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I suppose it is a little early in the season to put a lot of weight in Sagarin. But if I calculated it correctly.....
NDSU predictor = 68.79 Ill. St. predictor = 49.21 home team gets 3 pts so Bison by 22.58?
Obviously missing Heagle and Eaves changes things.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
5dimes has NDSU by 22.5.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
I read that Heagle is playing. http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/335476/Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Kolpack just tweeted that Heagle is out.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
wow that sucks. I wonder who will play in place of him?
John Pike replaced Heagle @ MN, so I would assume he will start.
Pike replaced Eaves. We're down both starting safeties now.Quote:
Originally Posted by KTF
Big loss for NDSU's defense. Linebackers are going to have to step up.Quote:
Originally Posted by tcbison
That said, I'm glad. In his interview, Colten said he was still having symptoms and I'd hate to rush him back into the lineup and put his entire future at risk (not that playing football doesn't entail risk no matter what - it's just playing too soon makes it much more risky.)
I hope he and Eaves get well soon - they are two of the best.
Yep. But playoff teams have depth and will step it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony
Yup Pike replaced Eaves and started. Bobby Ollman #10 replaced Heagle in the second half of the Gopher game.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Pike and Ollman are both very competant safeties! We wil be fine with these two playing.
This. Pike had a very quiet 7 tackles against Minnesota and did just what a safety is supposed to do - stop the big play. Ollman will be a little bit of a liability with his lack of game experience but he's turned some heads in practice and is a ball-hawk, so we should be OK. The corners are feeling pretty good about their matchups, I joked with Dudzik today about him being a ball and chain on their boy Tyrone. I wouldn't fret over it, though obviously it'll be sweet when our secondary isn't injured.Quote:
Originally Posted by HandoEX
As I said in the injury thread, Pike played very well in Eaves absence. Ollman however, I'm not sold on. He fell over on the last Gopher touchdown and the TE was wide open. Hopefully with a week of practice with the 1st team and a different scheme in place, that he'll he just fine. injuries are part of the game and players need to step up.
My boss is an Oregon State Beaver alumnae. It is great to see NDSU ahead of them. I have turned him into an NDSU FCS fan. He watched the whole NDSU/Minn game.
I'd like a comment or two from anybody who knows the Tampa 2. On the TD pass in the MN game it appears Ollman got beat but I have a sneaky feeling there was some LB liability on that play as well. Not necessarily on the guy who caught it and scored but maybe another player in the general area. It seemed to me Bobby had to pick or choose who to cover and the 1/2 second of indecision put him out of the play. Correct me if I'm wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by 8>1
Also, who would be the backups for Pike and Ollman? I'm assuming AJ is the 3rd SS? Or how about Littlejohn?
Regardless of the liability, on the replays you can see him getting up from "falling" down and there's no one else around at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
NDSU 65.46 Southern Illinois 54.68 plus 3 for being at home so NDSU by 7.78
Looks reasonable to me. I don't think this will be a blowout......but it would be fun to be proven wrong.....Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
go check out the score predictions on SIU's site. Jesus, I thought we could be pessimistic, they must think we are the Anti-Christ or something bent on world domination, lots of blowout predictions over there in favor of the herd.Quote:
Originally Posted by WYOBISONMAN
521-3 bisonQuote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
If we lost to Western Illinois, our fan base would be behaving the same way.Quote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
Check out how high Sagarin had us back in 2007
http://www2.k2pdf.com/export/6A63D2F...DSU04nov07.pdf
Wow that 07 elo chess has us at #14. Thats crazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
my jaw droppedQuote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
UNI's was #10...that must have been the year they won the championshi...err...wait...Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
That's the metric that the idiots who think that point differential is a moral hazard force the BCS to use. Which is yet another reason why the BCS is garbage. They pretend that the 'computers' provide an objective element to the process but they dictate the metrics the people running the computers are and are not allowed to use as inputs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
Sagarin must have done a DOE to isolate the most significant independent variables.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I'm sure that he did, the guy's a genius. But if the guys writing the rules specificly exclude the single most important independent variable from consideration the rest of it doesn't matter much, you're likely to get a BS answer. For 4 of the top 10 teams you get an answer that's at least a touchdown different by including margin of victory in the calculation (PREDICTOR) rather than not (ELO CHESS). For Northern Iowa it's 11, for NSDU it was 12 at that particular point in time.Quote:
Originally Posted by yellowstreak
OMG, we would've been eligible for a BCS at-large bowl berth!!! :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
A little bored, so I crunched the Sagarin numbers for the rest of the season. I included all of our opponents plus any FCS team above us in rating. All stats are from the predictor column, and point differentials include home field advantage. I also included whether the team has over- or underplayed the Sagarin prediction in the games played to date. Sagarin is not well-connected yet, so attribute even less value to all of this than usual. Again, bored(and halftime Oregon/Cal).
