Massey rating 2013

[gumby013]

I've been working on this system for the last three years. I think it's ready for prime time. I'll be doing full rankings releases this year after week 6 or 7. Not sure when enough games will have been played to ensure all teams are linked. The Ivys mess this up with their late start and limited OOC. I'll be ranking FBS, FCS, as well as an overall D1.

The game simulator was a byproduct of the rankings system.

[Kansas State U]

Here's the simulation for Bison vs all FBS and FCS based on last year's games. Home, Away, and Neutral fields. This is from my system, not Massey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...kE&usp=sharing

I obviously have no idea what your criteria / formulas / # of simulations that were taken into account to arrive at your conclusions, but I'll assume it was well thought out. My (serious) question is, under what scenario could you possibly have come up with even 1 win in 100 games at home against Alabama, let alone 8?

[gumby013]

I obviously have no idea what your criteria / formulas / # of simulations that were taken into account to arrive at your conclusions, but I'll assume it was well thought out. My (serious) question is, under what scenario could you possibly have come up with even 1 win in 100 games at home against Alabama, let alone 8?

I hadn't actually occurred to me to calculate how many simulations it runs for an entire season...so I calculated it. Just over 20K game simulations for 1 season. Plug all of the games in and let it run, it will simulate and re-feed the results back into itself about 15 times. The number of iterations is fluid. It keeps going until the variance from one iteration to the next falls below a certain threshold. But, the average seems to be about 15.

Actual game scenarios where NDSU wins 8/100 games in Fargo? No idea...but flukes do occur. FCS teams did win 10 games last year against FBS teams, and they will win more this year.

[GPSIT]

So is this "Gumby Ratings"?

[gumby013]

So is this "Gumby Ratings"?

No, I have a name for it and all the related domains, social media, ect are in place. I'm planning on launching everything week 1, with the first rankings out after week 6 or 7.

[gumby013]

For anyone interested, here's the full simulation for KSU.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...EE&usp=sharing

[MNLonghorn10]

Hahah @ Valparaiso

[gumby013]

Hahah @ Valparaiso

Campbell is even worse. They were the lowest rated team last year by a lot.

[BisonNeil]

No way Kansas State is 8th best DI team (12th for D, 12th for O) after losing what they did on defense and their all star QB. I see the Bison are ranked 57th (26th on D, 84th on O). Hopefully with everyone coming back for NDSU they are more like 40th and with Kansas State losing what they did more like 30th.

Looks like the pre-season coaches poll puts K State in at about #26.

[devin45k]

I like the information they have on there. I never knew the NDSU vs. SDSU rivalry was as lopsided as it is 41-12-1

Did not know we were 16-10 all time against Northern Iowa either.