I'm just saying that these decision can be subjected to a certain amount of empirical rigor but just about everyone seems to prefer the collective safety of making the same set of clearly too risk averse choices the rest of the lemmings have been making for years.
It's just crazy. All these coaches preach play through the whistle, we own the fourth quarter, win every down, never surrender. And what do they do on 4th and 1? They give up. They need 1 little yard to keep the ball and they commit of voluntary turnover. They shouldn't even need the numbers. The practice doesn't comport with what they say they're all about.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Last edited by bisonaudit; 08-25-2016 at 09:03 PM.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Has anyone seen the show called "Adam Ruins Everything"? He's doing a show on football next week and I wonder if this will be one of the topics.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Im with audit on this one. (I think) Admittedly I am jumping in the middle on this one so I cant see where it started. But this has always bugged me. In my mind....50 yard line rule. If we are on the far half of the field, go for it. If were on our half, Id say punt. How many times do you see a team punt from the opponents 40-45 yd line and the ball ends up back on the 20 with a touchback. what did you gain? 'IF' they stop you...now they are at the 45 instead of the 20. Yes we have been spoiled with an all world punter the past few years, but even then...there were times where I thought...why punt from there and what did we gain??
Edit...and there are times when we are on our own half of the field Id say go for it too.
I don't care how the vote ended up. They still suck and always will.
Official Unofficial President of the Bisonville Zach Vraa Fan Club.
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It's the same reasoning you don't like how NDSU shortens the game and think they should try to get as many possessions as possible since they have more talent. Usually you try to control TOP if you are the team with less talent to let "chance" affect the game more severely. If you punt, you give the opponent more field to have to cross and you can withstand one of those "chance" situations before giving up points. If you turn the ball over on your own 30 after not getting the 1 yard, that "chance" play could result in a TD or lead to a TD. If you punt to the opponents 30, that 30 yard play leaves them needing another 40 to get into the endzone.
I'll concede the 4 and 1 or 2 on the opponents side with the exception of rare circumstances.
It's more about not putting your defense in a position to fail than not thinking your offense can get it. Is that a good decision? Maybe not
It definitely depends on the situation. 4th and 1 from midfield sure I'd go for it more times then not. 4th and 1 from my 40 probably not. If I've got a 3 point lead with less then 2 minutes I'm punting every time. If I'm behind I'm probably going for it. Every situation is different but I'd never be like Stitt and just go for it on 4th and 3 from my 40 in the first quarter which to me is just dumb. Your putting your defense in a horrible position to be successful.
The info audit has put up takes into account the location of the ball. I'd say almost always within the opponents 40yd line 4th and 2 or less go for it. Get to FG range introduces while new variable to the equation too. I actually partially agree with audit. The wild card is the other team having themselves up to stop you and giving 111% to your 110% (saying all things were equal) would leave you short. But I do think coaches err too much on the conservative side especially on the opponents side of the field.
That said one reason in 2011 we had a lot of success stopping the 4th and shorts many times where I thought it was a good chance to take it. SHSU had a couple early in the chipper that were denied and I think that was one thing that was a background thing that eventually got momentum rolling our way and when we converted our one and only 4th down (fake punt though..) that added to their denied discouragement on their attempts.
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