against.

If you have some examples of ones that look off, post a link here and I'll check them out.

Thank you!

Well specifically I was looking at Clay Ream vs Taleb Rahmani. I wanted to see how last night played out prior to having you look into this. Prior to Clay's second win over Rahmani in the dual last night I was looking at the record versus common opponents Clay had a better record over those opponents along with a prior head to head win. Clay was 10-4 to Taleb's 8-10 record vs the common opponents. The better common opponents record, along with the previous head to head win I found it curious as to why the prediction element of your formula had Clay loosing 11-5 and after a second head to head win by Clay last night the formula still predicts a loss by Clay with the same 11-5 score.

I really appreciate your website and find it valuable in looking up and researching wrestlers and I can't even begin to fathom the amount of work and time that you have put into the site. That's why when you said that you had found a bug I thought the fix might have had an adverse effect on the dual prediction element.

https://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/.../rahmani-taleb