NCAA Tournament Allocations

The first NCAA coaches panel rankings are due to come out very soon, and I thought I'd run down an alternative ranking service and where NDSU and the B12 stack up. Using https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...YAFBl/pubhtml#

125- Fleetwood is a lock for the NCAA tourney as he sits at #9. The B12 looks like they are on pace to earn 5 spots (Pich, Fleetwood, Montoya, Mackall, and Schwarm. Flores and Moody could earn spots too.
133- Sykora sits at #13 thanks to a very difficult schedule and is a lock for NCAAs too. The B12 looks like they have 5 locks in Fix, Gomez, Schmitt, Bridges, and Sykora. Nobody appears to have a good shot at earning a sixth spot for the B12, although Madrigal of OU is closest. The bad part here, is if Gross comes back for the postseason, he will steal an automatic qualifier spot from someone.
141- Sutton is 48th in the rankings amongst 76 D1 starters, while Degen would be only 71st. The B12 looks like they'll have 6 spots earned by Findlay, Demas, Alber, Brock, Parker, and Turner. If Sutton were able to wrestle, I would think he would have a shot at earning a top 6 place in Tulsa.
149- Van Maanen is ranked #26, which seems notably too high to me, but puts him on the bubble. Gfeller, Thomsen, Monserrat (on the heels of his great run he's on right now), Olivas, and Pohlmeyer all appear to have strong cases for 5 B12 spots. JVM and Jeffries are right on the bubble.
157- Knutson is 53rd, and Weber isn't ranked due to his limited matches, but would have a ranking right around the top 10. The B12 is weak here and may only draw one spot. There are a bunch of guys right near the bubble who could push the B12 to more spots. This would suck for Weber. Weber appears to have a decent shot to place top 4 in the conference, but this might be the only weight where that might not get you to NCAAs.
165- Rogers, Ashworth, Steiert, Romero, Fogarty, and Kiussis should earn 6 spots for the B12. Fogarty is at 14th and should get in regardless.
174- Lujan, Smith, Coleman, Bastian, and Mantanona all look like they could earn spots for the B12. De La Riva is at #35 and I don't see him earning an AQ spot. Hopefully, the aforementioned five and Hayden Hastings all earn spots, which would give De La Riva a good shot at stealing a spot.
184- Foster, Smith, Colbray, and Samuelson all seem like good bets to earn a spot, with Sumner, Hemauer, Carlson, and MacCallum all with chances to earn more. Otomo is at #56.
197- Eaton has had a tough schedule and hasn't won a close match against fellow bubble guys, which has caused him to fall to #34. Geer, Miklus, Seely, McLaughlin, Davidson, and Adams all should be on the right side, with Hokit Woodley, Orndorff, and Eaton all close. The B12 could have a ton of spots here, and a healthy Eaton would be a threat to steal a spot.
HWT- White, Orndorff, Andrews, Nevills, all seem like locks. Gremmel is right on the line and Metz is at 28 (Stibral would be at 27) and Isley could earn a spot too. If the B12 got 5 spots, I could see Metz stealing a spot.

The first coaches panel rankings were released today and I think it looks good for NDSU.
125- Fleetwood is number 8 in the rankings. The B12 is slated to receive only 4 spots, as Jay Schwarm and Sydney Flores are at 29 and 30. Alex Mackall is barely earning a spot too, so we could see anywhere from 3-6 spots from the B12.
133- Cam is #16 and the B12 is slated to receive 5 spots and they are all locks.
141- The B12 looks like a lock for 6 spots.
149- Van Maanen is somewhat surprisingly ranked 31st, which is a pretty good spot, especially if he can knock off Pohlmeyer later in the year and not lose to anyone who isn't ranked. The B12 looks like 6 spots are assured and Jeffries and Van Maanen can still earn more spots.
157- Right now Andrew Shomers is the only one who would earn a spot for the B12, but Mossing and Thomas are both ranked on the outskirts. It would be great for Weber's chances if the B12 can get 3 spots.
165- Fogarty is ranked 20th and the B12 looks like a near lock for 6 spots.
174- De La Riva isn't ranked and the B12 is looking at 5 spots, but there are a bunch of close calls. Coleman and Hastings are on the good side of the line, while Mantanona is on the bad side. 6 spots is doable and would be huge for de La Riva's chances.
184- 184 has a wide variance of outcomes. 4 spots seem solid with two more being right on the line with Hemauer and Sumner. Carlson is also ranked 33rd.
197- Eaton isn't ranked but this weight may yield the most spots for the B12. 6 Spots look solid, while Woodley is right on the line for earning one. McLaughlin and Adams are both ranked and just on the outside looking in, but could certainly earn spots. The potential for 9 is real.
HWT- The B12 is currently in line for 5 spots with Metz tied for the 32nd ranking. Ngati and Metz are tied for the 32nd spot and could still yet bring the B12 spots to higher levels.

https://gobison.com/documents/2019/1...4.pdf?id=14180

Here are the remaining wrestlers that we will see from the first coaches panel, including our guys.

