The Real JMU vs NDSU thread

[bisonlax44]

Last year their CB were able to man up our WRs 1 on 1 and they dumped everyone else in the box to stop the run. I suspect they will do the same thing this year. For us to be successful either:

1) Our WR need to beat the CB to pull the safeties away from the line.
or
2) Our TEs need to be able to get open down field.

or
3) RBs need to catch the ball out of the backfield on PA. As you inferred, they are going to sell out to stop the run.

If we see big numbers from our WRs, I'm afraid the Bison fell behind and had to throw to try and catch up. Not where we want to be. Chances are we have a full stable of RBs ready for the game (Brooks likely a game-time decision but expect him to suit and be limited on touches) so we should run the ball, wear them out, execute play action, and win in the 4th quarter. Power kills speed.

[James Madison]

Looking forward to the game and it is obvious that NDSU has a better team than last year. The good thing for JMU is that it is being played on a neutral field. The FargoDome has to be one of the best, if not the best, homefield advantage in college football.

You will see a JMU team that is much different from last year. The offense isn’t nearly as good mostly due to an injured and inexperienced offensive line. The defense is much better and becomes outstanding if you are forced into passing downs.

I expect Stick will run the ball significantly more than usual because JMU will absolutely be selling out to stop the run on 1st and 2nd down. A little read option, QB bootleg, or QB power will be very hard to defend in addition to accounting for the RB’s.
To me, that is the difference. If Stick can be effective getting first downs with his legs the Bison should win. If Stick has to rely on passing to get first downs it will play into JMU’s strength.

I hope the game matches the buildup as the best final in recent memory.
For me, it is easy to see why NDSU is the favorite...the running game is more dominant than it has ever been.
Safe travels to Frisco.

[NoDak]

Looking forward to the game and it is obvious that NDSU has a better team than last year. The good thing for JMU is that it is being played on a neutral field. The FargoDome has to be one of the best, if not the best, homefield advantage in college football.

You will see a JMU team that is much different from last year. The offense isn’t nearly as good mostly due to an injured and inexperienced offensive line. The defense is much better and becomes outstanding if you are forced into passing downs.

I expect Stick will run the ball significantly more than usual because JMU will absolutely be selling out to stop the run on 1st and 2nd down. A little read option, QB bootleg, or QB power will be very hard to defend in addition to accounting for the RB’s.
To me, that is the difference. If Stick can be effective getting first downs with his legs the Bison should win. If Stick has to rely on passing to get first downs it will play into JMU’s strength.

I hope the game matches the buildup as the best final in recent memory.
For me, it is easy to see why NDSU is the favorite...the running game is more dominant than it has ever been.
Safe travels to Frisco.

This is an even-handed analysis.

My thought is that if Stick has to throw more than 5 passes 15+ yards down field in the air it is probably not a good day for NDSU. I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where JMU is struggling to cover those. There might be 1-2 times where he catches them but if he has to throw that many odds are things are not going well for NDSU. However, if he throws a ton of passes in the 3-7 yards down field range, likely to RB and TE I could imagine that being good for NDSU.

I believe, though, that NDSU will be very careful about passes. If things are going well for them I anticipate 15-20 attempts--mostly short and safe--passes and completing a high percentage of them (70%+). Maybe 25 at the highest unless they find a play that works really well against JMU. Again, if things are going well for them (and that is an IF) I could see them racking up 150-250 rushing yards and controlling the clock for 35+ minutes.

If things are not going well for them their TOP would be 25-28 minutes. Rushing for less than 120 yards. 30+ Pass attempts with completion percentage in the 45-55% range and 3+ turnovers while forcing 0-1 turnover.

[wagsabison]

Looking forward to the game and it is obvious that NDSU has a better team than last year. The good thing for JMU is that it is being played on a neutral field. The FargoDome has to be one of the best, if not the best, homefield advantage in college football.

You will see a JMU team that is much different from last year. The offense isn’t nearly as good mostly due to an injured and inexperienced offensive line. The defense is much better and becomes outstanding if you are forced into passing downs.

I expect Stick will run the ball significantly more than usual because JMU will absolutely be selling out to stop the run on 1st and 2nd down. A little read option, QB bootleg, or QB power will be very hard to defend in addition to accounting for the RB’s.
To me, that is the difference. If Stick can be effective getting first downs with his legs the Bison should win. If Stick has to rely on passing to get first downs it will play into JMU’s strength.

I hope the game matches the buildup as the best final in recent memory.
For me, it is easy to see why NDSU is the favorite...the running game is more dominant than it has ever been.
Safe travels to Frisco.

Anyone who thinks this game is going to be one-sided one way or another is just dead wrong. Two very good teams that don't make a lot mistakes and play sound defense. Can't wait till Saturday!

[td577]

Anyone who thinks this game is going to be one-sided one way or another is just dead wrong. Two very good teams that don't make a lot mistakes and play sound defense. Can't wait till Saturday!

It's going to be one sided. You are dead wrong. Sorry.

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[MAKBison]

It's going to be one sided. You are dead wrong. Sorry.

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i tend to agree more with this

[NoDak]

It's going to be one sided. You are dead wrong. Sorry.

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I don't know how close it will be. I certainly thought that SDSU and JMU would be a fun game and it turned into a laugher. It is certainly possible that it will come down to the last 5 minutes. But if NDSU plays like they did against SDSU--or if JMU plays like they did against SDSU--it could be over quickly. Yet NDSU has outscored their opponents by an average margin of 42-9 giving up 2 touchdowns and 3 fieldgoals against a couple really solid offensive teams during these playoffs. JMU had a much harder set of opponents but was not nearly as dominant only winning one game by more than 14 points. The truth is we don't really know how the game will turn out. If NDSU can do to JMU what they have done to the last couple good offenses they MIGHT be able to pull out a big victory. But if JMU forces Stick to throw the ball down field to try to get back into the game we could be looking at a blow-out the other way.

That isn't to say it WON'T be a close game. But that at this point we really don't know. If I had to guess I think that the margin of victory will be between 10-17 points. But that is just a guess at this point. Not a blow out. But not a real nailbiter like so many are predicting.

[Jim Puetz]

I also agree that it is going to be one-sided in favor of the Bison

[NDSUSR]

Never underestimate vengeance as a motivational factor.

[wagsabison]

It's going to be one sided. You are dead wrong. Sorry.

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I wouldn't be against that.