2017 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

W-L chance change
11-0 28.5% +6.5%
10-1 41.0% +2.1%
9-2.. 23.1%. -4.2%
8-3.... 6.5% -3.3%
7-4.... 0.9% -1.0%
6-5.... 0.1% -0.1%
5-6.... 0.002%

Opp....... Win%.. Line.. change
@ YSU.... 69.9%.. -7.0. +5.5%. -2.0
v. W. Ill... 84.7% -14.0. +1.3%. -1.0
v. UNI..... 94.2% -21.5. +2.2%. -2.5
@ SDSU.. 71.7%.. -7.5.. -1.9% +1.0
v. USD.... 81.3% -12.0. +1.4%. -0.5
@ Ill. St.. 87.7% -15.5 +11.0%. -5.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Change. Opp.. Win%.. Line
.... @ YSU.... 69.9%.. -7.0
.... @ SDSU.. 71.7%.. -7.5
+1 v. USD.... 81.3% -12.0
+1 v. W. Ill... 84.7% -14.0
-2. @ Ill. St.. 87.7% -15.5
.... v. UNI..... 94.2% -21.5

[MrSnuffleupagus]

Interesting that according to Sagarin, this weekend's game will be our toughest. I would have thought SDSU would be.

[bisonaudit]

Interesting that according to Sagarin, this weekend's game will be our toughest. I would have thought SDSU would be.

They're basically the same.

[RasterImage]

It is odd to see that we have almost a 19 in 20 chance in defeating UNI. (Not that I am am complaining.)

[thebootfitter]

It is odd to see that we have almost a 19 in 20 chance in defeating UNI. (Not that I am am complaining.)

If there's ever a time that I discount statistical inferences, it is when we play UNI. Ha ha! Really any game in the Valley, but especially UNI. I don't know if they REALLY feel this way, but it is almost as if they play like UND used to in the '90s -- playing JUST to beat the Bison. Rest of the season, be damned.

[Hammersmith]

Just a note, the gap in Sagarin between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS is just enormous this year. It's the same as the gap between the P5 and the G5. Or from the top of the G5 to the bottom. A 10 point gap is just massive.

[thebootfitter]

Just a note, the gap in Sagarin between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS is just enormous this year. It's the same as the gap between the P5 and the G5. Or from the top of the G5 to the bottom. A 10 point gap is just massive.

Wow, that is pretty crazy! I wonder if that will persist all year now that the OOC games are mostly (all?) finished.

While there are some very strong teams in the Valley, results like NAU and ISUr make me question whether the gap is really that big on the field. Maybe that was an anomaly. And maybe ISUr won't turn out to be so strong this year or NAU really is that good.

[Herd]

Wow, that is pretty crazy! I wonder if that will persist all year now that the OOC games are mostly (all?) finished.

While there are some very strong teams in the Valley, results like NAU and ISUr make me question whether the gap is really that big on the field. Maybe that was an anomaly. And maybe ISUr won't turn out to be so strong this year or NAU really is that good.

It seems like Valley teams are able to withstand P5/G5 games much better than other FCS leagues. That doesn't always translate down to a he FCS games however. That's a good win by NAU, I didn't expect it.

[SoCalBison]

Anyone know (or want to guess) why Sagarin hasn't updated yet with this weekend's results?

[SDbison]

Anyone know (or want to guess) why Sagarin hasn't updated yet with this weekend's results?

I was thinking the same thing. Did his computer crash?