2016 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0.. 6.2%
10-1 35.6%
9-2.. 38.1%
8-3.. 16.1%
7-4.... 3.5%
6-5.... 0.4%
5-6.... 0.03%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00004%
2-9.... 0.000001%
1-10.. 0.000000005%
0-11.. 0.00000000001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.CSU. 97.7%.. -27.06
v.EWU. 97.7%. -27.08
@Iowa 18.2%. +12.28
v.Ill St. 90.6%. -17.81
@Mo St 99.1%. -32.57
v.SDSU 83.9%. -13.39
@W Ill. 89.6%. -17.07
@UNI... 62.0%.. -4.03
v.YSU... 92.1% -19.19
v.Ind St 98.6%. -30.02
@USD.. 94.1%. -21.18

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
@Iowa. 18.2%.+12.28
@UNI... 62.0%.. -4.03
v.SDSU 83.9%. -13.39
@W Ill. 89.6%. -17.07
v.Ill St. 90.6%. -17.81
v.YSU... 92.1% -19.19
@USD.. 94.1%. -21.18
v.CSU. 97.7%.. -27.06
v.EWU. 97.7%. -27.08
v.Ind St 98.6%. -30.02
@Mo St 99.1%. -32.57

[JDZ]

@W Ill. 89.6%. -17.07
v.Ill St. 90.6%. -17.81
v.YSU... 92.1% -19.19
@USD.. 94.1%. -21.18
v.CSU. 97.7%.. -27.06
v.EWU. 97.7%. -27.08

LOL at ISUr, YSU, and EWU.

[MrSnuffleupagus]

LOL at ISUr, YSU, and EWU.

Yeah...but what was the Sagarin prediction for the USD game last year? Just sayin...

[MNLonghorn10]

Yeah...but what was the Sagarin prediction for the USD game last year? Just sayin...

Believe it was

"USD....0%. +3"

[bisonaudit]

Believe it was

"USD....0%. +3"

v.USD.. 96.3% -24.5

[THEsocalledfan]

Yeah...but what was the Sagarin prediction for the USD game last year? Just sayin...

And remember it is am mathematical model; it can't account for injuries until after the injury happens.

[bisonaudit]

And remember it is am mathematical model; it can't account for injuries until after the injury happens.

It actually doesn't do that at all. Not in any direct sense.

[MNLonghorn10]

v.USD.. 96.3% -24.5

Wrong. NDSU had 0% chance of winning that game. Sagarin nailed it

[THEsocalledfan]

It actually doesn't do that at all. Not in any direct sense.

I hear what you are saying and agree, but if performance of the overall team is affected leading to differences of variables that go into the model........

[MrSnuffleupagus]

And remember it is am mathematical model; it can't account for an injury until after the injury happens.

I hear what you are saying and agree, but if performance of the overall team is affected leading to differences of variables that go into the model........

Which one is it? A loss because of one injury, or a team effort?