125
8 Brent Fleetwood, North Dakota State
17 Rico Montoya, Northern Colorado

133
16 Cam Sykora, North Dakota State

141
9 Matt Findlay, Utah Valley
10 Dom Demas, Oklahoma

149
18 Henry Pohlmeyer, South Dakota State
28 Davion Jeffries, Oklahoma
31 Jaden VanMaanen, North Dakota State

157
33 Justin Thomas, Oklahoma

165
11 Demetrius Romero, Utah Valley
20 Andrew Fogarty, North Dakota State

174
12 Kimball Bastian, Utah Valley
28 Anthony Mantanona, Oklahoma

184
26 Will Sumner, Utah Valley
33 Zach Carlson, South Dakota State

197
14 Tanner Orndorff, Utah Valley
17 Jacob Seely, Northern Colorado
25 Jake Woodley, Oklahoma

285
9 Tate Orndorff, Utah Valley
32 Brandon Metz, North Dakota State

At this point in the season, I'm rooting for all of the B12 guys that are on the bubble to keep getting wins. The more wins they get, the more AQ spots the B12 gets, which gives our guys more chances to get to NCAAs.

For NDSU, Metz could still earn another spot if he wins out and gets a signature win over Orndorff. If Eaton were able to knock off Seeley and Orndorff and lose to Woodley, that could result in the B12 picking up two additional spots at 197 too.

I can't imagine Van Maanen is in great shape after his recent loss, so even though I want him to beat Jeffries, I wouldn't be distraught if Jeffries won that one in the dual.

The new coaches panel and RPI are out.

Coaches Panel:
Fleetwood at 9
Sykora at 15
Weber at 33
Fogarty at 18
Metz at 31

RPI:
Fleetwood at 11
Sykora at 11
VanMaanen at 30
Eaton at 29
Metz at 20

Here is my best guess at who would earn AQ spots for the Big 12 based on the latest coaches panel, RPI, and win/loss according to wrestlestat.

125 (6) Fleetwood, Piccininni, Mackall, Verner, Schwarm, Flores
133 (5) Gomez, Sykora, Fix, Schmitt, Bridges
141 (6) Demas, Parker, Alber, Brock, Findlay, Turner
149 (7) Monserrat, Degen, Gfeller, Olivas, Thomsen, Jeffries, Pohlmeyer
157 (1) Wright
165 (6) Ashworth, Steiert, Romero, Fogarty, Rogers, Kiussis
174 (6) Smith, Coleman, Lujan, Mantanona, Hastings, Bastian
184 (6) Foster, Colbray, Samuelson, Hemauer, Smith, Sumner
197 (7) Hokit, Davidson, Geer, Woodley, Adams, Orndorff, Miklus
285 (7) Nevills, Andrews, White, Orndorff, Metz, Ngati, Gremmel

I suspect we will lose several spots if OK State drops some guys down like they say.

Allocations are out: http://intermatwrestle.com/articles/21577

I'm still sifting through them, but right off the bat the B12 got screwed at 125 IMO, with Elijah Oliver earning an AQ spot for the B10 over Jay Schwarm of UNI/B12. Flores just missed one for B12 too.

133, 141, and 149 look fine. B12 got the 7 they deserved at 149, which means JVM only needs one "upset" and he is in the NCAA tourney, and he should* get 3 chances to pull one off.

Only one spot for the B12 at 157 sucks, but was expected. Thomas earned one, but nobody else did. The coaches rankings make no sense from a B12 perspective at 157

Kiussis barely got one for the B12 at 165, so Fogarty only needs top 6, which should happen.

174, Oklahoma State cost the conference 1 spot. I think there are 7 guys who are good enough for NCAAs at this weight, but with only 5 AQs plus Smith from OkSt, it'll be tough for all seven to make it. On the bright side, this weight has the most wild cards available.

Oklahoma State cost the B12 one at 184, and Carlson from SDSU didn't earn one. Likely no impact on NDSU either way.

197 got 7, which I think is only one too few. IMO, there are 9 B12 guys that deserve to get to NCAAs, but that will be a tall task with only 7 AQ spots. Cordell will have to likely win two good matches at B12s to qualify.

HWT only got 6 and I think the B12 has a legitimate gripe about not getting 7. Isley's win over Gremmel last week didn't even get him in the coaches rankings which is just weird. He was 21 in the RPI, so if they would've slotted him in right above Gremmel, the B12 likely gets 7. This weight is really even after White, and Metz has a good chance to qualify.