2015 Sagarin Says

[BisonHorns]

I watched the Jacksonville game on Saturday. I am shocked they are polled so high. The valley would break them.

[bisonaudit]

I watched the Jacksonville game on Saturday. I am shocked they are polled so high. The valley would break them.

Jacksonville or Jacksonville State?

[BisonHorns]

Jacksonvills State and they won by a touchdown. I would feel way better about Saturdays game if we were playing them. Still the bunnies are going down.

[yopaulie]

Down year for the mvfc...only better than 2 FBS conferences.

[Hammersmith]

When you win by a margin three TDs greater than predicted, you go up a bit. NDSU jumps 12 spots to #59. Eight Valley teams in the top-25, six in the top-11, and all four top spots. The Valley is still in spitting distance of the MWC and MAC. Big Sky and CAA still fighting for the #2 FCS conference. On paper, the YSU game is almost a toss-up.

Sag doesn't post this info anymore, but I think we're very close to the point of only using data from the 2015 season.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 6 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 59	North Dakota State  	72.14				
123	Montana             	56.16	+13.27	 -3.00	-16.27	
176	Weber State         	44.10	+30.75	+27.00	 -3.75	
166	North Dakota        	46.99	+27.86	+25.00	 -2.86	
 85	South Dakota State  	64.10	 +5.33	+21.00	+15.67	
 98	Northern Iowa       	62.05	+12.80			
153	South Dakota        	51.17	+23.68			
138	Indiana State       	53.45	+15.98			
108	Southern Illinois   	60.27	 +9.16			
128	Western Illinois    	55.47	+19.38			
 75	Youngstown State    	67.64	 +1.79			
210	Missouri State      	35.61	+39.24			
						
 78	Illinois State      	66.53				
						
						
					Total Diff:	 -7.21	
	Home Field		 2.71

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 59	72.14	North Dakota State  			
 2	 75	67.64	Youngstown State    			
 3	 78	66.53	Illinois State      			
 4	 85	64.10	South Dakota State  			
 5	 94	63.06	Coastal Carolina    			
 6	 96	62.55	Jacksonville State  			
 7	 98	62.05	Northern Iowa       			
 8	 99	61.88	Chattanooga         			
 9	102	61.51	James Madison       			
10	107	60.31	Harvard             			
11	108	60.27	Southern Illinois   			
12	112	58.59	Eastern Washington  			
13	114	58.12	William & Mary      			
14	115	57.71	Sam Houston State   			
15	119	56.60	Southern Utah       			
16	120	56.59	McNeese State       			
17	123	56.16	Montana             			
18	124	56.05	Dartmouth           			
19	128	55.47	Western Illinois    			
20	132	55.04	Montana State       			
21	133	54.98	Samford             			
22	137	53.62	Liberty             			
23	138	53.45	Indiana State       			
24	139	53.43	Cal Poly-SLO        			
25	140	53.32	Villanova

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	80.52	 9			
 2	SEC                 	78.84	13			
 3	ACC                 	77.25	11			
 4	BIG TEN             	75.67	10			
 5	PAC-12              	75.55	10			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	75.04	 3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	66.72	 5			
 8	MWC                 	61.79	 2			
 9	MAC                 	60.82	 2			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	59.84	 1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	57.23	 3			
12	SUN BELT            	55.01	 1			
13	BIG SKY             	48.12	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	48.02	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	45.83	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	45.51	 1			
17	SOUTHLAND           	43.03	 1			
18	IVY LEAGUE          	42.92	 1			
19	BIG SOUTH           	41.88	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	36.04	 1			
21	NORTHEAST           	36.01	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.20	 1			
23	SWAC                	27.64	 1			
24	PIONEER             	24.34	 1

Bonus: MVFC FCS rankings:
1. NDSU
2. YSU
3. ISUr
4. SDSU
7. UNI
11.SIU
19. WIU
23. ISUb
35. USD
82. MSU

[No_Skill]

In years past I believe it was week 5 or 6 where it became well connected. It's good to see us back up in the 50's.

[Gully]

Looking forward to Audit's update....since SDSU was our least likely game to win based on Sagarin, beating them handily should really increase our percentage chances of 8-3 or better because we now have a tough game in the rear view mirror (with a win) and our score went up following such a dominating performance. I'm hoping to see a 90%+ chance of 8-3 or better.

[NDSUSR]

Bitch slap UNI and were golden.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

10-1 26.8% +16.8% from last week
9-2.. 43.1% +13.9%
8-3.. 23.5%. -10.3%
7-4... 5.8%. -13.9%
6-5... 0.7%... -5.5%
5-6... 0.04%
4-7... 0.001%
3-8... 0.000001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.UNI... 82.8% 13.0. +7.2% +3.5 change from last week
v.USD.. 95.9% 23.5. +7.5% +7.5
@Ind St 88.1% 16.0. +2.2% +1.5
@S Ill... 75.1%. 9.0 +12.0% +4.5
v.W Ill.. 92.3% 19.5. +1.4% +1.5
@YSU... 55.3%. 2.0... -2.0% -0.5
v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0.. +0.5% +5.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--.. @YSU... 55.3%. 2.0
--.. @S Ill... 75.1%. 9.0
--.. v.UNI... 82.8% 13.0
--.. @Ind St 88.1% 16.0
+1 v.W Ill.. 92.3% 19.5
-1. v.USD.. 95.9% 23.5
--.. v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0

[bisonaudit]

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Red Birds at Guins is the closest contest this week.