Page 12 of 12 FirstFirst ... 2101112
Results 111 to 118 of 118

Thread: Week 9 Polls

  1. #111
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Seattle & Minneapolis
    Posts
    1,363

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by BisonVet View Post
    This has been raised a few times and at least for me, that may not have made any difference. As I recall practically everyone Gabrud threw to in the second half caught the ball and scored.
    That's valid as well, but not all poll voters will see it the same way. The fact remains that Kupp was out of the game for a half, and right or wrong, that carries some weight with voters.

  2. #112
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    St. Paul
    Posts
    19,094

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    Got it. Thanks. They have a very good team, their persistently high rating perhaps speaks more to how poor the rest of our division really is. Seems like there really are only a handfull of FCS teams who have a legit chance to win it all.
    Football is wildly unpredictable so it probably depends on what you mean by legit chance.

    The best score prediction systems in the world are going to miss about 1/3 of the games by 14 points or more in one direction or the other. The spread between the last at-large team into the playoff field and the best team in the field will probably be around 20 points.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  3. #113
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    St. Paul
    Posts
    19,094

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by Mayville Bison View Post
    I'll give you that. Their crappy teams are crappier than our crappy teams and they have more of them.

    To change the goalposts a little which group would you take

    NDSU EWU
    SDSU UM
    WIU UND
    UNI CP
    YSU NAU
    USD SUU
    ISUr WSU

    Just grabbed the top 7 (arguably) of each to take out the layups. BTW, great conversation!
    Using today's Sagarin ratings if every team in one column played a home and home with every team in the other column the expected record would be:

    MVFC 64 Big Sky 34
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  4. #114
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Seattle & Minneapolis
    Posts
    1,363

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    Got it. Thanks. They have a very good team, their persistently high rating perhaps speaks more to how poor the rest of our division really is. Seems like there really are only a handfull of FCS teams who have a legit chance to win it all.
    That's not what I take from it, but perhaps it's valid to stretch to that.

    I think it is more that they play a lot of tough teams (MVFC is tough, as evidenced by our OOC record the past few years). And they play those tough teams close (win or lose, it shows they are also quite good). Against lower rated teams, they generally win by a lot, which also supports their high rating.

    I doubt that Sagarin has a way to measure and compare the "clutch" factor (if any such thing exists) for teams that just know how to win the game. For some of Sagarin's measures, it doesn't even matter which team wins... just the number of points they win or lose by in relation to the expectations from the previous week's ratings.

  5. #115
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wahpeton
    Posts
    14,208

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by thebootfitter View Post
    That's not what I take from it, but perhaps it's valid to stretch to that.

    I think it is more that they play a lot of tough teams (MVFC is tough, as evidenced by our OOC record the past few years). And they play those tough teams close (win or lose, it shows they are also quite good). Against lower rated teams, they generally win by a lot, which also supports their high rating.

    I doubt that Sagarin has a way to measure and compare the "clutch" factor (if any such thing exists) for teams that just know how to win the game. For some of Sagarin's measures, it doesn't even matter which team wins... just the number of points they win or lose by in relation to the expectations from the previous week's ratings.
    I like what Ken Pomeroy does for basketball. He actually has a "luck" factor that is a result of predicted vs. actual results. Teams that win many games they shouldn't, end up with a high luck rating. A team like UNI would have a poor luck rating because many of the games where the actual score differential is within a TD of the predicted score differential, but the result of the game often ended in a UNI loss.

    IOW, the predicted score was a 3pt UNI win, but UNI loses by 1. The difference between the two scores is only 4pts, but it was enough to tip the balance against them. Enough games like that and you end up with a poor luck rating.

  6. #116
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wahpeton
    Posts
    14,208

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    The way I think about the differentials (I don't know if this is right or not, it's just what I think) is if each game result is a point on graph the differential is a measure of how far above or below a line of best fit that point is. The algorithm is trying to minimize the differentials by drawing the best fitting line it can for every college football game in the data set (all 1,500 or so).
    Yeah, my differential columns are pretty meaningless. They're mainly there for my own amusement. It helps me see in what games the team appeared to over or underperform. The total differential has even less meaning, but seems to point to possible irregularities if it gets too high. High numbers in either direction can be caused by a very inconsistent team with wild swings. Or they can come from a team consistently missing a bit high or a bit low.

    I wouldn't put any real stock in the total diff number at all.

  7. #117
    Scooter1's Avatar
    Scooter1 is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Moorhead, MN
    Posts
    1,547

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by SDbison View Post
    No justification for EWU being ranked above NDSU.
    Exactly. I don't give a shit where the game was played as long as it wasn't played on paper.

    How many rematches can you name that NDSU has lost?

  8. #118
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    40

    Default Re: Week 9 Polls

    Quote Originally Posted by wagsabison View Post
    Only argument you could make is that EWU lost to a better opponent... but that happens to be NDSU.
    Also EWU lost earlier in the year to us, the later in the year a team loses the more it hurts them.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •