Milestone Watch

[bisonaudit]

Regular Season record book:

Crockett is 8th a rushing yards with 2,741. Projects 2,998 (6th) behind Gordon (4,696) Steffes (3,952), Morris (3,688) Simdorn (3,313) and Satter (3,212), will likely pass Stark (2,837) and then Bentrim (2,945).

Adjusting out post-season Jensen is 2nd to Walker in pass attempts, completions, yards, and TDs. Jensen remains the leader in total yards (passing + rushing) at 7,282 just 52 ahead of Feeney. Jensen drops to 3rd in TDs (passing + rushing) behind Bentrim's 88 and Feeney's 85 and 2 ahead of Simdorn's 72.

Vraa is 7th in career regular season receiving yards with 1,745. Projected 5th (1,905) behind Heckendorf (2,732) McDonald (2,544) Strehlow (2,332) and Kretchman (1,915). Will likely pass White (1,834) then Holloway (1,890).

Vraa is 6th in career regular season receiving TDs with 16. will likely pass Heckendorf (17) and Nelson (18) but not catch McDonald (22) Kretchman (24) or Strehlow (26).

Keller is 8th in total regular season points scored with 254. Projected total 276 (7th) behind Bentrim (386) Gordon (384) Simdorn (318) Bibeau (308) Pederson (304) and Feeney (294). Will likely pass Steffes (258). Keller likely to finish 2nd in FGs made behind Bibeau's 51, trails Pederson for 2nd by just 1 at the moment. Currently on 41.

Heagle is likely to finish 2nd in solo tackles behind Mays's 159. He's on 142 at the moment and needs 5 to tie Humber for 2nd.

[3Putt]

Well, usually they pitched it behind the line of scrimmage so if you were going to do that wouldn't you say, "Bentrim rush for -3 yards, Stark rush for 9 yards?" In that case, it would even out.

BTW, the media guide shows 141 rushes for 1206 yards in the playoffs for Tony Satter and that's not including the first playoff game of 1988 - it could be he didn't get a carry in that game or it could be that the media guide doesn't show his carries because the box scores are so abbreviated.

141 for 1206 = 8.55yards per carry. Nice.

[tony]

141 for 1206 = 8.55yards per carry. Nice.

Considering how many of those games he played with a high ankle sprain makes it even more impressive, and I bet if I do a list of the ten longest runs in Bison history, about 4 of them will be Tony Satter playoff runs.

[Hammerhead]

Considering how many of those games he played with a high ankle sprain makes it even more impressive, and I bet if I do a list of the ten longest runs in Bison history, about 4 of them will be Tony Satter playoff runs.

Do the single-game records in the media guide include playoff games? If so, Satter isn't in the top 10.
http://www.gobison.com/custompages/f...tball#RUSH.LNG

Scanning through the playoff history section, it looks like his longest playoff rush was 70 yards.

[bisonaudit]

There was a nice discussion on the Sagarin thread earlier in the week about how appropriate it is to use a normal distribution to estimate the likelihood of game outcomes compared to the model's predicted result. In that environment I believe it's a proper choice but I'd like to take the opportunity to point out that these milestone projections are also assuming a normal distribution of results around historical average performances and that in looking at the actual distribution of results it's clear that in many instances that is not a good fit. When I put these up last season for Brock and Olson I think I made some of these disclaimers but I didn't repeat them on this year's thread. (check out the Olson Tackles Watch thread for details)

So, consider yourself warned, I've got a hammer and everything looks like a nail.

These things are very quick a dirty projections, the methodology is borrowed from Hollinger's NBA projections and may not be appropriate for college football, the weighting of historical performances may not be correct (I suspect it's not and that more weight should be placed on recent performances than what I'm currently using), The normal distribution is not a good fit for some of the categories, particularly lower frequency events like FG or TDs but tends to be a better fit for thinks like yards or rushing attempts.

Hopefully, I've added enough grains of salt for everyone's taste.

[BlueBisonRock]

Butt it is better than any other methodology being used on Bisonville.

There was a nice discussion on the Sagarin thread earlier in the week about how appropriate it is to use a normal distribution to estimate the likelihood of game outcomes compared to the model's predicted result. In that environment I believe it's a proper choice but I'd like to take the opportunity to point out that these milestone projections are also assuming a normal distribution of results around historical average performances and that in looking at the actual distribution of results it's clear that in many instances that is not a good fit. When I put these up last season for Brock and Olson I think I made some of these disclaimers but I didn't repeat them on this year's thread. (check out the Olson Tackles Watch thread for details)

So, consider yourself warned, I've got a hammer and everything looks like a nail.

These things are very quick a dirty projections, the methodology is borrowed from Hollinger's NBA projections and may not be appropriate for college football, the weighting of historical performances may not be correct (I suspect it's not and that more weight should be placed on recent performances than what I'm currently using), The normal distribution is not a good fit for some of the categories, particularly lower frequency events like FG or TDs but tends to be a better fit for thinks like yards or rushing attempts.

Hopefully, I've added enough grains of salt for everyone's taste.

[bisonaudit]

Vraa:

144 career catches (5th). Needs 4 to pass Smith (147) for 4th. Next week 51%.
2,237 career receiving yards (4th). Passed Holloway (2,232). Needs 96 to pass Strehlow (2,332) for 3rd. Next week 15%. Best chance v. YSU 11/22 45%.
21 career receiving TDs (4th). Needs 2 to pass McDonald (22) for 3rd. Next week 7%. Best chance v. YSU 11/22 24%.


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[bisonaudit]

Keller:

Career FGs made 48 (2nd). Needs 4 to pass Bibeau (51) for 1st. Next week 2%. Best chance Playoff #1 28%.
Career Points scored 310 (4th). Passed Bibeau (308). Needs 9 to pass Simdorn (318) for 3rd. Next week 41%. Best chance v. YSU 11/22 47%.
Career PAT1s made 166 (2nd). Needs 13 to pass Pederson (178) for 1st. Next week 0%. Playoff #1 38%.


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[bisonaudit]

Heagle:

Career solo tackles 174, 1st all-time. On pace for 180 at end of regular season. Projected 191 if 4 playoff games are played.
Career total tackles 302 (9th). Needs 2 to pass Garvey (303) for 8th. Next week 86% (assumes he also stays in front of Beck).

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[bisonaudit]

Dudzik:

Career solo tackles 135 (4th). Passed Dahl (132). Needs 13 to pass Humber (147) for 3rd. Next week 0%.

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