2015 Sagarin Says

[westnodak93bison]

Got it. It's been a while.

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[Bison03]

There are only 2,048 (2^11) possible permutations of 11 game results (assuming no ties) so once I've got the % chance to win each game it's just brute force multiplication to calculate the chance of each of those permutations occurring and then summing them up to get the chance for each record. Once the table is set up excel updates the calculation in a blink. Learn to love: if/then, countif, sumif and lock down those cell references $.

[NDSU1980]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0 28.9%
10-1 39.4%
9-2.. 22.8%
8-3.... 7.3%
7-4.... 1.4%
6-5.... 0.2%
5-6.... 0.01%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00001%
2-9.... 0.0000002%
1-10.. 0.000000001%
0-11.. 0.000000000002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64

How can Weber be an easier game than UN_ when Weber is ranked 179 and UN_ is at 190?

[yopaulie]

I have always enjoyed this thread, and comparisons, when we were always nearly undefeated. Lets show we're still at that level, before getting too excited. could be a year of shootouts, with a lot to prove this season.

[Thundering Herd]

Can we end this thread . Seriously, why do we sit here and jerk off about some computer ranking . It means nothing.

Some guys love football. Some guys like crunching numbers. Some guys like to bring the two together and use math to help predict outcomes. Some guys cry like little bitches and need to learn to not read certain threads if they don't interest them.

[yopaulie]

Some guys love football. Some guys like crunching numbers. Some guys like to bring the two together and use math to help predict outcomes. Some guys cry like little bitches and need to learn to not read certain threads if they don't interest them.

This. There are threads I follow, and threads I don't. But I appreciate the sheer amount of discussion on the forum. Don't get why people try to shut down legit topics. I started following the main Wyoming forum site (I am not one of the Bohl haters), and that forum is like a ghost town for real football discussion. Unless you want to talk about whether the uni's should change. Then its a 5 page thread.

[thebootfitter]

Can we end this thread . Seriously, why do we sit here and jerk off about some computer ranking . It means nothing.

Gosh, I didn't realize people jerked off to this thread. Go nuts, 2011 dude, go nuts. Whatever gets you off.

As to your comment that it means nothing... Hmm... Early in the season, you may be onto something. But since it exists even early in the season, we may as well still follow it until it actually has a little more value.

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[missingnumber7]

Can we end this thread . Seriously, why do we sit here and jerk off about some computer ranking . It means nothing.

Thanks for your weekly post...your input is valuable and will be taken for what it is...moving on.

[Rock]

Gosh, I didn't realize people jerked off to this thread. Go nuts, 2011 dude, go nuts.

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Mods, any possibility to combine this thread with bikini thread to save some people time?

Also be nice to have standardized rankings on the bikinis.

[Hammersmith]

Wow, he actually updated his ratings after our game. As you can imagine, we tumbled a lot. Still the top FCS team.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 1 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 70	North Dakota State  	68.49				
103	Montana             	61.42	 +4.42	 -3.00	-7.42	
179	Weber State         	44.53	+26.61			
190	North Dakota        	42.30	+28.84			
 98	South Dakota State  	62.10	 +3.74			
 82	Northern Iowa       	66.84	 +4.30			
165	South Dakota        	48.07	+23.07			
119	Indiana State       	57.69	 +8.15			
114	Southern Illinois   	58.56	 +7.28			
148	Western Illinois    	53.75	+17.39			
102	Youngstown State    	61.55	 +4.29			
136	Missouri State      	55.51	+15.63			
						
 84	Illinois State      	66.18				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-7.42	
	Home Field		 2.65

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 70	68.49	North Dakota State  			
 2	 82	66.84	Northern Iowa       			
 3	 84	66.18	Illinois State      			
 4	 92	63.71	Sam Houston State   			
 5	 94	62.96	Chattanooga         			
 6	 98	62.10	South Dakota State  			
 7	 99	61.94	Villanova           			
 8	100	61.78	Jacksonville State  			
 9	102	61.55	Youngstown State    			
10	103	61.42	Montana             			
11	104	61.12	Eastern Washington  			
12	108	60.38	Coastal Carolina    			
13	114	58.56	Southern Illinois   			
14	117	58.07	New Hampshire       			
15	119	57.69	Indiana State       			
16	122	57.42	Eastern Illinois    			
17	128	56.73	SE Louisiana        			
18	129	56.61	James Madison       			
19	130	56.45	Montana State       			
20	131	56.41	Samford             			
21	136	55.51	Missouri State      			
22	140	54.86	Wofford             			
23	141	54.55	Liberty             			
24	142	54.46	Harvard             			
25	144	54.23	Cal Poly-SLO

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Conference             CntMean NDSU						
SEC                 	81.65	14				
BIG 12              	80.26	10				
PAC-12              	77.52	12				
ACC                 	75.92	13				
BIG TEN             	75.43	11				
I-A INDEPENDENTS    	72.11	3				
AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	65.60	6				
MWC                 	64.55	4				
MISSOURI VALLEY     	60.08	1				
CONFERENCE USA      	59.59	4				
MAC                 	58.84	2				
SUN BELT            	56.82	1				
COLONIAL            	49.60	1				
BIG SKY             	48.88	1				
SOUTHERN            	47.76	1				
OHIO VALLEY         	47.19	1				
SOUTHLAND           	44.91	1				
BIG SOUTH           	41.13	1				
IVY LEAGUE          	39.93	1				
PATRIOT             	38.50	1				
NORTHEAST           	37.21	1				
MID-EASTERN         	35.58	1				
SWAC                	29.88	1				
PIONEER             	24.15	1