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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    NDSU -13 83.1%

    Sagarin is 17 of 22 in the playoffs. Probabilities suggest the algorithm should have picked 17.75 winners to this point.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    When I next get in front of my spreadsheet I'll post an official update but just eyeballing the spread of around 13 points. It should be in the low 80s percent chance. Sooooo jet lagged. But it's...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    I'll take the under but happy to be wrong.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Did you check Perth, Australia? That’s a long way from everywhere.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Doing over 8,800 miles one way this weekend to come home for the holidays. I wouldn’t want to play a football game after but I’m not a 20 year old elite athlete with professional support staff, I’m...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Yeah, they were the best team in the CAA and should have been the 4 seed.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Sagarin didn’t particularly like Weber either. Had EWU as clearly the best Big Sky entrant, and Weber as the “9” seed instead of JMU.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Knowing what we know today about all the playoff teams. They still should have played the first weekend.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    The problems are two fold. SDSU seeded 5 instead of the 2 they deserved. Maine deserved an away game over Thanksgiving not a bye and a home game the next week #buttautobid.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Sagarin is 15 of 20 so far. Probablisticly would have expected 16.1 at this point.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Playoff picture:

    Sagarin (Seed) Team............. Semi... Final
    81.63 (1) North Dakota State 80.8% 68.7%
    72.68 (5) South Dakota State 19.2% 12.3%

    69.74 (3) Eastern Washington 89.2% 18.6%...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Could be that Weber is better than EWU, but I’m not sure what that has to do with the composition of the semi finals as both are favored to advance along with the two best teams in the country.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Sagarin is 12 of 16 so far. Probablisticly would have expected 12.8 at this point.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Playoff picture:

    Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Qtr... Semi... Final
    81.63 (1) North Dakota State. 95.3% 79.9% 69.0%
    61.15 (8) Colgate................... 4.7%.. 1.0%. 0.4%

    72.68 (5) South...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    MVFC is that good. Deserved 7 playoff teams. Montana St is a bubble team based on Sagarin, third team out.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Less charitably, and more accurately, on the Duquesne/Towson miss. The model was off 3 standard deviations on the predicted margin. The equivalent this week would be Duquesne winning by 6 at SDSU.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Yeah. 6% or one in 17ish. If all the 1st round games were that lopsided you’d expect one every two years or so.

    Probablisticly, Sagarin should have gotten about 6.6 games correct out of 8 this...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Despite bye week and home field, two road favorites and a third that would be favored in a neutral circumstance. Props to the committee.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Playoff picture:

    Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
    80.90 (1) North Dakota State. 99.2% 90.3% 75.3% 65.2%
    52.99 Montana State.............. 0.8%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%
    ...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th best teams are in the top half and the 3rd, 5th, and 7th best teams are in the 3rd quarter of the bracket. Which, by process of elimination leaves none of the best 8...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    They shouldn’t have been seeded. But, you know, they won the conference auto bid so they must have been the best team. Wait, were we talking about Maine or Weber State?
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Playoff picture:

    Sagarin (Seed) Team......... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
    81.14 (1) North Dakota State.... 99.5% 90.8% 76.4% 66.3%
    44.67 Incarnate Word...... 29.9% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.....
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Good story. Bad headline.
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    The job may be somewhat more difficult and the results marginally less certain, but these are the exact circumstance when you want an objective, predefined and back-tested model to help you. When the...
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    Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    FCS in Sagarin top 100:

    Current 8
    17-18 8
    16-17 12
    15-16 6

    formula changed prior to 2015 season and digging out the predictor isn’t as straight forward.
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