Sagarin says

[HandoEX]

go check out the score predictions on SIU's site. Jesus, I thought we could be pessimistic, they must think we are the Anti-Christ or something bent on world domination, lots of blowout predictions over there in favor of the herd.

If we lost to Western Illinois, our fan base would be behaving the same way.

[yellowstreak]

Check out how high Sagarin had us back in 2007

http://www2.k2pdf.com/export/6A63D2F...DSU04nov07.pdf

[Twentysix]

Check out how high Sagarin had us back in 2007

http://www2.k2pdf.com/export/6A63D2F...DSU04nov07.pdf

Wow that 07 elo chess has us at #14. Thats crazy.

[devin45k]

Check out how high Sagarin had us back in 2007

http://www2.k2pdf.com/export/6A63D2F...DSU04nov07.pdf

my jaw dropped

[EndZoneQB]

Check out how high Sagarin had us back in 2007

http://www2.k2pdf.com/export/6A63D2F...DSU04nov07.pdf

UNI's was #10...that must have been the year they won the championshi...err...wait...

[bisonaudit]

Wow that 07 elo chess has us at #14. Thats crazy.

That's the metric that the idiots who think that point differential is a moral hazard force the BCS to use. Which is yet another reason why the BCS is garbage. They pretend that the 'computers' provide an objective element to the process but they dictate the metrics the people running the computers are and are not allowed to use as inputs.

[yellowstreak]

That's the metric that the idiots who think that point differential is a moral hazard force the BCS to use. Which is yet another reason why the BCS is garbage. They pretend that the 'computers' provide an objective element to the process but they dictate the metrics the people running the computers are and are not allowed to use as inputs.

Sagarin must have done a DOE to isolate the most significant independent variables.

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin must have done a DOE to isolate the most significant independent variables.

I'm sure that he did, the guy's a genius. But if the guys writing the rules specificly exclude the single most important independent variable from consideration the rest of it doesn't matter much, you're likely to get a BS answer. For 4 of the top 10 teams you get an answer that's at least a touchdown different by including margin of victory in the calculation (PREDICTOR) rather than not (ELO CHESS). For Northern Iowa it's 11, for NSDU it was 12 at that particular point in time.

[TheBisonator]

Wow that 07 elo chess has us at #14. Thats crazy.

OMG, we would've been eligible for a BCS at-large bowl berth!!!

[Hammersmith]

A little bored, so I crunched the Sagarin numbers for the rest of the season. I included all of our opponents plus any FCS team above us in rating. All stats are from the predictor column, and point differentials include home field advantage. I also included whether the team has over- or underplayed the Sagarin prediction in the games played to date. Sagarin is not well-connected yet, so attribute even less value to all of this than usual. Again, bored(and halftime Oregon/Cal).

			rate   predict actual	diff
72  Northern Iowa	68.32  + 0.22  
78  Georgia Southern	66.48
82  North Dakota State	65.46
121 Minnesota		57.58  + 4.80  +13.00  +8.20
135 Youngstown State	55.14  +13.40  
139 Southern Illinois	54.68  + 7.70  
155 Indiana State	50.74  +11.64  
157 Illinois State	50.58  +17.96  +10.00  -7.96
174 Missouri State	47.21  +21.33  
178 Western Illinois	46.55  +15.83  
182 South Dakota State	45.99  +16.39  
201 Lafayette		41.19  +27.35  +36.00  +8.65
240 Saint Francis-Pa	24.76  +43.78  +53.00  +9.22