2017 Sagarin Says

[El_Chapo]

man I'm sick of eating cupcakes 5 straight ick

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0 25.7%
10-1 40.0%
9-2.. 24.9%
8-3.... 7.9%
7-4.... 1.3%
6-5.... 0.1%
5-6.... 0.004%
4-7.... 0.00004%
3-8.... 0.00000003%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v. Mo.St.. 99.8% -40.0
@ Ind.St. 98.8% -30.5
@ YSU.... 72.8%.. -8.0
v. W. Ill... 83.9% -13.5
v. UNI..... 93.8% -21.0
@ SDSU.. 69.9%.. -7.0
v. USD.... 84.3% -13.5
@ Ill. St.. 76.4%.. -9.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
@ SDSU.. 69.9%.. -7.0
@ YSU.... 72.8%.. -8.0
@ Ill. St.. 76.4%.. -9.5
v. W. Ill... 83.9% -13.5
v. USD.... 84.3% -13.5
v. UNI..... 93.8% -21.0
@ Ind.St. 98.8% -30.5
v. Mo.St.. 99.8% -40.0

[Hammersmith]

Sorry guys. I’ve been in the middle of moving so life is a bit upside down at the moment. Hopefully, I’ll be able to get back to being a regular contributor to this thread soon.

Ditto. Not moving, but busy as hell. Just don't have the energy to spare this year.

[thebootfitter]

Ditto. Not moving, but busy as hell. Just don't have the energy to spare this year.

And no one is taking me up on the spreadsheet offer. I may be able to get to it now and then, but definitely don't have the capacity this year to commit every week.

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin's Week 12 Predictions

						
						
Rank Team                Sagarin Predict Result Diff						
45	North Dakota State  	76.11				
63	Iowa State          	71.30	+2.40	+20.00	+17.60	
117	Weber State         	57.30	+16.40	+17.00	+0.60	
244	Incarnate Word      	19.26	+59.26	+58.00	-1.26	
159	Montana             	48.89	+29.63	+12.00	-17.63	
84	Western Illinois    	65.15	+8.55	+7.00	-1.55	
129	Southern Illinois   	55.35	+23.17	+28.00	+4.83	
187	Indiana State       	42.99	+35.53	+17.00	-18.53	
85	South Dakota        	64.92	+8.78	+40.00	+31.22	
76	South Dakota State  	66.66	+11.86	+20.00	+8.14	
116	Northern Iowa       	57.65	+16.05	 -20.00	-36.05	
202	Missouri State      	38.50	+35.20	+35.00	-0.20	
80	Youngstown State    	65.52	+13.00	+24.00	+11.00	
						
90	Illinois State      	64.00				
				Total Diff:	-1.83	
	Home Field	2.41				

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
						
Rank SagRank RATING Team                SOS SOSRank Conference						
1	45	76.11	North Dakota State  	29.18	247	Missouri Valley
2	67	69.98	James Madison       	41.80	214	Colonial
3	76	66.66	South Dakota State  	38.59	229	Missouri Valley
4	80	65.52	Youngstown State    	38.67	227	Missouri Valley
5	84	65.15	Western Illinois    	49.00	177	Missouri Valley
6	85	64.92	South Dakota        	45.99	197	Missouri Valley
7	90	64.00	Illinois State      	36.28	235	Missouri Valley
8	91	63.75	Sam Houston State   	44.63	205	Southland
9	99	61.90	Jacksonville State  	56.25	133	Ohio Valley
10	108	59.47	The Citadel         	38.17	232	Southern
11	115	57.85	Central Arkansas    	46.41	195	Southland
12	116	57.65	Northern Iowa       	53.69	156	Missouri Valley
13	117	57.30	Weber State         	54.51	147	Big Sky
14	118	57.15	Tennessee-Martin    	57.63	122	Ohio Valley
15	122	56.73	Wofford             	44.92	203	Southern
16	126	56.07	Eastern Washington  	61.43	85	Big Sky
17	127	56.05	Villanova           	46.83	193	Colonial
18	129	55.35	Southern Illinois   	38.72	226	Missouri Valley
19	131	54.55	Montana State       	66.69	57	Big Sky
20	135	54.32	Richmond            	43.14	208	Colonial
21	136	54.14	Samford             	55.55	140	Southern
22	139	53.27	Chattanooga         	58.52	115	Southern
23	142	52.62	Northern Arizona    	61.82	83	Big Sky
24	143	52.32	Stony Brook         	41.30	216	Colonial
25	144	51.92	North Dakota        	59.58	107	Big Sky

