2012 Massey ratings

[tjbison]

Or how shitty Colorado St. is.

yeah this is what I was thinking

[CaBisonFan]

Think we might be surprised with how good Colorado State is. We need to go there as the underdog. We should be.

[bisonaudit]

Wow Colorado State is only the 6th hardest game. Goes to show how tough the conference is

I think is says the Colorado State is the 3rd hardest game, 13 point predicted margin and 81% chance of victory.

I also don't think it's legitimate to say that Massey expects an 11-0 season for NDSU. While it's true that the system has NDSU as the favorite in every game the average outcome it's predicting for NDSU is 9.3 wins and 1.7 losses, not 11 wins and zero losses.

[bisonboone11]

Predictions (which are, of course, only worth as much as how much stock you put into them) equal out to 11.45 points per game. 2012 NDSU gave up 16.91 points per in the regular season. Obviously they're expecting some significant improvement on an already great defense.

Did you mean 2011 NDSU? If so, they gave up 14.91 ppg in the regular season, not 16.91.

[Tatanka]

I don't put much stock in the Massey Ratings. In past years they've been used to try to prove that a D-II UND squad was somehow better than a D-I NDSU squad. Just because they all of a sudden favor NDSU doesn't make them worth much more now. They are interesting to look at but at the end of the day without some sort of statistical analysis of past success I'm not in a hurry to give this any more thought.

[Bisonguy]

I don't put much stock in the Massey Ratings. In past years they've been used to try to prove that a D-II UND squad was somehow better than a D-I NDSU squad. Just because they all of a sudden favor NDSU doesn't make them worth much more now. They are interesting to look at but at the end of the day without some sort of statistical analysis of past success I'm not in a hurry to give this any more thought.

Massey's ratings were never really made to make comparisons between divisions, but for whatever reason he still made a composite ranking. Massey stated that the lower division (yes, even FCS when compared to FBS) were ranked higher than they should be (about 5-10 spots for FCS teams, 10-20 for DII teams), but without more connecting data there wasn't much that could be done about it.