They are remarkably consistent on playing near the top of the MVFC and making the PO. Years they have lost games they are often close. Recipe for always being strong in Sagarin.
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I will start drinking Kool-Aid when/if the Bison beat SDSU and YSU back to back on the road. We'll see how this team looks after a two week break, UC Davis wasnt a world beater and that game easily could have went the other way. I see talent in this years team but Im far from putting them in Frisco at this point.
OK.
Here we go:
NDSU regular season record:
12-0 41.1%
11-1 41.6%
10-2 14.7%
9-3 2.4%
8-4 0.2%
7-5 0.01%
6-6 0.0001%
5-7 0.000001%
4-8 0.000000001%
opponent chance spread
@ Ill St. 88.5% -16.5
v. UNI... 88.5% -16.5
v. Mo St 99.7% -37.0
@ SDSU 66.9%. -6.0
@ YSU.. 85.7% -14.5
v. W Ill. 99.6% -36.5
v. USD.. 97.3% -26.5
v. S Ill.. 94.7% -22.0
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5, YSU 7)
Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Weber 6, EWU 8)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 3)
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, Sac St, Id St)
Mo Valley: 5 (Ill St, USD)
Colonial: 2 (Villanova, Towson)
Southland: 1 (SHSU) C Akr
Last 4 in:
Big Sky (Sac St)
Big Sky (Id St)
Southland (SHSU)
Mo Valley (USD)
First 4 out:
Southland (Nicholls)
Colonial (Maine)
Mo Valley (S Ill)
Colonial (Delaware)
OK. Need a math primer. Can those win total percentages be combined? As in there is a 82.8 chance that NDSU will only lose 1 game regardless?
Thanks Audit. Does this math assume the games are independent events from one another? In other words, losing or winning a particular game has no impact on the outcome of a different game?