Sagarin says

[bisonmike2]

I'm guessing you like the FBS too? I bet you guys wish this was played on paper. We will get you by 15 points.

The best part of looking at all these threads today is finding wonderful little nuggets like this. What a beautiful day!

[bisonaudit]

11-0 56.5%
10-1 37.6%
9-2 5.8%
8-3 0.2%

[westnodak93bison]

Ranked #50 according to Sagarin. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
Kind of amazing to see us ranked higher than teams like Cal, BYU, South Florida, Purdue, Iowa, Mississippi etc.

Us vs. the Trees this week. NDSU 71.24, Trees 59.40 plus three for the Trees being at home so NDSU by 8.84. We need to be ready!

[Hammersmith]

Things are pretty quiet in this week's installment, and don't expect that to change from here on out. Sagarin now has enough data that future changes will be incremental rather than abrupt. The only noticeable change is Minnesota gaining 12 spots because of their recent good play. NDSU and UNI continue to be the clear 1/2 in FCS, with a big lead over MSU(80), GSU(82), SHSU(84), and Wofford(86). The conference gap between the Southern and the Valley continues to close, with only one point now separating us. The Sky and CAA continue their slow slide.

Week 10

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
59  North Dakota State	71.75
74  Northern Iowa	68.81  + 5.49  + 8.00	+2.51
101 Illinois State	62.18  +12.12  +10.00   -2.12
105 Minnesota		60.77  + 8.43  +13.00   +4.57
110 Youngstown State	59.97  +14.33  
119 Indiana State	58.99  +10.21  + 9.00   -1.21
157 Southern Illinois	51.50  +17.70  + 6.00  -11.70
163 South Dakota State	50.60  +18.60  +24.00	+5.40
173 Missouri State	47.73  +26.57  +30.00	+3.43
194 Lafayette		43.40  +30.90  +36.00   +5.10
197 Western Illinois	43.04  +26.16  
235 Saint Francis-Pa	28.97  +45.33  +53.00   +7.67

Week 9

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
59  North Dakota State	71.24
68  Northern Iowa	69.42  + 4.46  + 8.00	+3.54
105 Illinois State	61.76  +12.12  +10.00   -2.12
114 Youngstown State	59.75  +14.13  
115 Indiana State	59.40  + 9.20  
117 Minnesota		58.85  + 9.75  +13.00   +3.25
154 Southern Illinois	52.58  +16.02  + 6.00  -10.02
165 South Dakota State	50.26  +18.34  +24.00	+5.66
175 Missouri State	47.66  +26.22  +30.00	+3.78
192 Western Illinois	43.97  +24.63  
196 Lafayette		43.44  +30.44  +36.00   +5.56
233 Saint Francis-Pa	29.79  +44.09  +53.00   +8.91

Conferences

Week 10
1. SoCn	58.08
2. GWC	57.78
3. MVFC	57.08
4. BSC	55.50
5. CAA	52.52

Week 9
1. SoCn	58.73
2. GWC	58.25
3. MVFC	57.27
4. BSC	56.05
5. CAA	53.86

[BisonNeil]

Great West conference #2? Give me a break.

[NDSUstudent]

Not that it means anything since the "predictor" is the best but we did jump to 41 in his sagarin rating and 26 in ELO-CHESS.

That just goes to show how messed up the BCS is, NDSU is almost a top 25 team in one of it's rating systems.

[Hammersmith]

Great West conference #2? Give me a break.

Yeah, it's total BS. I just ignore it and suggest everyone else do the same. While I list them in my list, I actually consider it a top-four and not a top-five. The Great West just has too many non-DI teams on their schedules and it completely skews their results. They are just a mathematical oddity.



And I sometimes get the feeling that a few posters wonder why I use the Sagarin numbers that I do and not the main column that everyone else does. Especially when the Bison are way up at 41 in the combined standings. It's because of that damned Elo Chess rating that the BCS forces Sagarin to use. As of last night, the Bison are the number 26 team in the country according to that rating. Does anyone really believe that we should be sniffing the top-25? The same top-25 that has LSU at the top? I surely don't. We're got a damned good team, but not that good. But a rating that high is what happens when you ignore just about everything except the W/L record. By comparison, last week the Sagarin numbers I use predicted we would beat Indiana State by 9.2. We actually beat them by 9. I think I'll keep using the number I have been and let the BCS keep using the BS numbers.

BTW, Bison over YSU by 2 TDs.


edit: Do'h. Took me too long to post again.

[bisonaudit]

11-0 83.2%
10-1 16.4%
9-2 0.4%

[MNLonghorn10]

every bcs teams need 5+ losses, then ndsu is in the rose bowl

[WRSDBison]

11-0 83.2%
10-1 16.4%
9-2 0.4%

BS. I want 15-0