2016 Sagarin Says

[BisonNation11]

This team reminds me of the 2011/2012 teams. The potential is there, but you never know from week to week how it's going to go. Yeah, it's early, but that's the feeling I get.

[tjbison]

We beat 2 top 25 teams to Start the season in OOC, Iowa game makes no difference, just need to get out without injuries.

if it all goes like it looks we be facing 7 of 10 opponents ranked in the top 25 and 1 FBS top 25 team, we win the conference we will be a top 2 seed. Lots of work but its a good start

[wtffootballfan]

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.ph...2016&sub=11605

[SDbison]

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.ph...2016&sub=11605

9 of 10 Missouri Valley teams in the top 34.

[Bison03]

This team reminds me of the 2011/2012 teams. The potential is there, but you never know from week to week how it's going to go. Yeah, it's early, but that's the feeling I get.

Remember week 1 vs Montana last year? How bad did the defense look. Then compare that to how the defense played in the playoffs. No reason not to think the same thing will happen again this year.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2016 Week 4 Prediction

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin  Predict  Result  Diff						
 54	North Dakota State  	73.48				
134	Charleston Southern 	53.64	+22.54	 +7.00	-15.54	
 89	Eastern Washington  	63.74	+12.44	 +6.00	 -6.44	
 19	Iowa                	82.79	-12.01	 +2.00	+14.01	
108	Illinois State      	60.05	+16.13			
191	Missouri State      	41.33	+29.45			
105	South Dakota State  	60.59	+15.59			
 96	Western Illinois    	61.96	 +8.82			
 86	Northern Iowa       	64.59	 +6.19			
 93	Youngstown State    	62.64	+13.54			
172	Indiana State       	46.95	+29.23			
167	South Dakota        	47.75	+23.03			
						
139	Southern Illinois   	52.84				
						
					Total Diff:	 -7.97	
		Home Field	 2.70

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 54	73.48	North Dakota State  			
 2	 86	64.59	Northern Iowa       			
 3	 87	63.97	Chattanooga         			
 4	 89	63.74	Eastern Washington  			
 5	 92	62.71	Sam Houston State   			
 6	 93	62.64	Youngstown State    			
 7	 96	61.96	Western Illinois    			
 8	 97	61.92	Jacksonville State  			
 9	104	60.78	James Madison       			
10	105	60.59	South Dakota State  			
11	108	60.05	Illinois State      			
12	110	59.61	Richmond            			
13	116	58.42	Harvard             			
14	117	58.09	Montana             			
15	121	56.18	Coastal Carolina    			
16	128	55.23	Cal Poly-SLO        			
17	129	54.80	Eastern Illinois    			
18	130	54.80	Villanova           			
19	132	54.40	Northern Arizona    			
20	133	53.67	William & Mary      			
21	134	53.64	Charleston Southern 			
22	135	53.40	The Citadel         			
23	137	53.12	Samford             			
24	138	52.96	Colgate             			
25	139	52.84	Southern Illinois

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	SEC                 	80.32	11			
 2	PAC-12              	78.29	11			
 3	BIG 12              	78.22	 9			
 4	ACC                 	76.91	10			
 5	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	76.72	 4			
 6	BIG TEN             	72.91	 8			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	69.29	 3			
 8	MWC                 	61.83	 3			
 9	MAC                 	60.80	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	57.72	 1			
11	SUN BELT            	56.36	 1			
12	I-AA INDEPENDENTS    	56.18	 1			
13	CONFERENCE USA      	55.99	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	49.22	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	48.31	 1			
16	BIG SKY             	47.48	 1			
17	OHIO VALLEY         	45.16	 1			
18	IVY LEAGUE          	42.51	 1			
19	BIG SOUTH           	41.43	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	41.37	 1			
21	SOUTHLAND           	39.81	 1			
22	NORTHEAST           	34.53	 1			
23	MID-EASTERN         	29.57	 1			
24	SWAC                	25.52	 1			
25	PIONEER             	20.34	 1

[MNLonghorn10]

Weak bump. Thought a top 30 win would put NDSU back into the 40s. Just gotta kick the shit out of isur and right the ship

[No_Skill]

Weak bump. Thought a top 30 win would put NDSU back into the 40s. Just gotta kick the shit out of isur and right the ship

Still not fully connected. Just look at UNI. They barely fell after two losses.

[bisonaudit]

Still not fully connected. Just look at UNI. They barely fell after two losses.

They lost a road game by 4 this week that the model thought they should have won by less than a point. They shouldn't have fell very much.

And they dropped 6 rating points after the Montana loss.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Record.Chance.Change
11-0 31.4% +29.9%
10-1 41.6% +23.1%
9-2.. 21.0%. -14.5%
8-3.... 5.2%. -23.8%
7-4.... 0.7%. -11.5%
6-5.... 0.05%. -2.8%
5-6.... 0.002% -0.3%
4-7.... 0.00003%
3-8.... 0.0000002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line.. Change
v.Ill St.. 91.6% -18.5.. +7.5% -5.0
@Mo St. 98.5% -29.5.. +1.3% -3.5
v.SDSU. 87.5% -15.5 +13.1% -6.5
@W Ill.. 74.3%.. -9.0.. +6.3% -2.5
@UNI... 67.7%.. -6.0.. +9.2% -3.0
v.YSU... 84.2% -13.5.. +8.5% -4.0
v.Ind St 98.4% -29.0.. +0.6% -1.5
@USD.. 95.5% -23.0.. +2.1% -2.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp...... Win%.. Line
... @UNI... 67.7%.. -6.0
... @W Ill.. 74.3%.. -9.0
+1 v.YSU... 84.2% -13.5
-1 v.SDSU. 87.5% -15.5
... v.Ill St.. 91.6% -18.5
... @USD.. 95.5% -23.0
+1 v.Ind St 98.4% -29.0
-1 @Mo St. 98.5% -29.5