Realistic look at NDSU/ISU
Since the other thread has devolved into a complete mess, I figured there may be some people that want to talk about the actual football teams involved in the game. I’m an NDSU grad that follows the team closely, but I now live and work in Ames, attended all ISU home games last year and watched most road games.
NDSU (and yes, I am admitting we are FCS – 22 fewer scholarships than ISU)
-3 time defending FCS champs; 43-2 over last 3 years
-2-0 vs 2013 common opponents (K-State, UNI)
-New head coach is the former DC that ran the best defense in FCS last 2 years
-All time: 665-369-34 record, 11 national championships, 30 conference titles
Last year: won @ K-State; went 15-0; beat all FCS playoff opponents by at least 28 pts
The Bison return 7 starters on a fantastic defense, but must replace both starting DT’s. Linebackers (including backups) and secondary are very experienced, to put it lightly. Offense lost winningest QB in FCS history, a very good running back, a dependable slot receiver, and 4/5 offensive lineman.
New QB is has been in the program, but not taken many snaps that matter. By all reports he is very smart with a big arm, but is admittedly untested. Return very good RB John Crockett; transfer RB from Nebraska (King Fraizer) should get time right away, and sophomore RB Chase Morlock got considerable playing time last year. Return WR Zach Vraa, coming off arguably the best receiving year in the program’s history. Return 6-year senior TE, along with very athletic FB. Returning OL is Joe Haeg (very solid but moving from RT of LT this year). Projected lineman are big with some experience. Also return great punter and kicker.
ISU
-15-23 last 3 years
-0-2 vs 2013 common opponents
-Head coach Paul Rhoads is in his 6th year; has done well considering the Gene Chizik dumpster fire he inherited
-New OC Mangino expected to revive the offense
-All time: 507-610-46 record, 2 conference title (1911, 1912), 3-9 bowl record (3-5 since 2000)
Last year: 3-9; lost to FCS opponent Northern Iowa; won final two games against Kansas and West Virginia (who finished with a 3-15 combined record in the Big 12); 94th in total defense, 96th in total offense in FBS
The Cyclones return much of the offense from last year. Play calling was a trainwreck, should benefit greatly from Mangino (may have seen improvement if they held a fan lottery for OC position, last year was that bad). Strength of the offense will be the WRs, TE, and RB. WR Bundrage is great after the catch, big target, best big play threat. Have 2 young, highly rated 6’5” receivers that haven’t done anything yet. TE Bibbs is solid and RB Wimberly is a small speedy back, but depth behind them is spotty. Rohach will most likely start the year as the QB, was very up and down last year but OL didn’t help him at all. Did OK when he actually had time to throw, smart runner but not crazy fast. OL is fairly experienced, but was awful last year for the most part.
Defense was terrible…absolute disaster. Young, poor tacklers, undersized. RB Johnson from UNI shredded them in first game last year; lost to UNI at home despite being +2 in turnovers and winning time of possession. Lost at Baylor 71-7…please, just read that one more time. If you want to see how not to play defense, go watch that game. Lost at K-State 41-7. Return several starters in back 7, but that may not be a good thing.
My thoughts:
NDSU: replacing a lot on offense, but return several key skill position players. Should be solid at running the ball if new OL gels, and new QB should do well as long as he limits turnovers. Defense should be very good again as long as replacement’s at DT are serviceable. New head coach will run familiar system, but is new to the gig.
ISU: Offense has the pieces to be fairly good, depending on OL play and if Mangino can get it turned around by the first game. Defense will have to make huge strides to be any kind of an asset. Team will likely have to win shootouts.
With all that uncertainty on both sides of the field coming in to the first game of the year, it’s hard to see this as a blowout either way. I was at the last NDSU-ISU game in 2009, between ISU’s best team under Rhoads and an NDSU team in the middle of its worst 2 year stretch ...maybe ever. NDSU was visibly smaller and less athletic along both lines in that game. That will not be the case this year. I think this game comes down to OL play: if the ISU’s OL plays well, Rohach will have time and at least a chance to make some plays against NDSU’s tough secondary. If NDSU’s OL plays well, they will control the clock and dominate a suspect at best ISU defense.
I think it will be close, but I’m gonna say NDSU 27, ISU 24.
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Originally Posted by bigdaddykane