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
						
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank						
P5	ACC                 	78.60	93.74	10		
G5	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.23	78.10	4		
P5	BIG 12              	78.39	93.75	8		
FCS	BIG SKY             	48.52	57.30	1		
FCS	BIG SOUTH           	42.10	48.74	1		
P5	BIG TEN             	77.51	93.56	9		
FCS	COLONIAL            	50.12	69.98	1		
G5	CONFERENCE USA      	57.29	72.85	#REF!		
NA	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	62.19	72.48	#REF!		
FCS	I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	42.04	42.04	1		
FCS	IVY LEAGUE          	40.93	59.00	1		
G5	MAC                 	56.48	68.81	1		
FCS	MID-EASTERN         	27.87	59.69	1		
FCS	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.38	66.66	1		
G5	MWC                 	60.42	72.66	1		
FCS	NORTHEAST           	33.18	45.06	1		
FCS	OHIO VALLEY         	43.30	78.20	1		
P5	PAC-12              	75.58	87.46	8		
FCS	PATRIOT             	33.03	40.69	1		
FCS	PIONEER             	31.81	101.97	#REF!		
P5	SEC                 	71.86	85.50	10		
FCS	SOUTHERN            	43.98	63.75	1		
FCS	SOUTHLAND           	35.84	67.22	1		
G5	SUN BELT            	49.67	57.08	1		
FCS	SWAC                	24.59	66.48	1		

[thebootfitter]

A couple folks have requested the spreadsheet. I just dusted it off and posted stats from the current Sagarin ratings. It appears that a couple items need to be updated. (See the #REF! errors above.) Usually this happens because he alters the official team names in his list. For example, I noticed what used to be "Army" is now referred to as "Army West Point."

Bisonboone11 and X-factor -- if either one of you are handy with Excel formulas and troubleshooting references, etc., I can hand it over as-is. If you'd prefer me to fix the spreadsheet to be current before I send it along, I can find time to do that this weekend.

Oops... I just noticed that I didn't update it for current season opponents either. He he he... Easy fix, though.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 22.0%. -3.7%
10-1 38.8%. -1.2%
9-2.. 27.3% +2.4%
8-3.... 9.8% +1.9%
7-4.... 1.9% +0.6%
6-5.... 0.2% +0.1%
5-6.... 0.008%
4-7.... 0.00008%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
@ Ind.St. 98.6% -30.0. -0.2% +0.5
@ YSU.... 64.4%.. -5.0. -8.4% +3.0
v. W. Ill... 83.4% -13.0. -0.5% +0.5
v. UNI..... 92.0% -19.0. -1.8% +2.0
@ SDSU.. 73.6%. -8.5. +3.7% -1.5
v. USD.... 79.9% -11.5. -4.4% +2.0
@ Ill. St.. 76.7% -10.0 +0.3%. -0.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change. Opp.. Win%.. Line
+1 @ YSU.... 64.4%.. -5.0
-1. @ SDSU.. 73.6%.. -8.5
.... @ Ill. St.. 76.7% -10.0
+1 v. USD.... 79.9% -11.5
-1. v. W. Ill... 83.4% -13.0
.... v. UNI..... 92.0% -19.0
.... @ Ind.St. 98.6% -30.0

[MNLonghorn10]

yeesh.. 28 pt wins sure look good for anybody else, but NDSU can't afford them, need to win by more.

[X-Factor]

A couple folks have requested the spreadsheet. I just dusted it off and posted stats from the current Sagarin ratings. It appears that a couple items need to be updated. (See the #REF! errors above.) Usually this happens because he alters the official team names in his list. For example, I noticed what used to be "Army" is now referred to as "Army West Point."

Bisonboone11 and X-factor -- if either one of you are handy with Excel formulas and troubleshooting references, etc., I can hand it over as-is. If you'd prefer me to fix the spreadsheet to be current before I send it along, I can find time to do that this weekend.

Oops... I just noticed that I didn't update it for current season opponents either. He he he... Easy fix, though.

Sure, send it over

[SoCalBison]

Despite failing to cover the predictor, Bison move up 2 more spots this week to #46.