Milestone Watch

[bisonaudit]

I'm looking at the numbers that you have for John Crockett. IF the Bison play 16 games this year and IF John were to maintain his current average of 130 yards per game for all of those 16 games he would end his career with 4218 yards? Wow. That's 2000 yards this season. Go John.

So what you're seeing in the cones are the results of 1,000 sims of the remaining games. The top and bottom lines are the largest and smallest results, so 1,000 to 1. The next two are +/- 2 standard deviations. You'd expect an outcome between those two lines about 95% of the time. The next two closer to the center are +/- 1 standard deviation. You'd expect an outcome between those two lines about 2/3 of the time. The line in the center of the cone is the average result.

The model uses the player's career game-by-game statistics, placing more weight on recent games, to make its projections.

It's the same process that I used for Jensen and Olson last season (which is why there are 4 playoff games on the graphs).

[HerdBoy]

1000 simulations. OK understand. Very good work.

[bisonaudit]

John Crockett:
Career Rushing Yards: 10th 2,662, needs 176 to pass Stark for 9th.
Career All Purpose Yards: 3,141, needs 526 to enter the top 10.

Zach Vraa:
Career Receptions: 6th 123, needs 12 to pass McDonald for 5th.
Career Receiving Yards: 5th 1,949, needs 284 to pass Holloway for 4th.
Career Receiving TDs: 4th 19, needs 4 to pass McDonald for 3rd.

Adam Keller:
Career PAT1s: 4th 145, needs 1 to pass Vartanian for 3rd.
Career FGs: 4th 31, needs 1 to pass Jastram for 3rd.
Career Points: 238, needs 7 to enter the top 10.

Colten Heagle:
Career Solo Tackles: 3rd 145, needs 3 to pass Humber for 2nd.
Career Total Tackles: 253, needs 42 to enter the top 10.

Christian Dudzik:
Career Solo Tackles: 9th 116, needs 2 to pass Olson for 8th.

Travis Beck:
Career Solo Tackles: 10th 112, needs 5 to pass Dudzik for 9th.
Career Total Tackles: 264, needs 31 to enter the top 10.

Carlton Littlejohn:
Career Solo Tackles: 104, needs 9 to enter the top 10.
Career Total Tackles: 245, needs 50 to enter the top 10.

[bisonaudit]

Crockett: .

Slide12.JPGSlide13.JPG

[bisonaudit]

Vraa: .

Slide3.JPGSlide1.JPGSlide2.JPG

[bisonaudit]

Keller: .

Slide4.JPGSlide5.JPGSlide6.JPG

[bisonaudit]

Tackles: .

Slide7.JPGSlide8.JPGSlide9.JPGSlide10.JPGSlide11.JPG

[89MTBISON]

Thanks, audit. Looks like Heagle will obliterate the solo tackles record. He has been a real treat to watch these last 4+years. I will never forget his game against Georgia Southern in 2011. He singlehandedly blew up their offense, Jaybo Shaw didn't stand a chance.

[bisonaudit]

Thanks, audit. Looks like Heagle will obliterate the solo tackles record. He has been a real treat to watch these last 4+years. I will never forget his game against Georgia Southern in 2011. He singlehandedly blew up their offense, Jaybo Shaw didn't stand a chance.

With a broken hand.

[Hammersmith]

(pi*r^2h)/3