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2021 NCAA Tournament
NDSU has three automatic qualifiers in Franek, Weber, and Metz.
New rankings are out today and in the Trackwrestling rankings, Franek is up to #8 in the country. I think that will wind up being slightly higher than he actually gets seeded. I could see him seeded anywhere from 8-12, putting him with a very winnable first match and then squaring off with a Jacori Teemer, Kendall Coleman, Jarret Jacques, Brady Berge, or Justin Thomas type to get to the quarterfinals. He has lost very close matches to Teemer and Coleman last year, lost to Jacques in an early match this year, and has beaten Thomas 3 times. I'm hoping he has Thomas or Teemer to get to the quarterfinals.
Weber is all the way up to 15th in the country. He has a great record, has a great top win, and has a really long winning streak. If they take only this year into consideration, Weber could be seeded as high as ~10. There are only 2 guys I'm hoping he avoids, and they are #1 Marinelli and #4 Griffith. Early on, I would prefer he doesn't get matched up with Purdue's Nijenhuis and Missouri's O'Toole.
Metz is up to #22, which seems about right. Christian Lance, Tate Orndorff, Luke Luffman, and Deonte Wilson are matchups I'd love for him to get in round 1.
As far as NDSU's possible at large selections, most wrestling media outlets aren't predicting NDSU to get any at large selections, but Kellyn March and Owen Pentz deserve to get in.
March is up to #22 in the rankings and that also seems fair (although Rich being ahead of him doesn't make sense with Turner beating Rich at P12s and March beating Turner). Michael McGee is a lock to get a WC, which leaves 5 spots available. Drury will get one over March by beating him and placing higher at B12s. That leaves 4 spots for March, Heilman (NC), Medley (Mich), Sullivan (WV), Smith (UVU), Van Vleet (AFA), Greenwood (Wyo), Marten (CMU), Bianchi (formerly NDSU, now ARLR), Miranda (Stan), and Rich (CSUB). Rich beat McGee and has a good record, so he will likely get in. For the final three, March placed higher than Smith, Van Vleet, Sullivan, and Greenwood (although Sullivan injury defaulted out). My at large choices would go to: McGee, Rich, Drury, Sullivan, March, and Van Vleet. March's winning percentage hurts him, but his 7th place finish, and wins over Turner, Van Vleet, Skudlarczyk, and Smith are more impressive than most.
Pentz is up to #28 and I'd argue he should be a couple spots higher. He's behind some pretty decently large B1G and ACC names, who haven't had great results this year. They're higher than Pentz based on name and school alone. Pentz is helped by the weight having 7 wildcards. Tommy Penola and Tanner Sloan are locks, which leaves 5 spots available. Reenan, Pellham, Pentz, Hoffman, and Janzer make the most sense to me for the final 5. Wroblewski could get in, but the B1G doesn't deserve 3. Pentz' win percentage, 7th place finish, and wins over Hutchinson and Seely help a lot.
The only two other possible considerations are Dylan Droegemueller and Austin Brenner, who are both long shots.
Dylan is up to #30 in the rankings. Had Dylan gotten 5th, he'd have a pretty strong case, but he didn't. He's only lost to NCAA qualifiers, and Zollman from Wyo, who may wind up a qualifier as a WC. Dylan's winning percentage is below .500, but that's because he's had a tough schedule.
Brenner joins the rankings at #32. His only significant win is over Cade King, which I don't think will be enough to get in. Brenner is aided by his winning percentage (against largely backups) and by his 7th place B12 tournament.
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Just a feeling but I think a matchup between Weber and Robb from his old school Nebraska is in the cards.
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Flo Wrestling has March up to 17 in its rankings released today. Wrestlestat’s formula actually has March jumping up 25 spots all the way to 10. Seems a bit much but I’m thinking he sneaks into that last spot based on his schedule. Pentz is not in Flos top 25 which I think is wrong. Wrestlestat has Pentz at 22. When he’s wrestled some of the ranked people he’s been beaten badly which I think hurts him.
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
I'm watching Willie Saylor's At Large predictions live feed, and it is making me nervous. They're talking about the B1G bias and how some weights have inordinately large B1G bias at some weights. They're using 165 as a reference, but I sure that isn't the case at 197.
Free to watch/listen https://rokfin.com/stream/4354/NCAA-...ge-Predictions
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Rokfin predictions for at large selections at weights NDSU has a chance:
133- they did not have March in.
141- Droegemueller was not in, but Zollman, who beat Dylan for 5th was in.
174- Brenner was not among their picks.
197- Pentz was not among their picks.
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Flo doesn’t have any of the at large Bison making it
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Pentz gets in and March doesn't.
Absolute BS that March didn't make it. He beat Ty Smith in the 7th place match and Smith gets in. Van Vleet gets in, despite not placing at the B12 tournament, and having lost to March (even if it was an injury default, still counts). Sullivan got in as well, despite not placing at B12s
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
Dang it, really thought March deserved a spot!
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
The coaches did a terrible job at a couple weights, with 133 being especially egregious.
To further the March point. He beat the Pac 12 champion, Devan Turner. Turner gets an automatic qualifier, while Chance Rich (lost to Turner), Michael McGee (3rd in Pac 12), and Paul Bianchi (4th in Path 12) all got in. He has a better case than all 6 that were selected.
In the B12, he beat Van Vleet, Van Vleet didn't place at B12s. He beat Smith at B12s. Sullivan injury defaulted out of B12s and didn't place. I can live with Sullivan, McGee, and rich getting, but the rest are BS
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Re: 2021 NCAA Tournament
After a quick glance at The Open Mats 330 ncaa qualifiers list and what states all the wrestlers are from I noticed there were 3 from ND. Decided to see how that compared with the states around us in the Midwest. I never realized that Illinois was as prominent of a wrestling state as it seems to be. Note: I very easily could have miscounted or missed some
Illinois 28
Iowa 14
Minnesota 11
Wisconsin 7
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Nebraska 1
South Dakota 0 (would have been nice to see March as one here)
I know population plays a part but I never would have guessed that many for Illinois and I would have thought Minnesota would have more than they do.