2015 Playoff Outlook

[missingnumber7]

MEAC could sneak one in if Bethune-Cookman finishes without losing and some of the other bubble teams lose.

I don't think Fordham is a lock right now. There is still a lot of football left.

I also think that if CCU gets the AQ from the Big South they are a 1 bid league depending on how things play out. I think the biggest part is what happens with EIU/EKU/TN Martin, also what happens in the Big Sky. There is still a cluster in the middle there. We are 3 weeks out and things are clearer than they have been in previous years, but there is still a lot left to go. Some big games this weekend:

Big Sky:
NAU @ EWU...there is a slight revenge factor here for EWU after the loss last year, but they haven't really blown anyone's socks off yet
SUU @ MSU...Cats still are technically alive and could play a huge spoiler.

Big South
Charleston Southern @ Kinnesaw St...A win would clinch at least a shared title for CSU.

MVFC
ISUR @ SDSU...NDSU fans should obviously be huge SDSU fans here, SDSU needs to win here to maintain their stance that they belong in the top tier of the MVFC.

OVC
JSU @ EIU...last challenge for JSU for the season, on the road at EIU
UT-Martin @ EKU loser probably seals their playoff hopes.

Southland
SHSU @ McNeese...If McNeese wins they claim at least a share of the Southland,

[BisonTru]

MEAC could sneak one in if Bethune-Cookman finishes without losing and some of the other bubble teams lose.

I don't think Fordham is a lock right now. There is still a lot of football left.
,

If Fordham wins out they're most likely in, but a loss puts them firmly on the bubble and IMO, should be out. They've been squeaking by a weak schedule.

B-C certainly has a shot to get in, but it would be a complete joke, IMO. That conference can't win a game in the tourney so they quit sending their best, so they can participate in some bowl. You don't want to send us your best, than the rest can stay home. B-C most likely goes 1-7 or 0-8 in the MVFC.

[missingnumber7]

If Fordham wins out they're most likely in, but a loss puts them firmly on the bubble and IMO, should be out. They've been squeaking by a weak schedule.

B-C certainly has a shot to get in, but it would be a complete joke, IMO. That conference can't win a game in the tourney so they quit sending their best, so they can participate in some bowl. You don't want to send us your best, than the rest can stay home. B-C most likely goes 1-7 or 0-8 in the MVFC.

If Fordham wins out they will most likely end up with the AQ.

As far as a MEAC rep I'm with you 100%. I am interested to see how the committee handles it.

[BisonTru]

If Fordham wins out they will most likely end up with the AQ.

As far as a MEAC rep I'm with you 100%. I am interested to see how the committee handles it.

Colgate is undefeated in conference. No idea how their tie-breaker works, but I know they get the AQ if they win out.

The MEAC also doesn't have a rep on the committee, this certainly doesn't mean they can't get in, but I think it makes it more difficult than a couple of years ago when the MEAC got an at-large.

[JDZ]

Patriot League sucks and should only get one.....but Fordham lost to Colgate and probably won't get the AQ. Fordham has a decent shot for an at large because of their good record against bad teams. This conference sent an AQ team with a losing record a few years ago.

Didn't Lehigh get left out with a 10-1 (11-1 ??) record a couple years ago, since their loss was in-conference and they didn't get the AQ?

[missingnumber7]

Didn't Lehigh get left out with a 10-1 (11-1 ??) record a couple years ago, since their loss was in-conference and they didn't get the AQ?

That would be correct...they were 10-1

[missingnumber7]

Auto Bids:updated 11/15/15
(Big Sky)
Charleston Southern (Big South)
(CAA)
(MVFC)
(NEC)
Jacksonville St(OVC)
Colgate(Patriot)
Dayton(Pioneer)
Chattanooga(Southern)
McNeese St (Southland)

7 Wins
1. Southern Utah
2. Eastern Washington
3. Portland StLock
4. Coastal CarolinaLock
5. RichmondLock
6. William & MaryLock
7. North Carolina A&T
8. Bethune-Cookman
9. NDSU Lock
10. Illinois StLock
11. SDSULock
12. Fordham
13. The Citadel
14. Grambling
15. Northern Arizona
16. James MadisonLock
17. NC Central
18. San Diego
19. Sam Houston St
20. Central Arkansas

[missingnumber7]

