Hot on the Rebound

[HerdBot]

I was wondering about turnovers too.

NDSU has lost the ball on 7 fumbles (at least 3 on special teams) and 4 interceptions. Last year, NDSU only had 8 fumbles in the entire season so fumbles are up. On the plus side, interceptions are down and teams haven't been running our turnovers into the end zone.

On the flip side, the defense hasn't forced nearly as many turnovers as in past years: 11 turnovers this year compared to 29 last year, 31 in 2011, and 37 (!!!!) in 2010. Most teams would be ecstatic to have only 11 turnovers so far this year. Of course, it only takes one game to really turn that around (like the 4 INTs NDSU got from SHSU last year.)

Picks are down curious are teams throwing on us more or less through 9 games?

[MAKBison]

#1 Can attribute to less picks for having a Cast on his hand.

[A1pigskin]

The only thing that will beat NDSU are turnovers and penalties. Otherwise Bison win. The Bison D-line steps it up.

[stevdock]

I have been concerned about that also, but from a bit different perspective. Creating TOs or other big plays defensively. I gathered all of the data to post it before, to compare the 2013 defense with 2012 and 2011, but then lost it, but recently found it (bug can't remember if I posted already). There are some interesting trends.

The 2013 defense is only giving up 12.2 pt/gm, compared with 11.5 last year, and 12.7 in 2011. So, very comparable. But big plays defensively, which I think of as sacks, fumbles caused and recovered, and INTs are substantially different in 2013 compared to the previous two championship years.

In 2011 NDSU had 41 sacks (2.7/gm), caused 17 fumbles and gained 10 of those, while getting 21 INTs. The Bison only turned the ball over 13 times, so they were a +18 advantage for the season, and averaged 2.1 possession changes per game. In 2012, the Bison had 35 sacks (2.3/gm), caused 24 fumbles gaining 16 of them, and had 13 INTs. The Bison only turned the ball over 14 times that year, and averaged 1.9 possession changes per game due to TO. This year, after 9 games, the Bison have 30 sacks (2/gm), have caused only 10 fumbles, gaining 3 of them, and have only 8 INTs. However, the Bison have turned the ball over only 11 times. The bottom line is that the Bison even in the TO department.

So, the defense is simply not creating the TOs they have in the past. Sacks are down a bit, I think because the DL is banged up with a lot of shoulder injuries. MWill has only 2 INTs this year. Most of you think he is playing great, but there is no denying that he is down in creating the big plays that the defense thrives on.

But, as I said in another thread, the offense is compensating a bit for the defense playing solid, but not spectacularly when it comes to their big play potential. The offense averaged 31.3 pts/gm in 2011, 33 pts/gm in 2012, and through 9 games is averaging 36.8 pts/gm in 2013, and I would argue that the differential is actually quite a bit more since the defense is not setting up the offense as they have in the past and aren't scoring as many points themselves as they have in past years.

So, the defense is still limiting yards gained and limiting points scored, which are huge, so they are playing well. They just are not creating the same kind of scoring opportunities for the offense as they have in the past.

Could some of these big plays on defense being down be caused by the offense winning the time of possession more so than in the past?? And I know someone said earlier that we are winning 3rd down on offense and defense more often than in the past. Means less plays the defense is out there. As you said sacks and turnovers are down for the season, but are they down per number of plays the defense is out there??

[DjKyRo]

Well, after losing to NDSU last year by a score of 49-7, the Penguins built a 28-7 lead at Illinois State only to give up 28 straight and lose the game by a score, then ultimately wound up with a four-game losing streak. That's the more recent sample size and the one I find most interesting.

[reformedUNDfan]

But as is typically the case with North Dakota State, the Bison can find a way to win.

Prediction: North Dakota State 31, Youngstown State 24

have they not noticed they NDSU has been manhandling conference opponents?

20
1
15
21
46
18

several of those not quite blowouts were pretty close to being blowouts.

[Vitojr130]

When YSU took it on the chin last week from an imploded UNI team, I assumed this was yet another late season swoon by the peggies. After all, didn't YSU simply play awful and get beat by a decimated UNI team?

Well, not according to Brandon Lawrence of TSN, who found this very unusual statistic about YSU and their losses at UNI.

Youngstown State bounced back following its last three losses in the UNI-Dome with wins. In 2011, YSU lost 21-17 at UNI before winning 27-24 at North Dakota State the next week. In 2009, YSU lost 28-7 at UNI before beating Illinois State and winning at NDSU to close out the season. In 2007, the Penguins lost 14-13 and rebounded with wins over Indiana State and Western Illinois.

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/t...ence/index.htm

To make it worse, NDSU has been on the negative side of YSU rebounding back after a loss at UNI. And here I thought it was going to be easy. Sigh....

Hey, we've already beaten some impressive streaks this season.

A certain Bill-Snyder-opening-game-winning-streak comes to mind.

[gizmo]

Sometimes a loss motivates a team and sometimes it's an indication of problems or weakness. YSU is still a very good team, IMO. Meanwhile, NDSU must compensate for losing perhaps the best defensive player in FCS but I expect them to be motivated by the loss Grant Olson. Call the motivation factors even. The Bison play their best on the road. Barring a series of misfortunes and turnovers, the Bison should pull away in the second half and win by 10+.

[BisoninNWMN]

The only thing that will beat NDSU are turnovers and penalties. Otherwise Bison win. The Bison D-line steps it up.

This here.

Bison 31-17

[bisonmike2]

http://www.vindy.com/news/2013/nov/1...tle/?newswatch

Jim Tressel will be inducted into YSU’s Hall of Fame. (Note to all those uppity NDSU fans who seem offended that YSU is honoring a “cheater”: Go soak your head.)

"Go soak your head" he says. Quality journalism.

I haven't heard anyone even remotely offended they they are honoring Tressel at the game. A couple jokes about tattoo's but that's about it.