2015 Sagarin Says

[BisManBison]

Initial Sagarin Rankings are out. We come in at #48. Northern Iowa 82 and ISUr at 84.


Edit: If you want the old Sagarin Says thread, it be here: http://www.bisonville.com/forum/show...2-Sagarin-says

[THEsocalledfan]

So took a quick look and I don't see only two G5 schools in Boise and Cincinnati higher than us. Did I read that right? (Yes, stick that in you eye, B1G.)

[NDSU1980]

Initial Sagarin Rankings are out. We come in at #48. Northern Iowa 82 and ISUr at 84.

So is this based entirely on last years teams or do they try and do a little adjusting?

Also see that Montana State and Montana are listed at 129 and 130. (Your cue Tatanka )

http://www.sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[BisManBison]

So is this based entirely on last years teams or do they try and do a little adjusting?

Also see that Montana State and Montana are listed at 129 and 130. (Your cue Tatanka )

http://www.sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Yes ,

Honestly, there are guys on here a lot smarter than I am in regards to the algorithm Sagarin uses, but it's my understanding it uses data from last year as well this year for at least the first month or so.

[MinotBison]

Initial Sagarin Rankings are out. We come in at #48. Northern Iowa 82 and ISUr at 84.

Weber St. is 179 and UN* is 190.

[ZHerd]

Yes ,

Honestly, there are guys on here a lot smarter than I am in regards to the algorithm Sagarin uses, but it's my understanding it uses data from last year as well this year for at least the first month or so.

Because it based so much on last season I wouldn't put too much stock in it for the first couple weeks. For example, I definitely think you will see Ill St. and even UN_ climb much higher than their current positions...UNI and Montana have had some big changes and can't be predicted on modeling based off last season. My hunch is that both (especially UNI) will be very good this year but who knows early on

[Tatanka]

LOL @ Big Fluffy
Sent from my online-only virtual dorm room.

[thebootfitter]

I think it is usually around mid-Oct that the teams are well connected enough to drop the starting values based on previous years' data. So, yes... Definitely take these ratings with a heavy grain of salt the first several weeks.

Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0 28.9%
10-1 39.4%
9-2.. 22.8%
8-3.... 7.3%
7-4.... 1.4%
6-5.... 0.2%
5-6.... 0.01%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00001%
2-9.... 0.0000002%
1-10.. 0.000000001%
0-11.. 0.000000000002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64

[westnodak93bison]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

11-0 28.9%
10-1 39.4%
9-2.. 22.8%
8-3.... 7.3%
7-4.... 1.4%
6-5.... 0.2%
5-6.... 0.01%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00001%
2-9.... 0.0000002%
1-10.. 0.000000001%
0-11.. 0.000000000002%

Opp... Win%.. Line
Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
Weber 99.5% 35.64
UND... 99.5% 35.27
SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
USD... 98.5% 29.50
Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05

How do you calculate the 10-1, 9-2 etc. percentages when you don't know who we will lose too? Are you assuming we lose the 1 or 2 games etc to the best team(s)? Randomly pick the opponent who beats us?