Since I posted this elsewhere...I will place this here and update as needed.11/15/15
There are 38 teams that can get to 7 wins of those teams there will be 10 autobids leaving 28 teams for 14 spots. Of those 28 teams:
2 are MEAC- 1 MEAC will make the Celebration bowl, they are not eligible for an auto bid but they would be a 1 bid if that, Bethune-Cookman/NC A&T that leaves
27 for 13/14 spots
2 are NEC, 1 will get the auto bid, they won't get an at large that leaves
26 for 13/14 spots
2 are Patriot, 1 will get auto bid, Fordham will probably get an at large bid that leaves
25 for 12/13 spots
3 are Pioneer, 1 will get auto bid, no 2nd bid that leaves
22 for 12/13 spots
1 is SWAC, no auto, none will get in that leaves
21 for 12/13 spots


Big South has 2 possible teams, CSU has already clinched the auto bid, Big South will get 1 at large.
20 for 11/12 spots
OVC has 4 possible teams, with 1 autobid they have 1 with 7 wins (JSU), TN-Martin plays EIU which could eliminate them or make their final game vs SEMO a must win, EIU must win both (TN Martin and EKU), IMO OVC will only get 1 bid, but for all practical purposes I will leave this open.
20 of 11/12 spots
Southern has 3 eligible teams, with 1 autobid they have 2 with 7 wins (Chattanooga, The Citadel), WCU plays TX A&M and VMI they must win one to be eligible. That said, they only get one at large, leaving
19 for 10/11 spots
Southland has 3 eligible teams, McNeese has already won autobid, SHSU/UCA winner gets an at large.
18 for 9/10 spots

Big Sky has 7 possible teams, 4 already with 7 wins (SUU, EWU, PSU, NAU). UM plays MSU, Weber plays Idaho St UND plays Poly
18 for 9/10 spots
CAA has 6 possible teams, with someone getting the autobid they have 3 with 7 wins (Richmond, JMU, W&M), Towson plays URI, Nova plays JMU, and UNH plays Maine.
18 for 9/10 spots
MVFC has 4 possible teams, with 1 autobid they have 3 with 7 wins (NDSU, ISUR, SDSU), none of the other 3 play each other, that leaves
20 of 9/10 spots

Of the 9/10 slots
SUU/PSU are in essentially
as are Richmond/JMU/W&M
and NDSU/ISUR/SDSU

That leaves 4/5 slots because of auto bids and it will come down to
Big Sky
UM has 2 quality wins in NDSU/EWU, also beat UND,
NAU has 1 quality win in EWU, also beat Weber
UND has 1 FBS win (Wyoming), 1 quality win in PSU
Weber no quality wins, beat UND, UM
EWU has 0 quality wins and hasn’t beat any of the others on this list
MVFC
UNI has 2 quality wins EWU, SDSU,
CAA
Towson no quality wins, win over Nova
Nova no quality wins, win over Fordham, win out will include wins over Richmond and JMU
UNH 1 quality win Richmond, win over Colgate (Patriot autobid)
OVC
TN Martin has no quality wins, win over EKU
EKU no quality wins
EIU no quality wins, win over TN Martin

[missingnumber7]

Everything updated...will check my stuff when I can get on a bigger monitor at work tomorrow.

[missingnumber7]

Who helped their cause/who hurt their cause/what bubbles were burst this weekend.

Helped
While UNI has no easy task this week, a nice win this week, yes it was Mo St, it was what they needed and they did it.
EIU faced with a must win on the road completed that task, but is rewarded with another must win vs a team in the same boat.
Montana put it to EWU and they did what they wanted to.
UND a must win game, at home, win by 31. Will be all for nothing if they can't duplicate the task this week.
Nova had a nice win at home vs Richmond

Hurt
EWU...I really want to put this in the burst category, but they can redeem themselves this week against PSU, but that was an embarrassing loss to UM, and if you watched it, it was really ugly.
Towson in need of another good win, losing to W&M hurts their chances and a win over URI isn't going to help their chances.
UT-Martin a tough loss to EIU doesn't help them at all.
The Citadel lost a tough road game to Chattanooga, finishes with South Carolina a team that they have a chance to beat, would have to think they need a decent showing if not a win to get in.

Bubble Burst
Liberty lead for most of the game vs CSU, needed to win out vs CSU and CCU to even think about making it.
USD, while it was a long shot having to beat both SDSU and ISUR they gave SDSU everything they wanted and then some. Can still play an interesting role vs ISUR and if something crazy happens this weekend with wins over NDSU and ISUR would have to think that they might get some talk as a 6-5 team.
YSU, again, they needed to win out, and did not.
Bryant was in the drivers seat for the NEC autobid then lost to Sacred Heart.
UNC had a decent run but lost the must win on the road.