That won’t happen, no one is leaving that much cash and control on the table. The current tv deal goes to 2026, all that tv cash and exit fees will be taken by the original members. They just need to prevent the conference folding. Same reason the PAC won’t fold, the remnants will not be able to get a better deal elsewhere.
The current tv deal can be unilaterally ended by the providers should schools leave the MW and they will do just that.. With the lineup you are suggesting, the travel will be horrendous and there will be no future tv deal to cover any of the added expense. If the departing schools wish to leave, they can wait until 2026 and pay no exit fees..AFA will leave. Hawaii will go independent..I think NV and SJSU will drop football. UTEP will have zero interest in joining. New Mexico will definitely look east. Same with USU..
So your conference is Wyoming and 7 or 8 FCS schools..Why you would want any part of a gutted MW is perplexing to me.
TV will keep the deal for the original members for two years and scalp the new members to keep the time zone content. Future deals will be CUSA level. The part I think you are missing are the exit fees. If the raid happens this year the remaining members need to collect those fees. It could be worth more than their next contract but you still need a conference to collect the exit fees.
The MWC in all my scenarios require the PAC to move first via the 4 corner schools. It’s the only way I see NDSU moving up, but to your last question on why care? It’s FBS and even in the worst version of the MWC it would have better public peer institutions… not Murray St, UNI, SIU, YSU.