Re: FBS games week 1
Originally Posted by
natstar1
I think UM's winning percentage is pretty much the if they go for 1 or 2. Lets assume OSU scores 20% of the time and both teams get 2 point conversions 50% of the time.
Go for 1 lead by 8. OSU scores a TD 20% of the time, they get the conversion 50% of the time, and win in OT 50% of the time. OSU's winning percentage is (0.2)(0.5)(0.5)=5%
Youre assuming unknowns to fit your narrative.
Go for 2 and get it. UM wins 100% of the time.
Got for 2 and fail. OSU socres 20% of the time, make the PAT, and win 50% in OT. So even if they fail they still win 10% of the time, but if count in the 50% of the time they get it, it's half of the 10% or 5%.
If UM's offense is better than OSU's it probably makes sense.
Its actually simple. You make them go for two instead of the chip shot.
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