2015 Playoff Outlook

[missingnumber7]

Back by popular demand. I will update this as we go along and once a team is eliminated from a chance to win the conference I will pull them out of the list.

The only school that was eligible for the playoffs and doesn't have a game scheduled during the playoffs from the SWAC is Alcorn St. I will mention them if they become relevant. Also after this week I will take a look at Conference scenarios, however most have matchups in November that will decide the conference. All conference scenarios are for the autobid only. I will revisit with tiebreakers for next weeks update. There are still a few key games that need to be played, but the picture should be clear after this week as several teams can clinch at least a share this week.
Updated 11/15
Clinched autobid
7 wins
Must win out or win conference
Eliminated
Big Sky
SUU
EWU
PSU
NAU
UM
Weber
UND
UNC
Montana St
Poly
Sac St
ID St
UC Davis
SUU win for conf champ/autobid
The rest is a complete and utter mess:
NAU needs win vs SUU and PSU win and UM loss and EWU loss to win the tiebreaker for autobid: that is the only measure for someone to win the autobid with out Saggrin ratings.

1. Consider the head-to-head record during the Conference season’s play.
2. Record against Conference teams in descending order of finish beginning with the number one
team. (For use in the case of more than two tied teams, the normal tie-breaking procedure
would be used. When one or more of these teams is eliminated by using the tie-breaking
procedure, the remaining teams involved would then return to the criteria listed in 1., above, to
break the tie. This will be done until a team is established for that particular seeding position.)
3. Teams with highest Sagarin ranking.
4. Coin flip between the tied teams.
Note: In all tie-breaking procedures, if more than one tie exists, the tie among/between the teams lower
in descending order will be broken first, to facilitate the process of breaking the tie between/among
teams higher in the order.

Alive for At Large only: Weber St, North Dakota
Eliminated: Northern Colorado, Cal-Poly, Idaho St, Sacramento St, Cal-Davis, Montana St
It is entirely possible that Montana, Montana St and Eastern Washington miss the playoffs.

Big South
Charleston Southern
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Kennesaw ---3 Non D1 wins
Monmouth
Gardner-Webb ---Not Eligible for Playoffs due to APR
Presbyterian
Charleston Southern clinched autobid
Alive for At large: Coastal Carolina
Eliminated: Liberty, Presbyterian, Gardner-Webb, Monmouth, Kennesaw St



CAA
Richmond
James Madison
William & Mary
Towson
Villanova
New Hampshire
Maine
Delaware
Elon
Stony Brook -only playing 10 games due to storm out @ Toledo
Albany
Rhode Island
William & Mary win=Conf Champs and autobid
If Richmond/JMU win then Richmond takes tiebreaker and wins autobid
If Richmond/Nova win then the team with the highest ELO-Chess from W&M, Richmond, and Nova wins the autobid.
Towson, UNH still alive for at large bid
Maine, Delaware, Elon, Albany, Rhode Island, and Stony Brook have been Eliminated


MEAC-Conference Champ goes to Celebration Bowl
North Carolina A&T
Bethune-Cookman
SC State
NC Central
Morgan St
Hampton
Norfolk St
Savannah St --- Not Eligible for Playoffs due to APR
Florida A&M --- Not Eligible for Playoffs due to APR
Delaware St
Howard



MVFC
NDSU
Illinois St
SDSU
Northern Iowa
South Dakota
Youngstown St
Western Illinois
Indiana St
Southern Illinois
Missouri St
NDSU wins and ISUR loss clinch conf champs and NDSU autobid
NDSU win and ISUR win clinch shared champ and NDSU autobid
NDSU loss and ISUR loss and SDSU win clinch shared champ and SDSU autobid
ISUR wins and NDSU loss clinch conf champs and ISUR autobid
UNI is still eligible for at large
USD, YSU, ISUB, WIU, SIU, Missouri St have been eliminated.

