To anyone who thinks NDSU has no chance against K-State...
Long time lurker. First post.
Target audience is really anyone who things that NDSU has no chance of beating K-State, but I figured I’d try a mostly friendly crowd first.
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I understand that every matchup is unique. Teams can be very different from week to week, let alone season to season. Further, I understand that computer rankings and simulations have limitations and cannot substitute for what happens on the field, but they can offer some statistical insight into relative comparisons with a wide berth for the unpredictability of reality. With that understood, let's take a look at a few comparisons over the past few seasons – for fun – to show that an upset in the upcoming game is not a far fetched idea.
2007 - Appalachian State at Michigan
Appy came in as the top dog in FCS, having won the previous two championships. Michigan was ranked #5 in the FBS. Sagarin predictor scores had ASU at 72.01 vs Michigan's 88.73, giving Michigan an expected winning margin at home of 18.66 points. Massey had ASU winning just over 10% of the simulated matchups. On game day, ASU was up 28-17 at the half. It came down to the wire and a last second blocked field goal, but the FCS champions prevailed 34-32, knocking Michigan out of the top 25. True, Michigan may have been overrated, but they were still a quality FBS team that performed very well the previous year.
Comparison: NDSU is the top dog in FCS right now, having won the previous two championships. The 2013 Bison are at least on par with the 2007 Mountaineers by many measures. K-State had a very good year last year and may be ranked top 25 to start this season. Sagarin's predictor scores at the end of last season have NDSU at 79.53 and K-State at 89.82, giving K-State an expected edge of 13.29 at home. Massey shows NDSU winning 15% of simulated matchups.
2012 - Misery State at K-State
FCS bottom dweller Missouri State was only down by a touchdown at the start of the fourth quarter. Their Sagarin predictor score was 49.95 to K-State's 80.86, giving the Wildcats an expected margin of 33.7 at home. Don't expect the FCS champions to bow down after three quarters. If it is close after three, it will be close on the final score board.
2011 - Eastern Kentucky at K-State
Every matchup is unique. I get it. But really? Sagarin had EKU at 53.17 to KSU's 73.34, suggesting an expected 23 point victory for the home team. Yet it took a Collin Klein TD pass in the final two minutes to escape an embarrassing defeat by a much lesser quality FCS opponent than they will face on August 30.
---About the two most recent season openers, one could say that regardless of the level of competition, K-State pulled out the W in the end, which is what really matters. However, it would then be disingenuous to ignore NDSU’s results against FBS competition over the past three years. It is a given that K-State is a much higher quality opponent than the Bison have faced in their 3-0 record against FBS teams since 2010. But the fact remains that they have faced their competition on the field, regardless of how they stacked up on paper, and pulled out the W.
2012 Games
Linking common opponents has many limitations, but let's consider a short thread for just a moment.
Sam Houston State at Baylor: A very respectable FCS championship runner up team led Baylor 20-10 at the half. Baylor managed to score a couple TDs in the third to lead 24-20 before opening things up in the fourth. Good FBS teams often wear down lesser FCS teams toward the end of the game, but don't be surprised if NDSU is still playing their hearts out against K-State in the fourth quarter.
K-State at Baylor: The Wildcats had a rough game. Anything can happen when two solid teams face each other on the gridiron. I was broken hearted at this loss, because I think K-State could have bested Notre Dame, and I was looking forward to the FCS champions facing the top BCS team to start the 2013 season. Still, when looking at comparative scores, Sam Houston's 48-23 loss to Baylor is about the same as K-State's 52-24 loss, except that Sam Houston played them much tougher for the first three quarters.
Conclusion
By all measures, Kansas State should come away victorious on August 30, 2013. They are probably a bit bigger, faster, and stronger overall. They have more depth. They have a legendary head coach. They return an incredible O-Line that should be able to handle the very tough D-Line of the Bison. They are a solid team playing in a very favorable home environment. But anything can happen when two solid teams face each other on the gridiron.
Expect a Wildcat win on August 30th, but don’t be shocked by an upset. It will be a whale of a game.
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Originally Posted by tmcats
