2015 Sagarin Says

[mnriverbison]

Some guys love football. Some guys like crunching numbers. Some guys like to bring the two together and use math to help predict outcomes. Some guys cry like little bitches and need to learn to not read certain threads if they don't interest them.

Yes. Unlike the rest of the internet, this thread is click-optional.

Also it really stinks of sour grapes when all of a sudden this thread isn't ok because it is no longer a wet dream for us.

[bisonaudit]

Yes. Unlike the rest of the internet, this thread is click-optional.

Also it really stinks of sour grapes when all of a sudden this thread isn't ok because it is no longer a wet dream for us.

Despite the fact that the silly computer still thinks we're the best team in FCS.

[mnriverbison]

Despite the fact that the silly computer still thinks we're the best team in FCS.

Right, but the wet dream part was seeing us ranked higher by sagarin than legit FBS programs. That was fun, but the value of sagarin for many of us stat enthusiasts doesn't start and end there. For non stat enthusiasts, seeing us ranked like that was cool but now that we aren't that stuff is just for the nerds I guess.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

10-1.. 9.9% -29.4% from last week
9-2.. 27.8% + 5.0%
8-3.. 32.4% +25.1%
7-4.. 20.4% +19.0%
6-5.... 7.6% + 7.4%
5-6.... 1.7% + 1.7%
4-7.... 0.2% + 0.2%
3-8.... 0.02%
2-9.... 0.001%
1-10.. 0.00001%
0-11.. 0.0000001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.Weber 98.4% 29.0 -1.1% -6.5 change from last week
v.UND... 98.3% 29.0 -1.2% -6.5
@SDSU. 68.1% 6.5 -14.7% -7.0
v.UNI.... 62.5% 4.5 -16.1% -6.0
v.USD... 95.5% 23.0 -3.0% -6.5
@Ind St. 72.7% 8.0 -13.2% -6.5
@S Ill.... 70.5% 7.5 -13.9% -6.0
v.W Ill... 90.0% 17.5 -6.0% -6.5
@YSU.... 62.5% 4.5 -16.1% -6.0
v.Mo St.. 87.6% 15.5 -7.2% -6.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 62.5% 4.5
v.UNI.... 62.5% 4.5
@SDSU. 68.1% 6.5
@S Ill.... 70.5% 7.5
@Ind St. 72.7% 8.0
v.Mo St.. 87.6% 15.5
v.W Ill... 90.0% 17.5
v.USD... 95.5% 23.0
v.UND... 98.3% 29.0
v.Weber 98.4% 29.0

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

10-1. 11.9% +1.9% from last week
9-2.. 30.2% +2.5%
8-3.. 32.0% -0.4%
7-4.. 18.3% -2.1%
6-5.... 6.2% -1.4%
5-6.... 1.2% -0.4%
4-7.... 0.1% -0.1%
3-8.... 0.01%
2-9.... 0.0003%
1-10.. 0.00001%
0-11.. 0.00000004%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.Weber 98.3% 29.0.. -0.1%.. 0.0 change from last week
v.UND... 95.3% 22.5.. -3.0%. -6.5
@SDSU. 66.9%.. 6.0.. -1.2%. -0.5
v.UNI.... 78.0% 10.5 +15.5% +6.0
v.USD... 96.6% 25.0. +1.1% +2.0
@Ind St. 77.3% 10.0. +4.6% +2.0
@S Ill.... 68.6%. 6.5. -1.9%.. -1.0
v.W Ill... 80.5% 11.5. -9.5%. -6.0
@YSU.... 61.1%. 4.0. -1.4%.. -0.5
v.Mo St.. 96.4% 24.5 +8.8% +9.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--. @YSU.... 61.1%.. 4.0
+1 @SDSU. 66.9%.. 6.0
+1 @S Ill.... 68.6%. 6.5
+1 @Ind St. 77.3% 10.0
-3. v.UNI.... 78.0% 10.5
+1 v.W Ill... 80.5% 11.5
+2 v.UND... 95.3% 22.5
-2. v.Mo St.. 96.4% 24.5
-1. v.USD... 96.6% 25.0
--. v. Weber 98.3% 29.0

[thebootfitter]

That said, is it time someone starts a new thread, like "Sagarin says - 2015"
We are on the 163rd page. Just wonderin'

No way, this thread is epic!

[Mr Meaty]

Unlike some, I like Sagarin, (though I don't care for saccharin).

That said, is it time someone starts a new thread, like "Sagarin says - 2015"
We are on the 163rd page. Just wonderin'

change your setting for viewing, I am only on page 41.

[tony]

I did split the thread up and will do the same to the Weber State one. However, I updated the first post in this new thread so that there's a link to the old "Sagarin Says" thread.

[Hammersmith]

Big Sky not so fluffy anymore.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 1 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
69	North Dakota State  	69.51				
117	Montana             	58.53	+8.33	 -3.00	-11.33	
172	Weber State         	45.94	+26.22			
158	North Dakota        	49.45	+22.71			
94	South Dakota State  	63.57	+3.29			
101	Northern Iowa       	61.75	+10.41			
168	South Dakota        	47.29	+24.87			
130	Indiana State       	56.75	+10.11			
110	Southern Illinois   	60.32	+6.54			
108	Western Illinois    	60.55	+11.61			
99	Youngstown State    	63.05	+3.81			
166	Missouri State      	47.64	+24.52			
						
88	Illinois State      	64.56				
						
						
				Total Diff:	-11.33	
	Home Field	2.65

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
1	69	69.51	North Dakota State  			
2	85	64.78	Eastern Washington  			
3	88	64.56	Illinois State      			
4	94	63.57	South Dakota State  			
5	95	63.42	Jacksonville State  			
6	96	63.35	Sam Houston State   			
7	99	63.05	Youngstown State    			
8	101	61.75	Northern Iowa       			
9	104	60.83	Chattanooga         			
10	106	60.80	Samford             			
11	108	60.55	Western Illinois    			
12	110	60.32	Southern Illinois   			
13	111	59.86	Villanova           			
14	115	59.03	Coastal Carolina    			
15	117	58.53	Montana             			
16	118	58.25	James Madison       			
17	121	57.82	SE Louisiana        			
18	123	57.75	William & Mary      			
19	129	56.79	Cal Poly-SLO        			
20	130	56.75	Indiana State       			
21	134	55.40	Montana State       			
22	137	54.10	Eastern Kentucky    			
23	138	53.55	Wofford             			
24	140	53.40	Harvard             			
25	144	52.85	Portland State

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
1	SEC                 	82.19	14			
2	BIG 12              	80.15	10			
3	ACC                 	76.31	14			
4	BIG TEN             	75.69	13			
5	PAC-12              	75.34	11			
6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	74.49	3			
7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	65.75	5			
8	MWC                 	65.35	2			
9	CONFERENCE USA      	60.53	4			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	60.24	1			
11	MAC                 	58.47	2			
12	SUN BELT            	54.90	1			
13	BIG SKY             	51.40	1			
14	SOUTHERN            	48.84	1			
15	COLONIAL            	48.54	1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	45.45	1			
17	SOUTHLAND           	43.48	1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	41.25	1			
19	IVY LEAGUE          	38.84	1			
20	PATRIOT             	37.20	1			
21	NORTHEAST           	36.68	1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	33.42	1			
23	SWAC                	29.08	1			
24	PIONEER             	23.63	1

[TateMosersneighbor]

I love this thread, not much BS...data and objective stuff about upcoming stuff.