2017 Sagarin Says

[Bison 4 Life]

How is SDSU coming out harder than USD? I realize one at home and one on road, but is there a bye in there or something?

I think it was from where they started. SDSU was always listed as our hardest game of the season. I think by the time it's played, it will probably be USD

[bisonaudit]

How is SDSU coming out harder than USD? I realize one at home and one on road, but is there a bye in there or something?

home v road. 4.14 point swing and the South Dakota schools are separated by somewhat less than 4 points in the ratings. So SDSU away is coming out a half point harder which is basically nothing.

[Hammerhead]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings

[Christopher Moen]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings

Outside the F'Hawkers not being in the top-60, I would say the site needs better variables in its equation. Seriously, 5-1 Elon is ranked #3?

[MNLonghorn10]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings

Someone needs to scrap that computer system

[NDSU1980]

Outside the F'Hawkers not being in the top-60, I would say the site needs better variables in its equation. Seriously, 5-1 Elon is ranked #3?

Heck, they aren't even the F'hawkers according to that site. Has them listed as the sioux. I'd say more than a little credibility problem there.

[LongLostAlum]

This site has NDSU at #5 with Wofford at #1 although it does say rankings are more reliable after week 8.
http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/ratings

Their PWR (power) rankings seemed about right, but their overall RANK really strange.

Also noticed on Sagarin how weak our strength of schedule rank is so far, (214) out of 254 teams.

[thebootfitter]

Also noticed on Sagarin how weak our strength of schedule rank is so far, (214) out of 254 teams.

Mississippi Valley State? Robert Morris? Missouri State? Indiana State? Sounds pretty weak to me. Especially when a lot of other teams get to play an FBS team OOC to (usually) boost their SoS a little bit. We'll see that metric continue to change as we get further into the slate of Valley teams. We should end up in the 160 to 180 range, I would think, which is about right for a Valley team that doesn't play NDSU and has a weak OOC.

[LongLostAlum]

Mississippi Valley State? Robert Morris? Missouri State? Indiana State? Sounds pretty weak to me. Especially when a lot of other teams get to play an FBS team OOC to (usually) boost their SoS a little bit. We'll see that metric continue to change as we get further into the slate of Valley teams. We should end up in the 160 to 180 range, I would think, which is about right for a Valley team that doesn't play NDSU and has a weak OOC.

Fortunately, we beat those teams by pretty wide margins, so the weak schedule didn't impact us negatively in the Sagarin ratings. You're right, we can certainly expect our SoS to improve with the remainder of our Valley schedule.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 45.0% +5.1%
10-1 40.2%. -0.7%
9-2.. 12.9%. -3.0%
8-3.... 1.8%. -1.2%
7-4.... 0.1%. -0.2%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
v. UNI..... 85.2% -14.0 -2.5% +1.5
@ SDSU.. 75.1%.. -9.0 -1.2% +0.5
v. USD.... 79.8% -11.5 +2.6% -1.5
@ Ill. St.. 88.1% -16.0 -3.9% +3.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change Opp.. Win%.. Line
... @ SDSU.. 75.1%.. -9.0
... v. USD.... 79.8% -11.5
... v. UNI..... 85.2% -14.0
... @ Ill. St.. 88.1% -16.0