A new and better FBS thread

[daddy daycare]

I would think now more than ever the MWC cares about stability. Which school(s) do they believe can give them that longish term? Who knows.

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What’s the reason for them to change anything as of right now? if they lose zero schools they’re in great shape when the G5 is split from the P5.

[NDSU92]

What’s the reason for them to change anything as of right now? if they lose zero schools they’re in great shape when the G5 is split from the P5.

Yeah the MW has little if any benefit to adding us and Montana currently. If they lose Boise and SDSU (or anyone else), they would have some major reasons to add us and Montana.

I don't know much, but I think that as it currently sits we don't have much chance getting into the MW unless something crazy happens. However, if they lose two schools, I'd say the chances are pretty good we're in the MW within a year.

[Grizzled]

Yeah the MW has little if any benefit to adding us and Montana currently. If they lose Boise and SDSU (or anyone else), they would have some major reasons to add us and Montana.

I don't know much, but I think that as it currently sits we don't have much chance getting into the MW unless something crazy happens. However, if they lose two schools, I'd say the chances are pretty good we're in the MW within a year.

Is your percentage on “pretty good” greater than 50%?

[daddy daycare]

Yeah the MW has little if any benefit to adding us and Montana currently. If they lose Boise and SDSU (or anyone else), they would have some major reasons to add us and Montana.

I don't know much, but I think that as it currently sits we don't have much chance getting into the MW unless something crazy happens. However, if they lose two schools, I'd say the chances are pretty good we're in the MW within a year.

I don't think Montana is going anywhere without Montana State. That's a problem for NDSU.

[NDSU92]

Is your percentage on “pretty good” greater than 50%?

I'd say 51%. There's still a decent chance that the MW doesn't immediately replace and chooses to wait out the next dominoes to fall. There's also a much smaller chance that they take NMSU and UTEP instead (moves which don't bring them any new geographic areas, don't bring them competitive programs, and would in a best case scenario instead compete for eyeballs with an existing conference mate).

Add the Grizz and NDSU, and the Mountain West has first dibs on every football-loving eyeball from Missoula to Fergus Falls and probably down to Pierre even. That's a hell of a market capture without any significant competitors.

[NDSU92]

I don't think Montana is going anywhere without Montana State. That's a problem for NDSU.

Yeah, admittedly I don't know Montana politics. I guess I assumed that if NDSU can break through ND Legislature without UND, Montana would be able to do the same. I guess Montana State doesn't have a "teh hockies" pillow to grab and make themselves feel better about their rival leaving them in the dust...

Montana has an intense rivalry with MSU, but the feeling they would have about NDSU leaving them in the dust would be enough to motivate them leaving MSU in the dust themselves. Sell it to the legislature that these are crazy times and Montana getting their foot in the door is a future foot in the door for Montana State and they're good to go.

[abc123]

I'd say 51%. There's still a decent chance that the MW doesn't immediately replace and chooses to wait out the next dominoes to fall. There's also a much smaller chance that they take NMSU and UTEP instead (moves which don't bring them any new geographic areas, don't bring them competitive programs, and would in a best case scenario instead compete for eyeballs with an existing conference mate).

Add the Grizz and NDSU, and the Mountain West has first dibs on every football-loving eyeball from Missoula to Fergus Falls and probably down to Pierre even. That's a hell of a market capture without any significant competitors.

Not saying that NMSU and UTEP would be high on the MWC radar, but as a conference that is fairly tight-knight (or as close as you can get in the western US), not over expanding their footprint may actually be the preference. You have bulit in travel partners an hour apart. That could be attractive when looking at expenses if the conference is losing two of their bigger "name-brands", which will have negative impact on any media contracts.
And while El Paso is right on the TX/NM border, it would still allow them to dip their toes into Texas, which continues to be attractive for conferences.
Hypothetically picking up a bunch of land (which encompasses plenty of fans of other schools and non-fans) isn't going to move the needle outside of increasing travel costs. The amount of eyeballs (which is what actually matters) in that vast land capture isn't all that big. While El Paso-Las Cruses CSA isn't huge, it is still about 1.1 million.

Plenty of uncertainty, and who knows what will actually shake out. All I would say is that it is a pretty big stretch to guess that there's a 51% chance of anything specifically happening if 2 other schools leave and is nothing but wishful thinking.

[daddy daycare]

Yeah, admittedly I don't know Montana politics. I guess I assumed that if NDSU can break through ND Legislature without UND, Montana would be able to do the same. I guess Montana State doesn't have a "teh hockies" pillow to grab and make themselves feel better about their rival leaving them in the dust...

Montana has an intense rivalry with MSU, but the feeling they would have about NDSU leaving them in the dust would be enough to motivate them leaving MSU in the dust themselves. Sell it to the legislature that these are crazy times and Montana getting their foot in the door is a future foot in the door for Montana State and they're good to go.

I've always read they're a package deal BUUUTTTTTTT....the internet could be wrong lol.

[NDSU92]

Not saying that NMSU and UTEP would be high on the MWC radar, but as a conference that is fairly tight-knight (or as close as you can get in the western US), not over expanding their footprint may actually be the preference. You have bulit in travel partners an hour apart. That could be attractive when looking at expenses if the conference is losing two of their bigger "name-brands", which will have negative impact on any media contracts.
And while El Paso is right on the TX/NM border, it would still allow them to dip their toes into Texas, which continues to be attractive for conferences.
Hypothetically picking up a bunch of land (which encompasses plenty of fans of other schools and non-fans) isn't going to move the needle outside of increasing travel costs. The amount of eyeballs (which is what actually matters) in that vast land capture isn't all that big. While El Paso-Las Cruses CSA isn't huge, it is still about 1.1 million.

Plenty of uncertainty, and who knows what will actually shake out. All I would say is that it is a pretty big stretch to guess that there's a 51% chance of anything specifically happening if 2 other schools leave and is nothing but wishful thinking.

Sure travel is easier, but that's really not a reason to take them in. That argument hasn't worked for those schools in the past. UTEP has 1.1M in their metro and they still can't find more than 15k to their football games. Again, because everyone in El Paso has at least one bigger and better school that they're actual fans of, opposed to NDSU and Montana. As far as the "Texas" argument, Kansas City is closer to the major Texas population centers than El Paso.

What actually matters is how many people will actually tune into your games. More people watch NDSU football games when they are on broadcast television than UTEP and NM State combined. The biggest strength isn't the size of the land, it's the lack of competition. What does adding NMSU and UTEP get you? The remaining quarter of New Mexicans that aren't UNM fans and the 5% of El Paso that cares about UTEP instead of Texas Tech? To your point, the biggest concern is how to replace their two largest money makers for the TV deal. I doubt the commissioner's grand plan includes replacing them with UTEP and NMSU.

[ByeSonBusiness]

Not sure you guys are looking at the right Montana school.