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Thread: 2017 Sagarin Says

  1. #181
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    I hope it's Elon VS Monmouth in frisco

  2. #182
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    According to these numbers we have over a 50% chance of winning the title? Am I reading that correctly?

  3. #183
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by 90 BISON View Post
    According to these numbers we have over a 50% chance of winning the title? Am I reading that correctly?
    We were over 50% to win in '14-'15, '13-'14, and '12-'13 to start the tournament as well. Over 40% last year without the profoundly favorable bracket we have this time around.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  4. #184
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Weighted for the likelihood of playing them, the average rating of our prospective quarter final opponents is 7.62 points lower than JMU's and our semifinal is 4.87 points lower. While round 2 our matchup is only 1.19 points harder. Directionally, that's the only one that makes sense, because in theory the higher seeded team should not only be better, they should also get an easier draw.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  5. #185
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    If you flipped NDSU and JMU while leaving the rest of the bracket untouched. NDSU’s projected chance of winning the title would decrease 17% to 43.6%. While JMU’s would increase 33% to 34.7%.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  6. #186
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Comparing average Sagarin ratings of the 3 potential opponents in the quarterfinals, JMU has the toughest game with average opponent rating of 57.50 and NDSU has the easiest at 53.25 which really isn't that far apart.
    It's OK to not be OK.

  7. #187
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Hammerhead View Post
    Comparing average Sagarin ratings of the 3 potential opponents in the quarterfinals, JMU has the toughest game with average opponent rating of 57.50 and NDSU has the easiest at 53.25 which really isn't that far apart.
    The committee did JMU no favors that's for sure. I thought the 3 best unseeded teams (WIU, Stony Brook, and Weber St) are all in JMU's quarter of the bracket and the two best seeded teams not named JMU or NDSU (SDSU and UCA) are in their half of the bracket. Their route could go Stony Brook then WIU/SUU, then SDSU/UCA to get to Frisco. I'll gladly take NAU, then Wofford/Furman, then JSU/SHSU/USD over that.

  8. #188
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Yeah our half is definitively easier, and I don't think it's particularly close.

    However I'd have to say that the committee would disagree with this statement. I think they'd favor SHSU and JSU over New England patriots on a neutral field.
    1. The FCS was the Best option for NDSU for a very long time.
    2. As a general rule- the FCS sucks at football and has proven that is not committed to football at all.
    3. It's time to go FBS

  9. #189
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by MankatoBison View Post
    Yeah our half is definitively easier, and I don't think it's particularly close.

    However I'd have to say that the committee would disagree with this statement. I think they'd favor SHSU and JSU over New England patriots on a neutral field.
    They probably put them in our bracket to work on humility.....

    (BTW, they owed us this after the 2015 bracket of death.....)

  10. #190
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    Default Re: 2017 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Hammerhead View Post
    Comparing average Sagarin ratings of the 3 potential opponents in the quarterfinals, JMU has the toughest game with average opponent rating of 57.50 and NDSU has the easiest at 53.25 which really isn't that far apart.
    JMU potential quarterfinal opponents are all rated over 62.50. ??
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

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