A new and better FBS thread

[BigHorns]

Mandel at the Athletic has a mailbag response and article on why ultimately, the top 24-32 FBS teams will leave and form a mini NFL style league
Its a good read. He points to a book on how the English premier league formed, and why FBS is headed the same place now.

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/...951616512?s=20

[OrygunBison]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/0...-mountain-west

[Hammerhead]

Und is barely an fcs level program. There is no world in which grand forks is more appealing than SDSU

No outdoor football game in December if UND somehow managed to make it to the conference championship game.

[bisonaudit]

Mandel at the Athletic has a mailbag response and article on why ultimately, the top 24-32 FBS teams will leave and form a mini NFL style league
Its a good read. He points to a book on how the English premier league formed, and why FBS is headed the same place now.

https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/...951616512?s=20

I guess we’re just ignoring the bit where there’s access for everyone else to the league via promotion/relegation. They also share something like 20 percent of their TV revenue to the EFL to support the rest of the pyramid and participate in two in season tournaments that support the lower leagues as well.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

I guess we’re just ignoring the bit where there’s access for everyone else to the league via promotion/relegation. They also share something like 20 percent of their TV revenue to the EFL to support the rest of the pyramid and participate in two in season tournaments that support the lower leagues as well.

Exactly
Kelly's idea of two playoffs [P5 and G5 (no FCS)] is much more likely IMO
These guys would never accept relegation, or sharing for that matter, and that's the only way this model would work
Greed will bite them in the ass at some point

[NDSU92]

I guess we’re just ignoring the bit where there’s access for everyone else to the league via promotion/relegation. They also share something like 20 percent of their TV revenue to the EFL to support the rest of the pyramid and participate in two in season tournaments that support the lower leagues as well.

This is America audit. Land of opportunity for the haves. No way the have nots are getting a sniff of any money, access, branding eventually. Why would the fat cats do something stupid like give away money for the good of anyone else when they could just get fatter themselves. They’ve proven that they’ll wreck everything in an attempt to make just a little bit more money, why would they stop now?

I’ve always said that the P5 wouldn’t break off due to the lawyer fees that would happen on the anti-trust aspect. With how much money is getting thrown around I don’t think those fees are going to be getting in the way for much longer.

Tin foil hat time: the P5 been wanting to break away for a long time. Couldn’t break away due to anti-trust issues. Their plan b which we’re now seeing is to wreck the college athletics landscape enough to be able to validate a claim that major reform is in order. That reform just so happens to be creating an exclusive super league where they get all the money. They learned their lesson from European soccer - don’t fix something that isn’t broken, break it first.

[scottietohottie]

This isn't futboll it's futboll Americano eh!

[BigHorns]

This is America audit. Land of opportunity for the haves. No way the have nots are getting a sniff of any money, access, branding eventually. Why would the fat cats do something stupid like give away money for the good of anyone else when they could just get fatter themselves. They’ve proven that they’ll wreck everything in an attempt to make just a little bit more money, why would they stop now?

I’ve always said that the P5 wouldn’t break off due to the lawyer fees that would happen on the anti-trust aspect. With how much money is getting thrown around I don’t think those fees are going to be getting in the way for much longer.

Tin foil hat time: the P5 been wanting to break away for a long time. Couldn’t break away due to anti-trust issues. Their plan b which we’re now seeing is to wreck the college athletics landscape enough to be able to validate a claim that major reform is in order. That reform just so happens to be creating an exclusive super league where they get all the money. They learned their lesson from European soccer - don’t fix something that isn’t broken, break it first.

This will likely come in stages, and take a little while longer, but all the moves support it
- NIL and transfer portal help the schools with the most money harvest all the talent, everyone else becomes farm league for them
- consolidation of power schools with increasingly large conference payouts ... now the schools with only $30m feel poor next to those with $70m payouts. This is escalating the mad rush for consolidation. G5 makes peanuts next to this, and won't be able to keep up.
- already talk of reworking the CFP before it starts, removing the G5 slot, and making it all at large bids the top power conferences can soak up. They will use the first blowout between Alabama/OSU and the G5 champ as an excuse to dump that spot, and say there are "more deserving" teams. Any real G5 access to the CFP will disappear in 3 years when they rework that contract.

The current model just won't be sustainable on this path, the only question is what comes next for those outside the P2 or P3.

[BISONBRI53]

This will likely come in stages, and take a little while longer, but all the moves support it
- NIL and transfer portal help the schools with the most money harvest all the talent, everyone else becomes farm league for them
- consolidation of power schools with increasingly large conference payouts ... now the schools with only $30m feel poor next to those with $70m payouts. This is escalating the mad rush for consolidation. G5 makes peanuts next to this, and won't be able to keep up.
- already talk of reworking the CFP before it starts, removing the G5 slot, and making it all at large bids the top power conferences can soak up. They will use the first blowout between Alabama/OSU and the G5 champ as an excuse to dump that spot, and say there are "more deserving" teams. Any real G5 access to the CFP will disappear in 3 years when they rework that contract.

The current model just won't be sustainable on this path, the only question is what comes next for those outside the P2 or P3.

Could the NCAA step in then and say for the remaining schools left out in the cold that the NCAA will form a new division. Upper FCS (us) and the remaining schools will be in that 2nd tier and play a league with a champion.... Just like FCS now D2 D3 and everyone else... If the big boys want a separation from everyone else but want to keep the NCAA name then they should HAVE to play at least 1 lower level game a year with a large payout to that school...

[BigLakeBison]

This will likely come in stages, and take a little while longer, but all the moves support it
- NIL and transfer portal help the schools with the most money harvest all the talent, everyone else becomes farm league for them
- consolidation of power schools with increasingly large conference payouts ... now the schools with only $30m feel poor next to those with $70m payouts. This is escalating the mad rush for consolidation. G5 makes peanuts next to this, and won't be able to keep up.
- already talk of reworking the CFP before it starts, removing the G5 slot, and making it all at large bids the top power conferences can soak up. They will use the first blowout between Alabama/OSU and the G5 champ as an excuse to dump that spot, and say there are "more deserving" teams. Any real G5 access to the CFP will disappear in 3 years when they rework that contract.

The current model just won't be sustainable on this path, the only question is what comes next for those outside the P2 or P3.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I just don't see how they are going to pull that off without a revolt. I understand that money is the driving force in this but if they don't acknowledge that a good portion of that money is coming from fans of the Universities outside of the top 40 or so programs than they are completely missing the mark on what I think makes college football so popular. They've totally leaned into the other way of thinking on the basketball side of things and realize that giving all conferences a path to the tournament makes the entire thing more popular, even if the majority of mid-major or below teams have really no chance of getting past the first round. The interest is greater and generates more money because of this. They could have a 16 team tournament of all at large picks that would likely result in a similar outcome, but the casual interest outside of the 16 teams would be reduced greatly. I just don't see how essentially the same decision makers (Presidents and ADs) can go entirely in the opposite direction with Football and be so arrogant as to think that by excluding that number of fans that they are going to continue to generate the overall interest. Makes no sense to me, but what do I know.