Re: Milestone Watch
Originally Posted by
HerdBoy
I'm looking at the numbers that you have for John Crockett. IF the Bison play 16 games this year and IF John were to maintain his current average of 130 yards per game for all of those 16 games he would end his career with 4218 yards? Wow. That's 2000 yards this season. Go John.
So what you're seeing in the cones are the results of 1,000 sims of the remaining games. The top and bottom lines are the largest and smallest results, so 1,000 to 1. The next two are +/- 2 standard deviations. You'd expect an outcome between those two lines about 95% of the time. The next two closer to the center are +/- 1 standard deviation. You'd expect an outcome between those two lines about 2/3 of the time. The line in the center of the cone is the average result.
The model uses the player's career game-by-game statistics, placing more weight on recent games, to make its projections.
It's the same process that I used for Jensen and Olson last season (which is why there are 4 playoff games on the graphs).
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie