2016 Sagarin Says

[No_Skill]

Wait, this thing isn't correct 100% of the time. This is bullcrap!

[FrozenTech]

Which one is it? A loss because of one injury, or a team effort?

The USD loss, like the Montana loss was a combination of factors. But a big part of it, in my opinion was Carson being unable to play to his potential due to being (unknowingly) injured. Carson is and was an amazing player and I truly believe that prior to his wrist injury some of the team was in coast mode, because as long as they played *just well enough* Carson and his arm could get them through with enough points. It wasn't *just* Carson going down in either Montana or USD that caused the loss, but it was that, and perhaps a not quite focused enough team effort that helped create the environment for the losses.

Because the next week, and every week after up to the NC game, that team was a completely different beast. Almost like an on switch was flipped.

It my hope that this year the switch gets flipped to on, and then torn straight off the wall from game one.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0. 2.6%.. -3.6%
10-1 19.3% -16.4%
9-2 36.2%.. -1.9%
8-3 28.1% +12.1%
7-4 11.1%. +7.6%
6-5.. 2.4%. +2.0%
5-6.. 0.3%. +0.3%
4-7 0.02%
3-8 0.001%
2-9 0.00001%
1-10 0.00000005%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.EWU.. 90.1%. -17.5.. -7.6% +9.5
@Iowa.. 16.3% +13.5.. -1.9% +1.0
v.Ill St.. 91.9%. -19.0. +1.3% -1.0
@Mo St. 98.8%. -31.0. -0.3% +1.5
v.SDSU. 71.4%.. -7.5. -12.5% +6.0
@W Ill.. 77.1%. -10.0. -12.5% +7.0
@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0
v.YSU.. 81.2%.. -12.0 -10.9% +7.0
v.Ind St 98.5%. -29.5. -0.1%. +0.5
@USD. 93.6%.. -20.5. -0.5%. +0.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
... @Iowa.. 16.3% +13.5
... @UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0
... v.SDSU. 71.4%.. -7.5
... @W Ill.. 77.1%. -10.0
+1 v.YSU.. 81.2%.. -12.0
+2 v.EWU.. 90.1%. -17.5
-2 v.Ill St.. 91.9%. -19.0
-1 @USD. 93.6%.. -20.5
... v.Ind St 98.5%. -29.5
... @Mo St. 98.8%. -31.0

[MrSnuffleupagus]

@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0

eff you.

:'(

[THEsocalledfan]

Is Washington St. particularly horrible? I would thought EWU would get more of a bounce.

[bisonaudit]

Is Washington St. particularly horrible? I would thought EWU would get more of a bounce.

They're at 70.66 today. Don't know where they were last week.

[Bison 4 Life]

@UNI.. 46.8%... +1.0 -15.2% +5.0

eff you.

:'(

It is going to be an uphill climb. I don't entirely disagree on that one.

[Christopher Moen]

They're at 70.66 today. Don't know where they were last week.

They were ranked #41 (76.32).

[semobison]

Is Washington St. particularly horrible? I would thought EWU would get more of a bounce.

Wash St. Was suppose to be on the rise. They went 9-4 last year for their first winning record in over 10 years and beat Miami Fla. in the Sunbowl. One of their losses however was in the opener to Portland State.

[bisonaudit]

The Sagarin line on EWU v Wash St was 25.5 and EWU won by 3 so that's 28.5 different from the prior expectation.

Following the game EWU's rating improved more than 6 points and Wash St decreased a little less than 6 points. The model priced in about 40% of the result.