2016 Sagarin Says

[Christopher Moen]

......do you want to face a 6-5 UNI team in the playoffs?

I would rather deal with that than deal with a 3-4 UNI team at their home in the regular season. A lot of MVFC teams already fighting for their playoff lives.

[bisonaudit]

......do you want to face a 6-5 UNI team in the playoffs?

No. But I was under the impression that the idea was for the NCAA to reward the best teams rather than pave the road between Fargo and Frisco.

[thebigund]

What about the question above......."What is your quality win"?

Poly..........

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Poly..........

Well played, douchenozzle, well played............

[yellowstreak]

23-Oct-2016

- 34 Iowa 5-3
1 57 North Dakota State 6-1
2 77 Northern Iowa ???? 3-4
3 79 South Dakota State 5-2
4 83 Eastern Washington 6-1
5 89 Youngstown State 5-2
6 92 Jacksonville State 6-1
7 101 Chattanooga 7-1
8 102 Montana 5-2
9 104 Richmond 7-1
10 107 James Madison 6-1
11 108 Sam Houston State 7-0
12 112 Central Arkansas 6-1
13 115 Charleston Southern 4-2
14 117 The Citadel 7-0
15 123 Western Illinois 5-2
16 124 Villanova 6-2
17 125 Cal Poly-SLO 5-2
18 126 Samford 6-1
19 128 Lehigh 6-2
20 129 Coastal Carolina 5-2
21 131 Northern Arizona 4-4
22 132 Illinois State 3-5
23 136 Liberty 4-3
24 137 Nameless 6-2
25 138 Wofford 4-3
-- 142 South Dakota 4-3
-- 160 Indiana State 4-4
-- 184 Missouri State 3-4

[MNLonghorn10]

how in the flying fuck does UNI stay pat after having all of those shitty losses while NDSU wins and still drops?

[bisonaudit]

how in the flying fuck does UNI stay pat after having all of those shitty losses while NDSU wins and still drops?

Because they won by 50 something when the model thought they should win by probably 20 something and NDSU won by 8 when the model was expecting 15.

Also, not sure their losses were shitty.

It's not about W and L it's about the margin.

[MNLonghorn10]

Because they won by 50 something when the model thought they should win by probably 20 something and NDSU won by 8 when the model was expecting 15.

Also, not sure their losses were shitty.

It's not about W and L it's about the margin.

Yea i get that..but 4 losses would obviously= to 4 times being negative to the margin and I cant imagine they've played against many teams that have been higher than they have.

Im not going to argue that the formula is wrong, but it seems weird that a 4 loss FCS team is still the 2nd highest ranked FCS team around.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 9 Prediction

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result   Diff						
 57	North Dakota State  	72.11				
115	Charleston Southern 	57.38	+17.15	 +7.00	-10.15	
	Bye					
 83	Eastern Washington  	65.75	 +8.78	 +6.00	 -2.78	
 34	Iowa                	78.79	 -9.10	 +2.00	+11.10	
	Bye					
132	Illinois State      	54.50	+20.03	+21.00	 +0.97	
184	Missouri State      	43.82	+25.87	+24.00	 -1.87	
 79	South Dakota State  	66.10	 +8.43	 -2.00	-10.43	
123	Western Illinois    	56.24	+13.45	 +8.00	 -5.45	
 77	Northern Iowa       	66.52	 +3.17			
 89	Youngstown State    	64.03	+10.50			
160	Indiana State       	47.05	+27.48			
142	South Dakota        	52.73	+16.96			
						
148	Southern Illinois   	51.11				
						
					Total Diff:	-18.61	
		Home Field	 2.42

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 57	72.11	North Dakota State  			
 2	 77	66.52	Northern Iowa       			
 3	 79	66.10	South Dakota State  			
 4	 83	65.75	Eastern Washington  			
 5	 89	64.03	Youngstown State    			
 6	 92	63.56	Jacksonville State  			
 7	101	61.11	Chattanooga         			
 8	102	60.97	Montana             			
 9	104	59.92	Richmond            			
10	107	59.32	James Madison       			
11	108	59.08	Sam Houston State   			
12	112	58.10	Central Arkansas    			
13	115	57.38	Charleston Southern 			
14	117	57.25	The Citadel         			
15	123	56.24	Western Illinois    			
16	124	55.96	Villanova           			
17	125	55.83	Cal Poly-SLO        			
18	126	55.67	Samford             			
19	128	55.28	Lehigh              			
20	129	55.18	Coastal Carolina    			
21	131	54.83	Northern Arizona    			
22	132	54.50	Illinois State      			
23	136	53.56	Liberty             			
24	137	53.50	North Dakota        			
25	138	53.21	Wofford

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	SEC                 	79.67	11			
 2	PAC-12              	78.86	11			
 3	BIG 12              	77.82	9			
 4	ACC                 	77.14	10			
 5	BIG TEN             	72.65	9			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	72.38	3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	69.30	6			
 8	MWC                 	61.77	3			
 9	MAC                 	59.55	3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	57.18	1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	56.35	1			
12	SUN BELT            	56.32	1			
13	I-AA INDEPENDENTS    	55.18	1			
14	BIG SKY             	47.60	1			
15	SOUTHERN            	47.57	1			
16	COLONIAL            	47.19	1			
17	OHIO VALLEY         	44.65	1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	43.06	1			
19	IVY LEAGUE          	40.65	1			
20	PATRIOT             	40.54	1			
21	SOUTHLAND           	39.45	1			
22	NORTHEAST           	35.91	1			
23	MID-EASTERN         	27.79	1			
24	SWAC                	25.63	1			
25	PIONEER             	20.65	1

[RadioBison]

Yea i get that..but 4 losses would obviously= to 4 times being negative to the margin and I cant imagine they've played against many teams that have been higher than they have.

Im not going to argue that the formula is wrong, but it seems weird that a 4 loss FCS team is still the 2nd highest ranked FCS team around.

The losses to EWU and YSU didn't cost them too much. The losses to USD and Montana did, but they made up for most of that yesterday against MSU. They are just about even with where they started.