Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

A little bored, so I crunched the Sagarin numbers for the rest of the season. I included all of our opponents plus any FCS team above us in rating. All stats are from the predictor column, and point differentials include home field advantage. I also included whether the team has over- or underplayed the Sagarin prediction in the games played to date. Sagarin is not well-connected yet, so attribute even less value to all of this than usual. Again, bored(and halftime Oregon/Cal).

			rate   predict actual	diff
72  Northern Iowa	68.32  + 0.22  
78  Georgia Southern	66.48
82  North Dakota State	65.46
121 Minnesota		57.58  + 4.80  +13.00  +8.20
135 Youngstown State	55.14  +13.40  
139 Southern Illinois	54.68  + 7.70  
155 Indiana State	50.74  +11.64  
157 Illinois State	50.58  +17.96  +10.00  -7.96
174 Missouri State	47.21  +21.33  
178 Western Illinois	46.55  +15.83  
182 South Dakota State	45.99  +16.39  
201 Lafayette		41.19  +27.35  +36.00  +8.65
240 Saint Francis-Pa	24.76  +43.78  +53.00  +9.22

So if we wanted to use Sagarin's data to project NDSU's likely record at season's end you'd get something like this. (Note: I gave Indiana St an additional 3 points as they'll be coming off of a bye week and assumed a 14 point standard deviation, both of which are based on historical NFL numbers because that's what I had at hand, don't know if they hold up for NCAA football.)

11-0 16.5%
10-1 37.0%
9-2 30.8%
8-3 12.6%
7-4 2.8%
6-5 0.3%
5-6 0.0%
4-7 0.0%

[Hammersmith]

Bored again(halftime Vikes/Cards), so here are the updated Sagarin numbers. As always, the predictor column is used rather than the rating bastardization. UNI and the Bison retain their respective #1/#3 slots in FCS, but Wofford replaces Georgia Southern in the #2 slot. The Bison remain at 82 overall, but UNI drops three spots to 75. Most of the Valley moved only slightly, but Youngstown took a hit and SDSU & Missouri State both had nice gains. The Bison remain favored in every game, and are favored by almost 24 this weekend. Sagarin is not yet well-connected, so keep using the giant grain of salt.

Week 5

			rate   predict actual	diff
72  Northern Iowa	68.32  + 0.22  
78  Georgia Southern	66.48
82  North Dakota State	65.46
121 Minnesota		57.58  + 4.80  +13.00  +8.20
135 Youngstown State	55.14  +13.40  
139 Southern Illinois	54.68  + 7.70  
155 Indiana State	50.74  +11.64  
157 Illinois State	50.58  +17.96  +10.00  -7.96
174 Missouri State	47.21  +21.33  
178 Western Illinois	46.55  +15.83  
182 South Dakota State	45.99  +16.39  
201 Lafayette		41.19  +27.35  +36.00  +8.65
240 Saint Francis-Pa	24.76  +43.78  +53.00  +9.22

Week 6

			rate   predict actual	diff
75  Northern Iowa	67.00  + 1.44  
78  Wofford		66.35
82  North Dakota State	65.36
130 Minnesota		55.42  + 6.86  +13.00  +6.14
145 Southern Illinois	52.56  + 9.72  + 6.00  -3.72
148 Illinois State	52.36  +16.08  +10.00  -6.08
152 Youngstown State	52.10  +16.34  
159 Indiana State	50.77  +11.51  
169 South Dakota State	48.36  +13.92  
177 Western Illinois	46.38  +15.90  
183 Missouri State	44.66  +23.78  
194 Lafayette		41.68  +26.76  +36.00  +9.24
242 Saint Francis-Pa	22.33  +46.11  +53.00  +6.89

MVFC sinks in the conference standings; SoCon clearly the strongest(yes, I don't count the GW; too small sample size, and 40% of the conference is ineligible).

1. SoCn	56.07
2. GWC	55.90
3. CAA	54.71
4. BSC	54.39
5. MVFC	52.44

[bisonaudit]

11-0 25.3%
10-1 42.8%
9-2 24.6%
8-3 6.4%
7-4 0.8%
6-5 0.0%
5-6 0.0%

[Twentysix]

Math....no thank you.

[westnodak93bison]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

NDSU 65.36, Misery St. 44.66 plus 3 for Bison at home-- so Bison by 23.7

[Strommer10]

After last week, I could see this game closer than 23.

[stevdock]

11-0 25.3%
10-1 42.8%
9-2 24.6%
8-3 6.4%
7-4 0.8%
6-5 0.0%
5-6 0.0%

So in other words there is a 99.2% chance of us making the playoffs with an 8-3 record, 92.8% of making the playoffs with a 9-2 record. And they are saying a 0% chance of not being playoff eligible (not meeting 7 wins).

[bisonaudit]

So in other words there is a 99.2% chance of us making the playoffs with an 8-3 record, 92.8% of making the playoffs with a 9-2 record. And they are saying a 0% chance of not being playoff eligible (not meeting 7 wins).

My calculation doesn't contemplate making or not making the playoffs but, yes, assuming that those records would be sufficient to get NDSU in, that's correct.

The 0.0% aren't actually zero, full stop. There's some small chance, ~1 in 2,000, that NDSU could finish w/ less than 7 wins.

Finally, lets be clear, these are just calculations on a spreadsheet, based on the Sagarin rankings to date. Those rankings aren't particulary predictive at this point and there are additional assumptions in the calculation about the value of a bye week and the standard deviation of actual game outcomes from the predictive model which may not be correct. The last two are borrowed from a more robust statistical analysis of NFL games (someone elses, steal from the best) but may not apply to NCAA football.

[Gully]

My calculation doesn't contemplate making or not making the playoffs but, yes, assuming that those records would be sufficient to get NDSU in, that's correct.

The 0.0% aren't actually zero, full stop. There's some small chance, ~1 in 2,000, that NDSU could finish w/ less than 7 wins.

Finally, lets be clear, these are just calculations on a spreadsheet, based on the Sagarin rankings to date. Those rankings aren't particulary predictive at this point and there are additional assumptions in the calculation about the value of a bye week and the standard deviation of actual game outcomes from the predictive model which may not be correct. The last two are borrowed from a more robust statistical analysis of NFL games (someone elses, steal from the best) but may not apply to NCAA football.

In any event, it's fun to read this stuff. At least there is a 50% chance it's fun to read.....but there is only a 50% chance of that.

[BlueBisonRock]

In any event, it's fun to read this stuff. At least there is a 50% chance it's more fun to read than 50% of what we find on Bisonville.