2025 Sagarin Says

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Using today's ratings, we are favored by 26 points over USD at home.

---

Fair TBH... :cheers:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Using today's ratings, we are favored by 26 points over USD at home.

---

And to think...a month ago this was the game that was most concerning!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Using today's ratings, we are favored by 26 points over USD at home.

---

Yikes!
I like that NDSU has the 2 weeks to prepare for the ‘Yotes.
And the players gotta remember losing to USD the last 2 seasons so not a team to overlook…

I also worry about teams like USD who had big losses in the Portal.
They brought in a lot of transfers, so they could be a team that has trouble gelling early in the season but improves the further into the calendar the season gets.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NI4NI

And to think...a month ago this was the game that was most concerning!

---

Couple of road games are the ones I’ve had circled for a while, SDSU & UN_. I think they’ll both be a challenge. We haven’t played very well in Brookings lately and the same can be said for the last 2 visits up north.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 18>1

Couple of road games are the ones I’ve had circled for a while, SDSU & UN_. I think they’ll both be a challenge. We haven’t played very well in Brookings lately and the same can be said for the last 2 visits up north.

---

I am told this cannot be true, sir.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NI4NI

And to think...a month ago this was the game that was most concerning!

---

Once a season, it seems it's the games where we're favored by 26 that cause the problems.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Top 25 this week.

Code:

---

42        North Dakota State          AA        75.25        MISSOURI VALLEY
59        South Dakota State          AA        72.63        MISSOURI VALLEY
81        Montana State                AA        68.21        BIG SKY
84        Tarleton State              AA        66.79        WESTERN ATHLETIC
88        Montana                      AA        65.23        BIG SKY
103        North Dakota                AA        62.54        MISSOURI VALLEY
111        Austin Peay                  AA        61.48        WESTERN ATHLETIC
118        Southern Illinois            AA        59.72        MISSOURI VALLEY
121        Idaho                        AA        59.01        BIG SKY
125        Sacramento State            AA        58.23        BIG SKY
127        Illinois State              AA        57.96        MEAC
128        UC Davis                    AA        57.96        BIG SKY
130        Youngstown State            AA        57.57        MISSOURI VALLEY
132        SE Louisiana                AA        57.43        SOUTHLAND
133        South Dakota                AA        57.36        MISSOURI VALLEY
134        Northern Arizona            AA        56.91        BIG SKY
135        Incarnate Word              AA        56.47        SOUTHLAND
136        Villanova                    AA        56.36        COASTAL
138        Tennessee Tech              AA        56.19        BIG SOUTH/OVC
140        Elon                        AA        55.75        COASTAL
141        Chattanooga                  AA        55.75        SOUTHERN
143        Harvard                      AA        55.29        IVY LEAGUE
145        Holy Cross                  AA        55.06        PATRIOT
146        Rhode Island                AA        55.04        COASTAL
149        Stephen F. Austin            AA        54.71        SOUTHLAND

---

---

Tarleton still looks like they are probably #1 or #2. With NDSU in the other slot.

I genuinely think it looks like that only Tarleton and NDSU are title contenders at this point in time. SDSU and MSU have shitty offenses which will make them lose vs NDSU/Tarelton. Montana/UND are probably the 5 and 6 based on what I've seen so far this year, but I'm not sure if they are good enough to be competitive with SDSU/MSU.

Valley related: Southern Illinois looks WAY better than Illinois State. Like multiple touchdowns better.

I have my doubts about Montana State and South Dakota state tbh. Mercyhurst made it clear that Sac St isn't that good, and once again showed that Montana State's offense sucks. Drake made SDSU and USD look pretty similar, oof da.

I think the FCS has likely regressed to a 2 team race, and both MSU and SDSU have fallen backwards too far to have a real shot. And while its really neat that a new team is good (tarelton), that new team will be leaving for the FBS in a couple years."

It's also still sort of possible that NDSU isn't as good as it has seemed. But, I hope that isn't the case.

It's early, things could change, but the patterns are certainly emerging and repeating over and over.

Also, NR monmouth just dropped 51 on top ranked in the CAA villanova and won by multiple TDs.

Not sure what to make of Tarleton St. I guess we will see if they can run through their shit schedule. Remember all those year is Sam Houston destroying their entire schedule only to get punked in the playoffs?

I agree that USD, SDSU and MSU are very suspect at this point.

We will see what NDSU becomes this year but I won’t be surprised if it’s the Bison walking through the playoffs to another natty.

I won’t believe in any team outside the MVFC until they prove it against a top 2-3 team in the playoffs. Especially southern teams.


*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TAILG8R

Not sure what to make of Tarleton St. I guess we will see if they can run through their shit schedule. Remember all those year is Sam Houston destroying their entire schedule only to get punked in the playoffs?

I agree that USD. SDSU and MSU are very suspect at this point.

We will see what NDSU becomes this year but I won’t be surprised if it’s the Bison walking through the playoffs to another natty.

I won’t believe in any team outside the MVFC until they prove it against a top 2-3 team in the playoffs. Especially southern teams.


*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

---

Luckily the UAC is looking surprisingly solid this year (unlike the Southland most of those years Sam Houston rammed through everyone in that league). Tarleton still has games vs West Georgia, @ Abilene Christian, and vs Austin Peay so they'll get tested. West Georgia isn't eligible for the playoffs but those other two look like FCS playoff times right now (as much as you can by mid-September at least).

Tennessee Tech and Monmouth look undervalued by sagarin at this time as well.

illinois state, sac st, idaho, all over valued imo.