(39) so gross
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(39) so gross
Fell just as far beating ISU by 400 than beating MSU by 22
Could've been worse... actually got some help from previous opponents like Delaware and UNI.
Previous NDSU opponents went 5-1 on Saturday (only one to lose was Butler). No idea how they did against their Sagarin projected spreads but I'd guess that UC Davis and UND might've still slightly underperformed despite winning.
I’m interested in seeing what the this weekend does to our Sagarin rating. Everyone we beat but Missouri State and Delaware won today. Check that, UCD lost in OT.
Eastern Washington cannot get to the mythical 7 Div 1 wins.
NDSU regular season record:
12-0 85.8% +30.0%
11-1 13.6%. -25.4%
10-2.. 0.6%.. -4.3%
9-3.... 0.01% -0.2%
8-4.... 0.000004%
opponent chance spread
@ YSU.. 93.5%. -20.5 -0.8% +1.0
v. W Ill.. 99.9% -45.5 +0.0%. -3.0
v. USD.. 98.2% -28.5 +2.0%. -4.5
@ S Ill.. 93.5% -20.5. -1.9% +2.5
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 7, Ill St 8) +1 from last week (SDSU 3, UNI 6, Ill St)
Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Sac St 5, Weber 6) no change from last week (Weber 7)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 3) -1 from last week (Villanova 8, JMU 2)
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 5 (Mt St, UCD, EWU) changes: Id St out
Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, S Ill) changes: S Ill in USD out
Colonial: 3 (Villanova, Towson, Elon), changes: Elon in
Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman
Last 4 in:
Big Sky (Mt St)
Colonial (Towson)
Colonial (Elon)
Southern (Wofford)
First 4 out:
Mo Valley (USD)
Southland (SHSU)
Colonial (Stony Brook)
Colonial (UNH)
FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
SDSU moves ahead of JMU with the loss. #Gameday