Originally Posted by
NoDak
I am fine with people looking at the SDSU game against NDSU for insight into how to beat NDSU. There are probably things that a trained eye can find. But I think that it should then be looked for in more recent games and make sure that it is still the case and not simply a "one-off" thing that happened. For that matter there might be kernels of knowledge hidden in the Robert Morris game. But, again, if you think it will help you it is best to look and make sure that the players are still doing it.
The logic of looking at the SDSU game is seductive: "Here is a team that beat NDSU this year. What did the do to accomplish that?" But it can lead to a fool's errand.
1. I don't think that JMU has receivers the caliber of Weineke and Goeddert. While Stapleton is good, I don't think he is as good as these two.
2. NDSU was still finding its feet after losing Dunn just 2 weeks earlier.
3. NDSU was in the midst of a brutal stretch in which it played 4 playoff teams in 4 weeks and bookended by YSU and Illinois State (both above .500 teams). That is a pretty brutal stretch.
What they are trying to pass for "analysis" is, "SDSU beat NDSU; JMU beat SDSU. Therefore, JMU will beat NDSU (JMU>SDSU>NDSU). While it makes sense it assumes that the quality of play is static which is a bad assumption. I think almost all of Stick's interceptions took place in a 3 game stretch (WIU, UNI, SDSU) and he threw none before that and very few, if any, after that. It assumes that SDSU is the exact same quality of team as faced NDSU and that JMU is going to be able to do the same thing against NDSU as they did against SDSU. These are bad assumptions. First of all, I don't think that JMU will have a running back run for 200+ yards. Also, the strength of JMUs defense is their pass defense (IMO) and their ability to create turnovers in pass defense. SDSU's offense is a vertical offense based on getting Weineke and Goeddert in vertical routes. This plays right into the hands of the JMU defense. They also have a very good run defense. But their strength is their pass defense. Finally, there are stories coming out that Goeddert, and possibly Christion, were dealing with injuries that they weren't dealing with when they played NDSU.
By the same token there are probably things that can be gleaned from watching JMU vs Weber St. But be careful coming too much to general conclusions based on 1 game.
It is entirely possible that JMU will beat NDSU tomorrow. But I doubt that the game much resembles either team's game against SDSU.