Code:rate predict actual diff
72 Northern Iowa 68.32 + 0.22
78 Georgia Southern 66.48
82 North Dakota State 65.46
121 Minnesota 57.58 + 4.80 +13.00 +8.20
135 Youngstown State 55.14 +13.40
139 Southern Illinois 54.68 + 7.70
155 Indiana State 50.74 +11.64
157 Illinois State 50.58 +17.96 +10.00 -7.96
174 Missouri State 47.21 +21.33
178 Western Illinois 46.55 +15.83
182 South Dakota State 45.99 +16.39
201 Lafayette 41.19 +27.35 +36.00 +8.65
240 Saint Francis-Pa 24.76 +43.78 +53.00 +9.22
So if we wanted to use Sagarin's data to project NDSU's likely record at season's end you'd get something like this. (Note: I gave Indiana St an additional 3 points as they'll be coming off of a bye week and assumed a 14 point standard deviation, both of which are based on historical NFL numbers because that's what I had at hand, don't know if they hold up for NCAA football.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
11-0 16.5%
10-1 37.0%
9-2 30.8%
8-3 12.6%
7-4 2.8%
6-5 0.3%
5-6 0.0%
4-7 0.0%
Bored again(halftime Vikes/Cards), so here are the updated Sagarin numbers. As always, the predictor column is used rather than the rating bastardization. UNI and the Bison retain their respective #1/#3 slots in FCS, but Wofford replaces Georgia Southern in the #2 slot. The Bison remain at 82 overall, but UNI drops three spots to 75. Most of the Valley moved only slightly, but Youngstown took a hit and SDSU & Missouri State both had nice gains. The Bison remain favored in every game, and are favored by almost 24 this weekend. Sagarin is not yet well-connected, so keep using the giant grain of salt.
Week 5
Week 6Code:rate predict actual diff
72 Northern Iowa 68.32 + 0.22
78 Georgia Southern 66.48
82 North Dakota State 65.46
121 Minnesota 57.58 + 4.80 +13.00 +8.20
135 Youngstown State 55.14 +13.40
139 Southern Illinois 54.68 + 7.70
155 Indiana State 50.74 +11.64
157 Illinois State 50.58 +17.96 +10.00 -7.96
174 Missouri State 47.21 +21.33
178 Western Illinois 46.55 +15.83
182 South Dakota State 45.99 +16.39
201 Lafayette 41.19 +27.35 +36.00 +8.65
240 Saint Francis-Pa 24.76 +43.78 +53.00 +9.22
MVFC sinks in the conference standings; SoCon clearly the strongest(yes, I don't count the GW; too small sample size, and 40% of the conference is ineligible).Code:rate predict actual diff
75 Northern Iowa 67.00 + 1.44
78 Wofford 66.35
82 North Dakota State 65.36
130 Minnesota 55.42 + 6.86 +13.00 +6.14
145 Southern Illinois 52.56 + 9.72 + 6.00 -3.72
148 Illinois State 52.36 +16.08 +10.00 -6.08
152 Youngstown State 52.10 +16.34
159 Indiana State 50.77 +11.51
169 South Dakota State 48.36 +13.92
177 Western Illinois 46.38 +15.90
183 Missouri State 44.66 +23.78
194 Lafayette 41.68 +26.76 +36.00 +9.24
242 Saint Francis-Pa 22.33 +46.11 +53.00 +6.89
Code:1. SoCn 56.07
2. GWC 55.90
3. CAA 54.71
4. BSC 54.39
5. MVFC 52.44
11-0 25.3%
10-1 42.8%
9-2 24.6%
8-3 6.4%
7-4 0.8%
6-5 0.0%
5-6 0.0%
Math....no thank you.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
NDSU 65.36, Misery St. 44.66 plus 3 for Bison at home-- so Bison by 23.7
After last week, I could see this game closer than 23.
So in other words there is a 99.2% chance of us making the playoffs with an 8-3 record, 92.8% of making the playoffs with a 9-2 record. And they are saying a 0% chance of not being playoff eligible (not meeting 7 wins).Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
My calculation doesn't contemplate making or not making the playoffs but, yes, assuming that those records would be sufficient to get NDSU in, that's correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
The 0.0% aren't actually zero, full stop. There's some small chance, ~1 in 2,000, that NDSU could finish w/ less than 7 wins.
Finally, lets be clear, these are just calculations on a spreadsheet, based on the Sagarin rankings to date. Those rankings aren't particulary predictive at this point and there are additional assumptions in the calculation about the value of a bye week and the standard deviation of actual game outcomes from the predictive model which may not be correct. The last two are borrowed from a more robust statistical analysis of NFL games (someone elses, steal from the best) but may not apply to NCAA football.
In any event, it's fun to read this stuff. At least there is a 50% chance it's fun to read.....but there is only a 50% chance of that. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
:bow:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
:hide: