Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

EIU would be 73.1% to make the championship and NDSU 85.1%. Same matchup 62 times in 100.

By this measure Sagarin thinks that the bottom half of the draw is marginally easier than the top half. I'd speculate the primary driver of that would be avoiding SE Louisiana. Sagarin likes them more than EWU. 4 1/2 points on a neutral field.

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How about what is EIU's chance for the different records like you showed for NDSU?

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

How about what is EIU's chance for the different records like you showed for NDSU?

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15-1 33.5%
14-2 42.0%
13-2 8.4%
12-2 14.2%
11-2 2.0%

Sagarin likes their likely quarter final opponent Towson more than their likely semi-final competition EWU, or McNeese.

Isn't it like 13 straight years the OVC hasn't won a playoff game or something ridiculous? I'd laugh if EIU laid an egg in their first game again lol

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

15-1 33.5%
14-2 42.0%
13-2 8.4%
12-2 14.2%
11-2 2.0%

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Damn, that is serious computer love, right there. I am officially scared of these guys, bad conference or not.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Damn, that is serious computer love, right there. I am officially scared of these guys, bad conference or not.

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There's a bigger gap between EIU who's Sagarin's #2 and his #3 SE Louisiana (7.90) than there is between #23 Southern Utah and #24 Butler (6.99).

I thought that we learned long ago to not trust computers so much!

Attachment 3324

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Originally Posted by cbline

I thought that we learned long ago to not trust computers so much!

Attachment 3324

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HAL gets a bad wrap. It was user error. ;)

Briefly looking over numbers earlier... did I see NAU in the bottom 1/3rd of playoff teams based on Predictor?

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Originally Posted by gotts

Briefly looking over numbers earlier... did I see NAU in the bottom 1/3rd of playoff teams based on Predictor?

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19th of 24. Though there's a pretty substantial gap down to 20 (3.10 points).

Team	Round 1
#1 North Dakota St.	80.74
#2 Eastern Illinois	76.68
#4 SE Louisiana	68.78
#7 Towson	66.67
#8 Montana	64.50
#3 E. Washington	64.22
South Dakota State	64.18
#6 McNeese State	61.14
Sam Houston State	60.74
#5 Maine	60.14
New Hampshire	59.96
Coastal Carolina	59.44
Jacksonville State	57.82
Bethune-Cookman	57.37
SC State	57.34
Tennessee State	56.14
Fordham	55.77
Samford	54.88
Northern Arizona	54.47
Furman	51.37
Sacred Heart	50.44
Lafayette	50.13
Southern Utah	47.80
Butler	40.81