Milestone Watch

[bisonaudit]

Wait. Probably add playoff game stuff back in, right, rather than backing them out?

Anyway, here's a box score for you:

http://www.gobison.com/custompages/fb/2000/ndsu2.htm

NDSU ran 18 offensive plays in the first half and scored 9 TDs. And it could have been more: An NDSU player intercepted a pass at the Dragon 24 and returned it 20 yards before fumbling into the Moorhead State end zone for a touchback.

Sorry for the derailment, nice thread.

When did they start including the post season games in the career stats? I'm assuming it started with the move to FCS but maybe that's a bad assumption.

If that proves to be true, gobison.com looks like it has the box score for all of the FCS playoff games, so we'd have 100% of the data to adjust post-season performances out of what NDSU is reporting as career and season records.

If we had all the data doing the opposite would be preferable, but 1) we don't have all of the pre-FCS post-season box scores (at least not yet) and 2) we don't have a deep enough lists of career performance to know if any of the pre-FCS players outside of the top-10 in a particular category should be elevated into it (though we also encounter this problem backing out FCS post-season performace, because when a player drops to 10 or lower we wouldn't know who to replace him with.)

[missingnumber7]

Wait. Probably add playoff game stuff back in, right, rather than backing them out?

Anyway, here's a box score for you:

http://www.gobison.com/custompages/fb/2000/ndsu2.htm

NDSU ran 18 offensive plays in the first half and scored 9 TDs. And it could have been more: An NDSU player intercepted a pass at the Dragon 24 and returned it 20 yards before fumbling into the Moorhead State end zone for a touchback.

Sorry for the derailment, nice thread.

And Russ Yeager ended scoring.

[tony]

When did they start including the post season games in the career stats? I'm assuming it started with the move to FCS but maybe that's a bad assumption.

The NCAA made the call to include postseason stats back in 2002. And, hey, I actually have a link for it: http://a.espncdn.com/ncf/news/2002/0828/1423821.html <- unfortunately, the article does not mention FCS/D2/D3 specifically.

[bisonaudit]

The NCAA made the call to include postseason stats back in 2002. And, hey, I actually have a link for it: http://a.espncdn.com/ncf/news/2002/0828/1423821.html <- unfortunately, the article does not mention FCS/D2/D3 specifically.

We were last in the DII playoff in 2000 and we moved up in 2004 so the only post season games that are in the career and season records have been during this run from 2010 to current.

[3Putt]

It's based historical game-by-game performance in the statistical category. Games played in the last 12 months are weighted 3, Games played in the 12 prior months are weighted 2, and games played in the 12 months before that are weighted 1. An average and standard deviation are calculated. In this case Dudzik's weighted average solo tackles per game is 2.22 and the standard deviation is 1.87. So 8+ would be a 3 standard deviation event (1 in 1,000ish).

I'm using a normal distribution curve which is very likely not a representative way to get after Dudzick's solo tackles, but at the moment a model that fits the data better is beyond my limited statistical education. The variance of actual football scores around betting lines is normally distributed so, you know, I had some incentive to understand how that worked. Anyway, I think I need a Chi-distribution or something. It's beyond me at the moment.

Dudzick has a 6, two 7s and a 9 solo tackle game under his belt in 52 games so maybe it's more like 2 or 3%?

Thanks for explaining. Your number is surprisingly close to the simple 1 out 52. It isn't going to be very often that you are going to get sample sizes as large as some of these players!

[FFBison]

Wait. Probably add playoff game stuff back in, right, rather than backing them out?

Anyway, here's a box score for you:

http://www.gobison.com/custompages/fb/2000/ndsu2.htm

NDSU ran 18 offensive plays in the first half and scored 9 TDs. And it could have been more: An NDSU player intercepted a pass at the Dragon 24 and returned it 20 yards before fumbling into the Moorhead State end zone for a touchback.

Sorry for the derailment, nice thread.

3rd quarter was a complete letdown.

[bisonaudit]

Vraa:

138 career catches (5th). Needs 10 to pass Smith (147) for 4th. Next week 1%. Best chance @ Mo St 11/15 31%.
2,158 career receiving yards (5th). Needs 75 to pass Holloway (2,232) for 4th. Next week 34%. Best chance @ UNI 11/8 38%.
21 career receiving TDs (4th). Needs 2 to pass McDonald (22) for 3rd. Next week 10%. Best chance @ Mo St 11/15 25%.

Slide1.JPGSlide2.JPGSlide3.JPG

[bisonaudit]

Keller:

Career FGs made 44 (2nd). Passed Pederson (42). Needs 8 to pass Bibeau (51) for 1st. Next week 0%. Best chance 3rd playoff game 19%.
Career Points scored 294 (T6) with Feeney. Needs 11 to pass Pederson (304) for 5th. Next week 24%. Best chance @ UNI 11/8 52%.
Career PAT1s made 162 (2nd). Needs 17 to pass Pederson (178) for 1st. Next week 0%. Best chance @ YSU 11/22 34%.

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[bisonaudit]

Heagle:

Career solo tackles 169, 1st all-time. On pace for 180 at end of regular season. Projected 191 if 4 playoff games are played.
Career total tackles 294 (T9th) with Evans and Monson. Needs 10 to pass Garvey (303) for 8th. Next week 7%. Best chance @ UNI 11/8 38%.

Slide7.JPGSlide8.JPG

[bisonaudit]

Dudzik:

Career solo tackles 127 (5th). Needs 6 to pass Dahl (132) for 4th. Next week 3%. Best chance @ UNI 11/8 33%.

Slide9.JPG