Sagarin says

[BisonNeil]

Do you really think CC would make it that far? Will be interested to see how they fare against Richmond, who I think will win Saturday.

I am still unconvinced that Richmond will beat CC given the chance. They have been up and down this year and have not faired that well against ranked teams.

[FFBison]

I am still unconvinced that Richmond will beat CC given the chance. They have been up and down this year and have not faired that well against ranked teams.

I guess my point was more about the inability of CC to make a playoff run that it is about Richmond's chance to do so. I think CC is under a lot of pressure to prove their season and a team that can come in and play solid defense is going to give them trouble. Really looking forward to watching some of the games this weekend while we heal up.

[taper]

I don't think this is Coastal's year, but I definitely respect them. Didn't even have a football team until 2003, then surprised everyone by beating Montana in the playoffs last year. In the cold. Great coach, they could be trouble in the future. I would love to see them again in the dome and maybe start an occasional long distance rivalry.

[Mayville Bison]

I am still unconvinced that Richmond will beat CC given the chance. They have been up and down this year and have not faired that well against ranked teams.

How has CC fared against ranked teams?

[Tatanka]

How has CC fared against ranked teams?

[bisonaudit]

Team....................... Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
#1 New Hampshire ----- 76.3% 35.9% 12.4% 2.2%
Fordham ------------------- 23.7% 6.2% 0.9% 0.1%
#8 Chattanooga -------- 66.8% 39.8% 14.1% 3.5%
Indiana State ------------ 33.2% 18.1% 5.3% 1.3%

#5 Illinois State ------- 60.5% 45.4% 33.9% 13.6%
Northern Iowa ---------- 39.5% 30.9% 22.6% 9.9%
#4 Eastern Washington- 79.4% 22.0% 10.4% 1.9%
Montana ------------------- 20.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0%

#3 Jacksonville State -- 85.5% 67.4% 18.0% 9.0%
Sam Houston State ------- 14.5% 6.6% 0.7% 0.2%
#6 Villanova ------------- 65.3% 17.6% 2.3% 0.7%
Liberty --------------------- 34.7% 8.4% 0.9% 0.2%

#7 Coastal Carolina ----- 84.2% 10.9% 4.1% 1.5%
Richmond ----------------- 15.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
#2 North Dakota State 87.4% 80.6% 69.8% 53.7%
South Dakota State ------- 12.6% 7.8% 4.1% 2.0%

[Tatanka]

I think Richmond is undervalued and could definitely spring the upset over the beach chickens.
Sent from somewhere on teh intarwebs

[Hammersmith]

thebootfitter hasn't been by, so here's the update:

Sagarin's Round 2 Predictions

						
Rank 	Team		       Sagarin	  Predict    Result      Diff

 35	North Dakota State  	77.72				
 85	Iowa State          	64.57     +10.71     +20.00      +9.29	
188	Weber State         	39.82	  +35.46     +17.00     -18.46	
232	Incarnate Word      	23.08	  +57.08     +58.00      +0.92	
128	Montana             	54.65	  +25.51     +12.00     -13.51	
123	Western Illinois    	56.12	  +19.16      +7.00     -12.16	
109	Southern Illinois   	58.36	  +21.80     +28.00      +6.20	
 91	Indiana State       	63.38	  +16.78     +17.00      +0.22	
172	South Dakota        	44.50	  +30.78     +40.00      +9.22	
 70	South Dakota State  	67.27	  +12.89     +20.00      +7.11	
 55	Northern Iowa       	72.01	   +3.27     -20.00     -23.27	
122	Missouri State      	56.15	  +19.13     +35.00     +15.87	
108	Youngstown State    	58.40	  +21.76     +24.00      +2.24	
						
 60	Illinois State      	70.55				

 70	South Dakota State	67.27	  +12.89
133	Richmond		53.32	  +26.84
 96	Coastal Carolina	61.84	  +18.32

						Total Diff:	-16.33	
	Home Field		 2.44

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team                     SOS  SOSRank   Conference					

 1	 35	77.72	North Dakota State  	56.09	129	Missouri Valley
 2	 55	72.01	Northern Iowa       	58.35	113	Missouri Valley
 3	 60	70.55	Illinois State      	53.63	139	Missouri Valley
 4	 70	67.27	South Dakota State  	59.99	106	Missouri Valley
 5	 71	67.26	Jacksonville State  	46.69	169	Ohio Valley
 6	 87	64.18	Chattanooga         	47.45	163	Southern
 7	 91	63.38	Indiana State       	60.71	101	Missouri Valley
 8	 96	61.84	Coastal Carolina    	41.66	194	Big South
 9	 98	60.68	Eastern Washington  	47.03	167	Big Sky
10	100	60.49	New Hampshire       	41.71	192	Colonial
11	104	58.97	Villanova           	42.69	189	Colonial
12	105	58.77	SE Louisiana        	42.48	190	Southland
13	106	58.70	Liberty             	51.22	143	Big South
14	108	58.40	Youngstown State    	55.87	130	Missouri Valley
15	109	58.36	Southern Illinois   	60.26	103	Missouri Valley
16	112	58.02	Sam Houston State   	46.76	168	Southland
17	113	57.89	Harvard             	32.70	227	Ivy League
18	118	56.75	Samford             	52.71	140	Southern
19	119	56.23	Idaho State         	49.58	153	Big Sky
20	122	56.15	Missouri State      	61.20	 95	Missouri Valley
21	123	56.12	Western Illinois    	62.84	 84	Missouri Valley
22	124	55.88	Fordham             	36.19	219	Patriot
23	128	54.65	Montana             	45.52	173	Big Sky
24	133	53.32	Richmond            	43.88	183	Colonial
25	134	53.13	Eastern Illinois    	50.24	149	Ohio Valley

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
ConfCat Conference 	     CentralMean  ConfMax   NDSU Rank						

P5	SEC                 	86.93	   99.04       12		
P5	BIG 12              	79.27	   95.65	6		
P5	PAC-12              	78.80	   93.88	8		
P5	ACC                 	74.45	   86.04	5		
P5	BIG TEN             	74.37	   90.66	6		
NA	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	67.49	   77.24	1		
G5	MWC                 	63.73	   78.10	2		
FCS	MISSOURI VALLEY     	62.33	   77.72	1		
G5	CONFERENCE USA      	60.16	   78.43	2		
G5	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	60.13	   75.16	1		
G5	SUN BELT            	55.49	   68.74	1		
G5	MAC                 	55.01	   66.24	1		
FCS	BIG SOUTH           	48.87	   61.84	1		
FCS	SOUTHERN            	46.20	   64.18	1		
FCS	BIG SKY             	44.31	   60.68	1		
FCS	OHIO VALLEY         	43.81	   67.26	1		
FCS	COLONIAL            	43.67	   60.49	1		
FCS	SOUTHLAND           	43.55	   58.77	1		
FCS	PATRIOT             	38.96	   55.88	1		
FCS	I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	38.72	   38.72	1		
FCS	NORTHEAST           	37.83	   47.68	1		
FCS	IVY LEAGUE          	33.73	   57.89	1		
FCS	MID-EASTERN         	31.08	   44.36	1		
FCS	SWAC                	25.83	   45.28	1		
FCS	PIONEER             	17.76	   36.88	1

[Tatanka]

LOL @ Big Fluffy /obligatory

[Bisonwinagn]

Sure am glad to see the top 4 teams in the country playing each other in the second round of the playoffs.