I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Right, but the wet dream part was seeing us ranked higher by sagarin than legit FBS programs. That was fun, but the value of sagarin for many of us stat enthusiasts doesn't start and end there. For non stat enthusiasts, seeing us ranked like that was cool but now that we aren't that stuff is just for the nerds I guess.
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1.. 9.9% -29.4% from last week
9-2.. 27.8% + 5.0%
8-3.. 32.4% +25.1%
7-4.. 20.4% +19.0%
6-5.... 7.6% + 7.4%
5-6.... 1.7% + 1.7%
4-7.... 0.2% + 0.2%
3-8.... 0.02%
2-9.... 0.001%
1-10.. 0.00001%
0-11.. 0.0000001%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.Weber 98.4% 29.0 -1.1% -6.5 change from last week
v.UND... 98.3% 29.0 -1.2% -6.5
@SDSU. 68.1% 6.5 -14.7% -7.0
v.UNI.... 62.5% 4.5 -16.1% -6.0
v.USD... 95.5% 23.0 -3.0% -6.5
@Ind St. 72.7% 8.0 -13.2% -6.5
@S Ill.... 70.5% 7.5 -13.9% -6.0
v.W Ill... 90.0% 17.5 -6.0% -6.5
@YSU.... 62.5% 4.5 -16.1% -6.0
v.Mo St.. 87.6% 15.5 -7.2% -6.5
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 62.5% 4.5
v.UNI.... 62.5% 4.5
@SDSU. 68.1% 6.5
@S Ill.... 70.5% 7.5
@Ind St. 72.7% 8.0
v.Mo St.. 87.6% 15.5
v.W Ill... 90.0% 17.5
v.USD... 95.5% 23.0
v.UND... 98.3% 29.0
v.Weber 98.4% 29.0
Last edited by bisonaudit; 08-31-2015 at 08:46 PM.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1. 11.9% +1.9% from last week
9-2.. 30.2% +2.5%
8-3.. 32.0% -0.4%
7-4.. 18.3% -2.1%
6-5.... 6.2% -1.4%
5-6.... 1.2% -0.4%
4-7.... 0.1% -0.1%
3-8.... 0.01%
2-9.... 0.0003%
1-10.. 0.00001%
0-11.. 0.00000004%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.Weber 98.3% 29.0.. -0.1%.. 0.0 change from last week
v.UND... 95.3% 22.5.. -3.0%. -6.5
@SDSU. 66.9%.. 6.0.. -1.2%. -0.5
v.UNI.... 78.0% 10.5 +15.5% +6.0
v.USD... 96.6% 25.0. +1.1% +2.0
@Ind St. 77.3% 10.0. +4.6% +2.0
@S Ill.... 68.6%. 6.5. -1.9%.. -1.0
v.W Ill... 80.5% 11.5. -9.5%. -6.0
@YSU.... 61.1%. 4.0. -1.4%.. -0.5
v.Mo St.. 96.4% 24.5 +8.8% +9.0
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--. @YSU.... 61.1%.. 4.0
+1 @SDSU. 66.9%.. 6.0
+1 @S Ill.... 68.6%. 6.5
+1 @Ind St. 77.3% 10.0
-3. v.UNI.... 78.0% 10.5
+1 v.W Ill... 80.5% 11.5
+2 v.UND... 95.3% 22.5
-2. v.Mo St.. 96.4% 24.5
-1. v.USD... 96.6% 25.0
--. v. Weber 98.3% 29.0
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
"Sometimes a concept is baffling not because it is profound but because it is wrong" E. O. Wilson
"I'm not crazy my mother had me tested". Sheldon Cooper
My boss hates it when I shorten his name to Dick, mainly because his name is Steven.
I did split the thread up and will do the same to the Weber State one. However, I updated the first post in this new thread so that there's a link to the old "Sagarin Says" thread.
Big Sky not so fluffy anymore.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 1 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff 69 North Dakota State 69.51 117 Montana 58.53 +8.33 -3.00 -11.33 172 Weber State 45.94 +26.22 158 North Dakota 49.45 +22.71 94 South Dakota State 63.57 +3.29 101 Northern Iowa 61.75 +10.41 168 South Dakota 47.29 +24.87 130 Indiana State 56.75 +10.11 110 Southern Illinois 60.32 +6.54 108 Western Illinois 60.55 +11.61 99 Youngstown State 63.05 +3.81 166 Missouri State 47.64 +24.52 88 Illinois State 64.56 Total Diff: -11.33 Home Field 2.65
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:Rank SagRank RATING Team 1 69 69.51 North Dakota State 2 85 64.78 Eastern Washington 3 88 64.56 Illinois State 4 94 63.57 South Dakota State 5 95 63.42 Jacksonville State 6 96 63.35 Sam Houston State 7 99 63.05 Youngstown State 8 101 61.75 Northern Iowa 9 104 60.83 Chattanooga 10 106 60.80 Samford 11 108 60.55 Western Illinois 12 110 60.32 Southern Illinois 13 111 59.86 Villanova 14 115 59.03 Coastal Carolina 15 117 58.53 Montana 16 118 58.25 James Madison 17 121 57.82 SE Louisiana 18 123 57.75 William & Mary 19 129 56.79 Cal Poly-SLO 20 130 56.75 Indiana State 21 134 55.40 Montana State 22 137 54.10 Eastern Kentucky 23 138 53.55 Wofford 24 140 53.40 Harvard 25 144 52.85 Portland State
Code:Rank Conference CntMean NDSU 1 SEC 82.19 14 2 BIG 12 80.15 10 3 ACC 76.31 14 4 BIG TEN 75.69 13 5 PAC-12 75.34 11 6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.49 3 7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.75 5 8 MWC 65.35 2 9 CONFERENCE USA 60.53 4 10 MISSOURI VALLEY 60.24 1 11 MAC 58.47 2 12 SUN BELT 54.90 1 13 BIG SKY 51.40 1 14 SOUTHERN 48.84 1 15 COLONIAL 48.54 1 16 OHIO VALLEY 45.45 1 17 SOUTHLAND 43.48 1 18 BIG SOUTH 41.25 1 19 IVY LEAGUE 38.84 1 20 PATRIOT 37.20 1 21 NORTHEAST 36.68 1 22 MID-EASTERN 33.42 1 23 SWAC 29.08 1 24 PIONEER 23.63 1
I love this thread, not much BS...data and objective stuff about upcoming stuff.