NEC
Duquesne---2 Non D1 wins
St Francis---1 Victory over College of Faith
Bryant
Central Conn St
Sacred Heart
Robert Morris
Wagner

Duquesne vs St. Francis winner gets autobid.

Sacred Heart, Robert Morris and Wagner are eliminated.

OVC
Jacksonville St
Eastern Illinois
Eastern Kentucky
Tenn-Martin---switched to underlined...1 win is vs NAIA team. I believe only D2 count towards 7 win total
Southeast Missouri St
Tennessee St ---10 Games
Murray St
Tennessee Tech
Austin Peay



Patriot
Colgate
Fordham
Lehigh
Georgetown
Bucknell
Holy Cross
Lafayette


Pioneer
Jacksonville--- Not Eligible for PFL title and FCS Playoffs due to matters regarding the PFL’s financial aid rules
Dayton – 2 Non D1 games
San Diego
Marist
Morehead St
Butler – 2 Non D1 Games
Drake
Campbell ---2 Non D1 Wins
Valparaiso —win vs COF
Davidson
Stetson —2 Non D1 games


Southern
The Citadel
Chattanooga
Western Carolina
Furman
Mercer
Samford
Wofford
VMI




Southland
McNeese St
Sam Houston
Central Arkansas
Incarnate Word Not Eligible for Playoffs
Southeastern Louisiana
Stephen F. Austin
Lamar
Northwestern St
Abilene Christian Not Eligible for Playoffs
Nicholls St
Houston Baptist


SWAC
Grambling not eligible game schedule 11/28
Alcorn St not eligible game scheduled 11/28
Southern not eligible game scheduled 11/28
Prairie View A&M --- 1 win vs COF
Alabama A&M
Texas Southern ---1 win vs COF
Alabama St
Jackson St
Mississippi Valley St
Arkansas Pine Bluff

[td577]

Nice work. I was looking up some of the schools because it is interesting to me why some are not eligible. I get that Incarnate Word isn't eligible until 2017 because of transitioning but Kennesaw doesn't make any sense to me. Their press release about entering the conference said they would be immediately eligible for a conference title and playoff berth if they were to qualify. Am I missing something?

[taper]

Kennesaw is a full D1 school that's adding football, not a transitioning D2 school. I think they're eligible, the Big South conference says they are too.

The Montana St/EWU, Weber/Sac St, and Montana/Cal Poly games are non-conference. Don't forget that when figuring out the Big Sky autobid. It's probably going to be a mess.

[StL Bison Fan]

Dom has us playing Mt State and winner going to Brookings.

[missingnumber7]

Nice work. I was looking up some of the schools because it is interesting to me why some are not eligible. I get that Incarnate Word isn't eligible until 2017 because of transitioning but Kennesaw doesn't make any sense to me. Their press release about entering the conference said they would be immediately eligible for a conference title and playoff berth if they were to qualify. Am I missing something?

That is correct, I copy and pasted from the update I did in the summer while the debate was running fast and furious on AGS and forgot to update. The issue they will run into is they played 3 D2 teams so they will essentially need to go 4-1 the rest of the way to be eligible and have their full compliment of conference opponents ahead of them.

[THEsocalledfan]

So, is UN_ out, or could they squeak in with a miracle 3 game run?

[HandoEX]

So, is UN_ out, or could they squeak in with a miracle 3 game run?

They'd be in euth an FBS win and a win over Poly (unless Poly falls apart).

[missingnumber7]

They'd be in euth an FBS win and a win over Poly (unless Poly falls apart).

They need to win out to get to 7 wins. If they win out they are in hands down. (would be something SDSU to cheer for)

A win by EWU or SUU this weekend takes their chances for Big Fluff champs away.

[56BISON73]

Dom has us playing Mt State and winner going to Brookings.

Why brookings? How and why do they have the game?

[THEsocalledfan]

Why brookings? How and why do they have the game?

That was last week, Pat. He updates it weekly, but not out yet.