2015 Sagarin Says

[CAS4127]

umm...ok that's what I said, splitting hairs here I think

Then you should have agreed with him, not disagree.


Sent from my iPhone.

[tjbison]

Then you should have agreed with him, not disagree.


Sent from my iPhone.

I do not agree they are the dark horse to win it all....I stated my reason why they are not, I think you are not reading it right

[1998braves64]

Definition of a dark horse:
b :an entrant in a contest that is judged unlikely to succeed

Have to love bisonville we argue even when we agree.
Sent from Win8 phone on a bullet train from Hillsboro.

[taper]

Holy crap, don't you guys have better things to do? Dark horse = team that isn't expected to win but just might. Out of SDSU, UNI, and Montana, UM is the one I'm most worried about beating us. Mostly because UNI always finds a way to piss away the playoffs.

[Hammersmith]

Never seen a true 0.00 pickem. ISUr's home field advantage is exactly the same as our rating advantage(to two decimal places).

The 16pt advantage we have over Montana this week is something of a mirage. Sag can't take into effect the return of Mont's QB. Their rating would be much higher if you only consider the games he played in.


Sagarin's 2015 Playoff Round 2 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 59	North Dakota State  	72.17				
110	Montana             	58.72	+10.77	 -3.00	-13.77	
162	Weber State         	47.65	+27.20	+27.00	 -0.20	
142	North Dakota        	50.29	+24.56	+25.00	 +0.44	
 89	South Dakota State  	64.11	 +5.38	+21.00	+15.62	
 81	Northern Iowa       	66.42	 +8.43	 +3.00	 -5.43	
144	South Dakota        	50.04	+24.81	 -3.00	-27.81	
134	Indiana State       	51.59	+17.90	+14.00	 -3.90	
120	Southern Illinois   	55.22	+14.27	 +6.00	 -8.27	
115	Western Illinois    	57.29	+17.56	+52.00	+34.44	
112	Youngstown State    	58.58	+10.91	 +3.00	 -7.91	
227	Missouri State      	30.30	+44.55	+55.00	+10.45	
						
110	Montana             	58.72	+16.13			
						
105	Portland State      	59.94	+14.91			
 81	Northern Iowa       	66.42	 +8.43			
						
 68	Illinois State      	69.49	 +0.00			
						
 82	Jacksonville State  	66.21	 +5.96			
						
					Total Diff:	 -6.34	
	Home Field		 2.68

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 59	72.17	North Dakota State  			
 2	 68	69.49	Illinois State      			
 3	 81	66.42	Northern Iowa       			
 4	 82	66.21	Jacksonville State  			
 5	 89	64.11	South Dakota State  			
 6	 95	62.07	Chattanooga         			
 7	 98	61.27	Sam Houston State   			
 8	101	60.60	Southern Utah       			
 9	102	60.31	James Madison       			
10	104	60.11	McNeese State       			
11	105	59.94	Portland State      			
12	107	59.88	Harvard             			
13	110	58.72	Montana             			
14	111	58.59	William & Mary      			
15	112	58.58	Youngstown State    			
16	113	58.36	The Citadel         			
17	114	57.75	Dartmouth           			
18	115	57.29	Western Illinois    			
19	117	56.56	Coastal Carolina    			
20	118	56.05	Richmond            			
21	120	55.22	Southern Illinois   			
22	121	54.71	Charleston Southern 			
23	126	52.88	Villanova           			
24	127	52.84	Samford             			
25	130	52.33	Western Carolina

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
1	BIG 12              	79.23	8			
2	SEC                 	77.40	11			
3	PAC-12              	75.72	11			
4	ACC                 	75.54	11			
5	BIG TEN             	75.31	9			
6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	73.24	3			
7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.87	6			
8	MWC                 	61.06	3			
9	MAC                 	59.91	3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.41	1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.20	2			
12	SUN BELT            	54.46	2			
13	BIG SKY             	48.61	1			
14	SOUTHERN            	46.96	1			
15	COLONIAL            	45.86	1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.69	1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	44.40	1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	42.10	1			
19	SOUTHLAND           	41.01	1			
20	PATRIOT             	35.69	1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.44	1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.43	1			
23	SWAC                	26.83	1			
24	PIONEER             	24.97	1

[Hammersmith]

And Sag didn't do all that well in the first round. Only 5-3. Humans who knew what they were doing(not Fargo media) were picking 6 or 7 correct.

[bisonaudit]

Team....................... Rd2..... Qtr... Semi.. Final

Jacksonville State.... 75.8% 62.2% 45.8% 18.2%
Chattanooga........... 24.2% 15.9%.. 7.5%.. 2.2%
Charleston Southern 54.8% 11.0%.. 3.2%.. 0.5%
The Citadel............. 45.2% 10.9%.. 4.0%. 0.8%

James Madison........ 94.2% 44.7% 17.7%. 4.4%
Colgate.................... 5.8%.. 0.5%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
McNeese State........ 62.0% 36.8% 14.4%.. 3.5%
Sam Houston State.. 38.0% 18.1%.. 7.3%. 2.0%


North Dakota State.. 91.6% 72.8% 42.8% 32.0%
Montana................... 8.4%.. 2.5%.. 0.6%. 0.2%
Portland State.......... 46.5%.. 8.1%. 2.3%. 1.0%
Northern Iowa.......... 53.5% 16.5%.. 6.9%. 4.1%

Richmond................ 58.1%.. 9.2%. 1.3%.. 0.4%
William & Mary......... 41.9%.. 8.5%. 1.6%.. 0.6%
Illinois State............ 90.2% 78.1% 43.8% 29.9%
Western Illinois.......... 9.8%. 4.2%.. 0.6%.. 0.2%

[MrSnuffleupagus]

Poor poor Colgate..

[NDSU1980]

Poor poor Colgate..

Heck, Montana isn't much better off. In the absence of Tatanka: LOL@big fluffy

[bisonaudit]

Team....................... Qtr... Semi.. Final

Jacksonville State.... 83.2% 60.7% 23.1%
Charleston Southern 16.8%.. 7.6%.. 1.1%
Colgate.................... 9.6%.. 0.7%.. 0.0%
Sam Houston State.. 90.4% 31.1%.. 8.1%

North Dakota State.. 73.3% 42.0% 31.0%
Northern Iowa......... 26.7% 10.6%.. 6.3%
Richmond............... 14.7%.. 2.3%.. 0.8%
Illinois State............ 85.3% 45.0% 29.6%