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Looking at FCS teams, there are only six teams that would be less than 21 point underdogs on a neutral field.

With an autobid from every conference, not 7 teams from 3 conferences plus one more.

Their highest was 63 in 2017. Since 2012 they have finished from anywhere from 94 to 63.

That is the most impressive thing to me, even if Sagarin is limited by the small sample size and FBS teams usually pulling starters when playing FCS opponents

After the semifinal, Sagarin has NDSU rated higher than every G5 team. Also higher than most teams in the SEC and Big Ten

Coming into the semfinal round, Sagarin has NDSU over EWU by about 13 points. That's close to the same point spread between NDSU and Georgia.

We might drop with Delaware losing and UNI winning by less than Sagarin predicted.


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For comparison, here are the Sagarin ratings for the seeds in 2017 and this year sorted by the Sagarin rating with the seeds in the left column.

2017
2 North Dakota State AA 76.20
1 James...

I thought there was one AP voter who always voted for the FCS champion in the final poll.

Forgot about that game. :(

Sagarin has NDSU rated above our next two FBS opponents in 2020 and 2024.


30 North Dakota State AA 79.03
31 South Carolina A 78.97
32 Colorado A 78.90
33 Boise State ...

It also doesn't take into account when a team is way ahead after three quarters and it's mostly backups on the field.

Four of the top 5 from the MVFC! Even last place in the MVFC is still in the top 40% of the FCS.

Preseason ratings for recent years:
2017 = 48
2016 = 36
2015 = 32
2014 = 46
2013 = 49