2017 Sagarin Says

[Christopher Moen]

Remember that one time President Bresciani flew to India and the SBoHE and Good Ole Boys club threw a fit because it wasn’t coach, even when the fee was eventually paid by a third party? Hopefully they give Dean some compression socks next time.

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[Bison 4 Life]

Remember that one time President Bresciani flew to India and the SBoHE and Good Ole Boys club threw a fit because it wasn’t coach, even when the fee was eventually paid by a third party? Hopefully they give Dean some compression socks next time.

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he has to pay for them himself.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin silliness:

I finally read what his SOS numbers mean. Basically, he uses the main rating to compute what rating it would take for a team to go .500 versus that particular schedule. Home/away is accounted for.

So NDSU's schedule rating is currently 45.98. That means a team with that rating would be expected to be 4-4 at this point in the season. Actual teams around that mark are UND, Albany, Austin Peay & Georgia Southern.

So I took it the other way. NDSU's current rating is 75.63. The schedule of the team closest to that number is Baylor at 75.65. Baylor has the 14th toughest schedule to date according to Sagarin and NDSU would be projected to go 4-4 against it. It's actually pretty interesting to think that there are only 13 schedules out there where NDSU is likely to have gone less than .500. Wonder what that will look like at the end of the year?

[SoCalBison]

Bison drop 6 spots this week from 43 to 49. Frankly, I expected a bigger fall after yesterday.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's Nov 4 ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
10-1 55.5% +12.0%
9-2.. 38.2% +22.2%
8-3.... 6.3%. +4.4%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
v. USD.... 70.7%.. -7.5 -1.7% +0.5
@ Ill. St.. 78.6% -10.5 +0.3% -0.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change Opp.. Win%.. Line
... v. USD.... 70.7%.. -7.5
... @ Ill. St.. 78.6% -10.5

[Hammerhead]

As of this week, 7 of the top 9 teams are in the MVFC.

[JDZ]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Why not the current rankings? Why 2.61 points?

[bisonaudit]

Why not the current rankings? Why 2.61 points?

because I haven’t updated that sentence all year. I’m using the current rankings.

i think I got that number from Wayne Winston’s book mathletics. Don’t remember for sure. In any event a bye week is historically worth something like a field goal based on various analysis. When I set things up I just picked one of them I’d seen recently.

[JDZ]

because I haven’t updated that sentence all year. I’m using the current rankings.

i think I got that number from Wayne Winston’s book mathletics. Don’t remember for sure. In any event a bye week is historically worth something like a field goal based on various analysis. When I set things up I just picked one of them I’d seen recently.

Okay. I figured you were using the current rankings, but nobody on bisonville has ever caught you in a mistake. I thought the 2.61 was maybe a mistake, too, since Sagarin is using 2.14.

[bisonaudit]

Okay. I figured you were using the current rankings, but nobody on bisonville has ever caught you in a mistake. I thought the 2.61 was maybe a mistake, too, since Sagarin is using 2.14.

That’s not true. Bowler got me just the other week being too aggressive advocating a PAT2 when it wasn’t the best choice. I make mistakes all the time.

Sagarin’s 2.14 is home field. I use the number published each week for home field.