2016 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

Is this new? Thought Sagarin used to wait until week 8?

I don't think he's ever waited that long. He's published earlier with the disclosure that the model isn't well connected. And just the last few years he's published preseason.

[bucs90]

I'll never understand why the Big 10 and Big 12 folks keep scheduling you guys haha. Have they not learned yet?

[EC8CH]

I'll never understand why the Big 10 and Big 12 folks keep scheduling you guys haha. Have they not learned yet?

Big10 has. This one against Iowa is the last one that was scheduled before Delany made a rule that said no more FCS games for the Big10.

[Hammersmith]

And here we go again. I had to make some updates to the spreadsheet thebootfitter made for me to account for conference changes. I think I got it right, but those of you who really follow this can double check to see if something slipped through. The conference changes are that UMass is now an FBS independent and CCU is the only FCS independent. Standard caveat that this doesn't mean much until four to six weeks into the season.


Sagarin's 2016 Week 0 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 44	North Dakota State  	75.45				
145	Charleston Southern 	51.00	+27.06			
133	Eastern Washington  	53.59	+24.47			
 17	Iowa                	85.12	-12.28			
 97	Illinois State      	62.86	+15.20			
189	Missouri State      	40.27	+32.57			
 87	South Dakota State  	64.67	+13.39			
123	Western Illinois    	55.77	+17.07			
 70	Northern Iowa       	68.71	 +4.13			
109	Youngstown State    	58.87	+19.19			
157	Indiana State       	48.04	+30.02			
143	South Dakota        	51.66	+21.18			
						
140	Southern Illinois   	51.93				
						
					Total Diff:	+0.00	
		Home Field	 2.61

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
1	 44	75.45	North Dakota State  			
2	 70	68.71	Northern Iowa       			
3	 87	64.67	South Dakota State  			
4	 91	63.78	Sam Houston State   			
5	 92	63.77	Chattanooga         			
6	 97	62.86	Illinois State      			
7	100	62.34	Jacksonville State  			
8	103	60.96	Richmond            			
9	104	60.56	Harvard             			
10	109	58.87	Youngstown State    			
11	115	57.23	Northern Arizona    			
12	117	56.92	William & Mary      			
13	119	55.92	The Citadel         			
14	123	55.77	Western Illinois    			
15	124	55.67	McNeese State       			
16	126	54.99	Montana             			
17	128	54.86	James Madison       			
18	130	54.01	Pennsylvania        			
19	132	53.90	Eastern Kentucky    			
20	133	53.59	Eastern Washington  			
21	134	52.91	Villanova           			
22	136	52.35	Portland State      			
23	139	51.99	Eastern Illinois    			
24	140	51.93	Southern Illinois   			
25	143	51.66	South Dakota

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
1	SEC                 	82.33	11			
2	PAC-12              	79.27	9			
3	BIG 12              	78.55	7			
4	ACC                 	76.89	10			
5	BIG TEN             	73.80	8			
6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	71.85	2			
7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	65.94	2			
8	MWC                 	62.74	2			
9	MAC                 	59.99	1			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	57.69	1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	56.93	1			
12	SUN BELT            	55.82	1			
13	I-AA INDEPENDENTS    	47.31	1			
14	COLONIAL            	47.10	1			
15	BIG SKY             	46.92	1			
16	SOUTHERN            	45.14	1			
17	OHIO VALLEY         	44.29	1			
18	IVY LEAGUE          	44.24	1			
19	BIG SOUTH           	40.44	1			
20	PATRIOT             	40.42	1			
21	SOUTHLAND           	38.02	1			
22	NORTHEAST           	34.78	1			
23	MID-EASTERN         	30.40	1			
24	SWAC                	24.56	1			
25	PIONEER             	19.57	1

[No_Skill]

Obligatory

[Professor Chaos]

Only 8 MVFC teams in Sagarin's FCS top 25???

[yopaulie]

Wow - that has us ranked higher than all MAC, Sunbelt, Conference USA, and Mountain West teams other than Boise St.

[Strategery]

Wow - that has us ranked higher than all MAC, Sunbelt, Conference USA, and Mountain West teams other than Boise St.

And all of the AAC other than Houston. Not bad.

[Christopher Moen]

Looks like the F'hawkers left too much doubt for Sagarin to consider them top-25.

[Twentysix]

Looks like the F'hawkers left too much doubt for Sagarin to consider them top-25.

The model doesn't consider the weight room until week 4.