Olson tackles watch

[bisonaudit]

Dom tweeted the Olson career tackle number (310) and wanted to know if the record (398) was obtainable so I've decided to step up my game and stop treating this as a footnote to the Jensen milestone tracking.

Summary chance of catching (assumes 4 playoff games)...
1. Budde 398 6%
2. Dick 391 14%
3. Fredricks 363 74%
4. Nelson 337 99%
5. Lecy 331 100%

Pictures:

Slide2.JPGSlide1.JPG

The game by game line graph you'll be familiar with from the Jensen posts.

The new addition is intended to show the cone of uncertainty in the results of the 1,000 simulations of the remaining games. The 7 numbers along the right and the corresponding lines in varying shades of green indicate (from top to bottom) the maximum, +2 standard deviations, +1 standard deviation, average, -1 standard deviation, -2 standard deviations, and the minimum. About 2/3 of the results lie between +/- 1 standard deviation and about 95% between +/- 2 standard deviations.

[Mayville Bison]

Dom tweeted the Olson career tackle number (310) and wanted to know if the record (398) was obtainable so I've decided to step up my game and stop treating this as a footnote to the Jensen milestone tracking.

Summary chance of catching (assumes 4 playoff games)...
1. Budde 398 6%
2. Dick 391 14%
3. Fredricks 363 74%
4. Nelson 337 99%
5. Lecy 331 100%

Pictures:

Slide2.JPGSlide1.JPG

I'm gonna have to sit down and watch you do these one of these days. I hate doing projected analysis, but that's probably because I don't know the correct way of doing it. Thanks for putting these up each week Audit!

[AKBison]

Bisonaudit, you makes my head hurt! Thanks for passing on the tweet though.

[CAS4127]

I'm gonna have to sit down and watch you do these one of these days. I hate doing projected analysis, but that's probably because I don't know the correct way of doing it. Thanks for putting these up each week Audit!

Bisonaudit, you makes my head hurt! Thanks for passing on the tweet though.

Meh, bet I could do it from on my Iphone calculator--if I could find where the calculator is that is.

That said, one would think that the "secret" formula Audit uses would include Olson's average tackles per game, and the amount of tackles needed to move up the list, and the number of games he for sure has left to play (which at this point should include at least 5), with couple of "y's" "x's" and "z's" along with a "/" thrown in hear and there for good measure

So, if Olson needs 21 tackles to get to #5 and has averaged 9 tackles per game, just multiply 9X5 (which is 45 btw) and there you have-->100% chance Olson gets to #5.

Pretty easy really!!

[DjKyRo]

bisonaudit is like the Rainman of football stats or something.

[JDZ]

bisonaudit is like the Rainman of football stats or something.

'course, the shower's in the bathroom.

[bisonaudit]

I'm gonna have to sit down and watch you do these one of these days. I hate doing projected analysis, but that's probably because I don't know the correct way of doing it. Thanks for putting these up each week Audit!

I wouldn't put a ton of confidence in the notion that what I'm doing is correct (it's not back tested, assumptions are borrowed from other places that may not apply, and no one's paycheck is contingent on me being even reasonably correct) but these guys help me get it done:

average()
stdev.s()
norm.inv()
rand()

I googled the cone of uncertainty graph.

[stevdock]

Dom tweeted the Olson career tackle number (310) and wanted to know if the record (398) was obtainable so I've decided to step up my game and stop treating this as a footnote to the Jensen milestone tracking.

Summary chance of catching (assumes 4 playoff games)...
1. Budde 398 6%
2. Dick 391 14%
3. Fredricks 363 74%
4. Nelson 337 99%
5. Lecy 331 100%

Pictures:

Slide2.JPGSlide1.JPG

I hate to point this out but you need to put these numbers to at least one decimal point, because right now you are saying Grant is guaranteed to get to #5. He could have some kind of season ending injury in practice today that would keep him at 310. Considering he has never missed a game, it's a very small percentage, but it is still there.

[Mayville Bison]

Meh, bet I could do it from on my Iphone calculator--if I could find where the calculator is that is.

That said, one would think that the "secret" formula Audit uses would include Olson's average tackles per game, and the amount of tackles needed to move up the list, and the number of games he for sure has left to play (which at this point should include at least 5), with couple of "y's" "x's" and "z's" along with a "/" thrown in hear and there for good measure

So, if Olson needs 21 tackles to get to #5 and has averaged 9 tackles per game, just multiply 9X5 (which is 45 btw) and there you have-->100% chance Olson gets to #5.

Pretty easy really!!

Trying way to hard to fit in with everyone. Just admit this whole technology thing isn't up your alley and your criminal clients will probably like you even better

I wouldn't put a ton of confidence in the notion that what I'm doing is correct (it's not back tested, assumptions are borrowed from other places that may not apply, and no one's paycheck is contingent on me being even reasonably correct) but these guys help me get it done:

average()
stdev.s()
norm.inv()
rand()

I googled the cone of uncertainty graph.

Part of doing analysis work is making everyone believe you are always spot on - and when/if someone does find a mistake, you have a backup plan to throw someone else's work under the bus

Gonna have to check out the cone of uncertainty graph as that might be the missing link.

[Gully]

"cone of uncertainty" love it